Sunday, March 23, 2008

Look, up in the sky, It's a bird, it's a plane...

It's a Superdelegate!!! Well, actually all 794 of them.

What are they? Who are they? Why are they? Most people don't know, but you can get a good idea how to answer all of these questions here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

For a good list of the democratic superdelegates and who they have announced they are supporting you can look here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_Superdelegates%2C_2008

How should the superdelegates vote?

Well, they can vote any way they chose. They are not required to vote any particular way. The debate is whether they should vote based on how their constituents voted, by which candidate they believe will do better in the general election or should they all vote for the candidate who receives the most pledged delegates. The third option actually makes their existence irrelevant, although that may be the only way to keep the party together.

Funny, but the two Democratic campaigns have opposing views of which view the superdelegates should take on how to vote. Imagine that! Interestingly, if superdelegates voted for the candidate that won their state Hillary Clinton would wind up with more superdelegates. (That might surprise Obama supporters who are promoting this option). However, even this option might not be enough of a gap to enable Hillary Clinton to win the nomination.

If you want to get a really good picture of the undeclared Superdelegates and what categories they fall into, you should definitely look here:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9266.html

The general election is a battle for electoral votes, not the popular vote (the 2000 election reminded us of this). So if superdelegates wanted to get a sense of how that might play out, they could go here:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/


Click on the links below the USA map for the electoral vote match-ups between Obama - McCain and Clinton - McCain using some state by state polls between the candidates.

These state surveys are very preliminary, so a good deal of caution is appropriate, but it is interesting that as of March 23, Clinton would be ahead of McCain 268 to 246 with 24 votes too close to give to either candidate and McCain ahead of Obama 231 to 292 with 15 toss-up electoral votes. Again, these are very early, and will probably change once the Democratic candidate is finalized and the 2 parties select their Vice-Presidential candidates.

However, at the moment, this has to give pause for thought.

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