Will the Real Republican Nominee Please Stand Up?

Today we get the Michigan and Arizona primaries and this surprisingly cloudy Republican primary campaign might get clearer. Or not.

Most pundits had expected Mitt Romney to have broken away from the field at this point in the campaign season given his experience from the 2008 Presidential nomination race as well as his substantial advantages in money and organization over the other candidates. As most of you know, the 2012 campaign has been a series of "Who is the Not-the-Romney today?". The last man (or woman) standing in that situation comedy series is Rick Santorum. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who lost his last campaign trying to hold his Senate seat by double digits, is somehow leading in most national polls. (BTW - Ron Paul, although durable and perhaps the only person other than the eventual nominee who will contest throughout the campaign season, will likely never wear the crown as Not-the-Romney of the day.)

However, despite leading in national polls, the Presidential nomination race is won state by state and perception by perception. Surprisingly, the actual delegate count rarely matters until there is only one candidate remaining. If Mitt Romney wins today in Michigan, which is his birth state, he will have at least stopped the talk of him not being the nominee until Super Tuesday on March 6th. However, if Rick Santorum manages to win Michigan, this will be a wide open race and may go all the way to the convention.

Interesting, the Republican nomination campaign hinges on the state that had its major industry bailed out by the Obama Administration. This bailout was and continues to be hammered by all remaining Republican candidates. Michigan is also a state where you can be registered in one party and vote in the other party's primary (although you are then recorded as having done so).

An interesting outcome and momentum shifter rests in the Great Lakes state today.