Election Day 2009

So we are finally here. Has it really been one year since Barack Obama was elected?

Off-year elections are always interest-challenged and in the wake of a national election, which is why the media will often pump-up the coverage of state and local races that would otherwise go unnoticed to most of the country.

The 3 races that received the most national attention are:

NJ Governor
VA Governor
NY-23 House Special Election

NJ is very close and I think it will tell us more about the polling on a 3 way race than the significance of the race. The incumbent governor, Jon Corzine is not well liked in the state, but is in a dead heat going into election day. Turnout and how those supporting independent candidate Chris Daggett wind up voting once they get in the booth.

The VA Governor race is following a VA trend of the governor race going to the party that lost the last presidential race. On top of that, Democrat Cree Deeds has run an awful race, showing that Dems can still be obstinate and ignore all good advice they are receiving.

NY-23 House Special Election is an oddity and too small to show much of anything other than how people outside that congressional district act. The spot is open because John McHugh left the post to become Secretary of the Army, so in a way, the Obama Administration has brought this about. This race is less a referendum on what is happening in the battle for the Republican party than it is a cross between a sociology experiment and a soap opera. The (one-time) Republican nominee, Dierdre Scozzafava was hand selected by the local Republican party, but her moderate views infuriated some local conservatives. They put forth and supported conservative candidate Douglas Hoffman. NY-23, a very Republican district which has not been represented by a Democrat in over 100 years, should have been a shoe-in for whatever candidate was on the ballot with an 'R' next to their name. However, for the last few months, it was a pretty even 3 way battle. Recently, Hoffman pulled ahead and Scozzafava slid into 3rd, behind Democratic candidate Bill Owens. In the last week, Scozzafava announced her withdrawal from the race and to magnify the 'Sweeps Week' style turn of events, also announced her support for Democrat Bill Owens. Now that is some prime-time drama!

If Bill Owens wins, that would be quite something in a district that is so predominantly Republican. However, whoever wins, will probably be spending most of their year in office campaigning and fund-raising for their defense in the 2010 mid-term elections. So don't expect the outcome to have much difference on the lives of people living in NY-23 during the next year.