While everyone was watching to see if McCain would select Mitt Romney, Joe Lieberman, Tim Pawlenty or even Tom Ridge, a private plane flew from Anchorage, Alaska to a small airport outside of Dayton, OH, where John McCain has said he will announce his VP selection today.
Sarah Palin, the first term governor of Alaska, appears to be the somewhat surprise selection to join the McCain ticket. Here is what you need to know about her:
At 44, she is the youngest and first female governor in Alaska history. Like Barack Obama, she is in only her first term a high profile position. Politically, she is known as a no nonsense person who has stood up repeatedly to corruption in government, especially in her own party. She is pro-life and a member of the NRA. She is opposed to same-sex marriage, but has enabled legislation to be enacted that provides benefits to gay state employees and their partners.
Socially, she is a very interesting person indeed. A hunter and fisher, she was first runner-up in the Miss Alaska beauty pageant when she was 20. Her husband is an eskimo and they live about an hour north of Anchorage. Like Joe Biden, she has a son in the military who is being deployed in the Fall (Biden's son Beau, State Attorney General in Delaware is being deployed as well).
This will have some very interesting implications for the Fall Campaign.
Friday, August 29, 2008
Democratic Convention - Day 4
It was historic, sufficient and a bit longer than necessary.
Barack Obama gave a speech that covered all the important points about why someone should vote for him. It was eloquent, but not particularly memorable. It had the crowd rocking, but the viewing audience was probably somewhat less carried away.
We will see what kind of bounce if any the Obama-Biden ticket gets. Their campaign's top people have already stated they do not expect much if any due to the Republican Convention starting just a few days later.
Barack Obama gave a speech that covered all the important points about why someone should vote for him. It was eloquent, but not particularly memorable. It had the crowd rocking, but the viewing audience was probably somewhat less carried away.
We will see what kind of bounce if any the Obama-Biden ticket gets. Their campaign's top people have already stated they do not expect much if any due to the Republican Convention starting just a few days later.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Democratic Convention - Day 3
The momentum of this convention continues to build.
Nice speech by President Bill Clinton. He reminds us why to date he is the only Democratic president elected in the last 32 years. Had it not been for term limits, he might very well have been the Clinton running in the primaries this year. He hit all the bases and made the best and most effective attacks on the Repubs to date. His best line was a 1-liner, but perhaps more cerebral than a zinger, "People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than the example of our power." Democrats just love to hear Bill talk and get super spun-up. Bill Clinton's biggest challenge yesterday was getting people to stop cheering so they could hear what he was about to say.
Since he is a nearby politician, I have know a lot about Joe Biden for a long time, but many in the country really just got a chance to know more about who he is and the path he took to get here. A very nice video, narrated by his son Beau (again, the next generation of these political families will be priminent in the next decade or two. How about a Clinton-Biden or Biden-Clinton ticket in 2024?). Other than the mantra "that's not change, that's more of the same" (not very inspired, but be prepared to hear it again), the best and perhaps most effective line that should be repeated was “these times require more than a good soldier — they require a wise leader.”
I think McCain is really in a tough spot to select his VP. He really needs a 55-60 year old with some decent name recognition and no obvious big downside who is a good debater. McCain's best bet would be if he could just run by himself, because it is becoming more apparent that whoever he names as VP will give the Dems more ammunition. No choice is likely to do anything more than perhaps lock down a state that is leaning Red anyway, but there is a lot to lose with his selection. It would be interesting to know how much the selection of Joe Biden and the Democratic Convention is effecting his final selection.
Lost in Prime Time, but making all the news headlines is the historic aspect to Barack Obama becoming the first person of color to be officially nominated to be the presidential candidate for a major political party.
If you want to actually hear the speeches rather than the commentary, change from CNN to PBS. What a nice change. You actually get to hear what is being said rather than what a few people think should be said.
Nice speech by President Bill Clinton. He reminds us why to date he is the only Democratic president elected in the last 32 years. Had it not been for term limits, he might very well have been the Clinton running in the primaries this year. He hit all the bases and made the best and most effective attacks on the Repubs to date. His best line was a 1-liner, but perhaps more cerebral than a zinger, "People the world over have always been more impressed by the power of our example than the example of our power." Democrats just love to hear Bill talk and get super spun-up. Bill Clinton's biggest challenge yesterday was getting people to stop cheering so they could hear what he was about to say.
Since he is a nearby politician, I have know a lot about Joe Biden for a long time, but many in the country really just got a chance to know more about who he is and the path he took to get here. A very nice video, narrated by his son Beau (again, the next generation of these political families will be priminent in the next decade or two. How about a Clinton-Biden or Biden-Clinton ticket in 2024?). Other than the mantra "that's not change, that's more of the same" (not very inspired, but be prepared to hear it again), the best and perhaps most effective line that should be repeated was “these times require more than a good soldier — they require a wise leader.”
I think McCain is really in a tough spot to select his VP. He really needs a 55-60 year old with some decent name recognition and no obvious big downside who is a good debater. McCain's best bet would be if he could just run by himself, because it is becoming more apparent that whoever he names as VP will give the Dems more ammunition. No choice is likely to do anything more than perhaps lock down a state that is leaning Red anyway, but there is a lot to lose with his selection. It would be interesting to know how much the selection of Joe Biden and the Democratic Convention is effecting his final selection.
Lost in Prime Time, but making all the news headlines is the historic aspect to Barack Obama becoming the first person of color to be officially nominated to be the presidential candidate for a major political party.
If you want to actually hear the speeches rather than the commentary, change from CNN to PBS. What a nice change. You actually get to hear what is being said rather than what a few people think should be said.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Newsflash - Expect McCain to Punt on 3rd Down
With 2 VP picks that could have some significant advantages, but some obvious downsides (Mitt Romney and Joe Lieberman), expect John McCain to name Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Pawlenty's biggest downsides are that he is much younger than John McCain and will highlight McCain's age as the oldest non-incumbent to be nominated by a major political party for President, he also is not as experienced in foreign affairs as Democratic VP candidate, Joe Biden and could get hammered in their debate. Since McCain won't stop anyone from thinking that he is relatively old, the age contrast doesn't hurt as much as some may think. As a governor, he has actually run a government unlike the 3 other major party candidates, all of whom are senators.
Pawlenty would make it 2 VP candidates this year who were raised Catholic, although he has long ago moved to an Evangelical Christian church. He is also considered fairly conservative, so that will appeal to the Conservative side of the Republican party who would have had trouble with either Romney or Lieberman.
As the Hippocratic Oath says, "First, do no harm" and that seems to be what McCain will be swayed by in picking a VP.
Pawlenty would make it 2 VP candidates this year who were raised Catholic, although he has long ago moved to an Evangelical Christian church. He is also considered fairly conservative, so that will appeal to the Conservative side of the Republican party who would have had trouble with either Romney or Lieberman.
As the Hippocratic Oath says, "First, do no harm" and that seems to be what McCain will be swayed by in picking a VP.
Democratic Convention - Day 2 Review
Yeah, now we're talking (and people are listening, even CNN).
First, unexpected star of the night was Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer who had a captivating, energizing speech, getting delegation by delegation to stand up and cheer. Even CNN talking heads listened. Expect to read more about him at some point in upcoming years.
A nice video on Hillary Clinton narrated by daughter Chelsea (who may wind up being the most significant beneficiary down the road of her mom's run for the nomination). Then a pretty well written, and exceptionally well delivered speech from Hillary Clinton. Lots of praise from the Obama camp and most news outlets on the speech. There are also the scattered rants trashing the speech like here, that have some points, but none that matter. People who were looking and listening to Hillary's speech through a similar lens are pre-disposed to never vote for Barack Obama. Although it is true that Hillary didn't provide any personal reference of support for Obama, if she did, she would have been trashed by the same groups as not being sincere.
Hillary did provide energy. She did make it clear who she supports and who she is against. Perhaps most importantly, she threw down some memorable 1-liners that we are sure to here again. "No way, no how, no McCain", will live on for some time. Another one was "We don't need four more years of the last eight years". Also a great line about the Repubs holding their convention in the Twin Cities being appropriate because it is tough to tell John McCain and George Bush apart. That one may not be repeated by people outside the media because Dems still want to keep Minnesota blue and too much of that line could insult Minnesotans.
As for Hillary's "sisterhood of the traveling pantsuits", some are never going to vote for Barack Obama. Of those, there will be a split between those who vote for McCain and those who stay home. Some may even write-in Hillary where that is possible. However, this speech created the path for the overwhelming majority of Hillary supporters to find their own way to complete their grieving and getting on with supporting the Democratic ticket. Once they can accept the results of the primaries and convention, they may look at Obama and realize he is a man with a very liberated wife, is raising two spirited little girls and supports the same slate of women's issues as Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama might be the most feminist candidate of a major political party in history and that fact should not be lost on any Hillary supporter.
One last thought - despite what was said around the time that Hillary Clinton conceded to Barack Obama shortly after the last primary, her Presidential aspirations and opportunities are still far from over.
First, unexpected star of the night was Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer who had a captivating, energizing speech, getting delegation by delegation to stand up and cheer. Even CNN talking heads listened. Expect to read more about him at some point in upcoming years.
A nice video on Hillary Clinton narrated by daughter Chelsea (who may wind up being the most significant beneficiary down the road of her mom's run for the nomination). Then a pretty well written, and exceptionally well delivered speech from Hillary Clinton. Lots of praise from the Obama camp and most news outlets on the speech. There are also the scattered rants trashing the speech like here, that have some points, but none that matter. People who were looking and listening to Hillary's speech through a similar lens are pre-disposed to never vote for Barack Obama. Although it is true that Hillary didn't provide any personal reference of support for Obama, if she did, she would have been trashed by the same groups as not being sincere.
Hillary did provide energy. She did make it clear who she supports and who she is against. Perhaps most importantly, she threw down some memorable 1-liners that we are sure to here again. "No way, no how, no McCain", will live on for some time. Another one was "We don't need four more years of the last eight years". Also a great line about the Repubs holding their convention in the Twin Cities being appropriate because it is tough to tell John McCain and George Bush apart. That one may not be repeated by people outside the media because Dems still want to keep Minnesota blue and too much of that line could insult Minnesotans.
As for Hillary's "sisterhood of the traveling pantsuits", some are never going to vote for Barack Obama. Of those, there will be a split between those who vote for McCain and those who stay home. Some may even write-in Hillary where that is possible. However, this speech created the path for the overwhelming majority of Hillary supporters to find their own way to complete their grieving and getting on with supporting the Democratic ticket. Once they can accept the results of the primaries and convention, they may look at Obama and realize he is a man with a very liberated wife, is raising two spirited little girls and supports the same slate of women's issues as Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama might be the most feminist candidate of a major political party in history and that fact should not be lost on any Hillary supporter.
One last thought - despite what was said around the time that Hillary Clinton conceded to Barack Obama shortly after the last primary, her Presidential aspirations and opportunities are still far from over.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Democratic Convention - Day 2 Prelude
This is Hillary Clinton's Big Night. Not the Big Night she wanted on Thursday, but it is her night.
In light of this, I wanted to shed light on one little change that would probably have had her speaking on Thursday rather than Tuesday night.
If the Democratic Primaries were winner-take-all for delegates (like most Republican primaries), Hillary Clinton would have wound up with 392 more pledged delegates than Barack Obama.
You may want to think about that for a bit.
If nothing else changed except that delegates were awarded the same way electoral votes are awarded, it would have been a runaway victory for Hillary. She started with a vast majority of the declared Superdelegates. She would have ended Super Tuesday with more than a 300 delegate lead (and that does not count Florida or Michigan). As the challenger, even with the slew of Caucus states coming up that would wind up padding Obama's total, he may have been forced to withdraw after Super Tuesday.
Certainly, if the way delegates were awarded were changed as such, there would have been changes in the way the campaigns deployed their resources, but it is unlikely that Barack Obama would have won California, New York, Massachusetts or New Jersey on Super Tuesday. As simple as that, it would be another Clinton at the top of the ticket.
In light of this, I wanted to shed light on one little change that would probably have had her speaking on Thursday rather than Tuesday night.
If the Democratic Primaries were winner-take-all for delegates (like most Republican primaries), Hillary Clinton would have wound up with 392 more pledged delegates than Barack Obama.
You may want to think about that for a bit.
If nothing else changed except that delegates were awarded the same way electoral votes are awarded, it would have been a runaway victory for Hillary. She started with a vast majority of the declared Superdelegates. She would have ended Super Tuesday with more than a 300 delegate lead (and that does not count Florida or Michigan). As the challenger, even with the slew of Caucus states coming up that would wind up padding Obama's total, he may have been forced to withdraw after Super Tuesday.
Certainly, if the way delegates were awarded were changed as such, there would have been changes in the way the campaigns deployed their resources, but it is unlikely that Barack Obama would have won California, New York, Massachusetts or New Jersey on Super Tuesday. As simple as that, it would be another Clinton at the top of the ticket.
Democratic Convention - Day 1
Deliberate setup of a successful Convention or wasted time?
It depends upon whether or not you are in the media.
There were lots of comments yesterday that there was nary a vicious attack on McCain, Republicans or George Bush. Where was the venom? Where was the blood and guts and savagery? However, the overwhelming majority of these opinions were coming from the media (actually, every one I saw was from the media, but I assume somewhere out there someone else must have opined similarly). If there isn't death or destruction, it isn't exciting news and this is the Political Newsfolks SuperBowl. Kind of like a great NFL defensive battle being viewed by fans of Arena Football.
High point of this hilarity - CNN doing a round robin of complaining about there not being any attacks on the 1st night talking over Senator Claire McCaskill of MO who spoke about McCain being out of touch with average voters. Errr, folks, shut up and maybe you'll hear something.
Despite arguably one of the most effective records of creating change in the Senate, Ted Kennedy has been a caricature of himself for most of his political career. However, his presence and talk after a video intro was striking and compelling and you plain have to give the guy credit for still having enough steam in his engine to make people listen and understand.
Michelle Obama's talk was a good indication that she knows how to communicate a message without sounding shrink-wrapped like many politicians. Nice intro with her mom narrating. Loved the kids with the open Mic with dad on the big screen. Were you also wondering what was going to come out of their mouths next? Most excitement of the evening. Ten year old Malia actually gave dad a chance to correct himself nicely on where he was speaking from.
Tip to the "best political team on television" (bet you haven't heard that before):
Have a glass of wine before you go on the air and mellow out a bit. If they were savagely attacking for 4 days, people would be turned off before Thursday. The good stuff will come, but not everyone wants to see people tearing each other apart. Weren't we at least hoping that with 2 standup candidates like Obama and McCain we could see at least some actual discussion on positives and moving forward rather than winning by not falling as far as the other candidate?
It depends upon whether or not you are in the media.
There were lots of comments yesterday that there was nary a vicious attack on McCain, Republicans or George Bush. Where was the venom? Where was the blood and guts and savagery? However, the overwhelming majority of these opinions were coming from the media (actually, every one I saw was from the media, but I assume somewhere out there someone else must have opined similarly). If there isn't death or destruction, it isn't exciting news and this is the Political Newsfolks SuperBowl. Kind of like a great NFL defensive battle being viewed by fans of Arena Football.
High point of this hilarity - CNN doing a round robin of complaining about there not being any attacks on the 1st night talking over Senator Claire McCaskill of MO who spoke about McCain being out of touch with average voters. Errr, folks, shut up and maybe you'll hear something.
Despite arguably one of the most effective records of creating change in the Senate, Ted Kennedy has been a caricature of himself for most of his political career. However, his presence and talk after a video intro was striking and compelling and you plain have to give the guy credit for still having enough steam in his engine to make people listen and understand.
Michelle Obama's talk was a good indication that she knows how to communicate a message without sounding shrink-wrapped like many politicians. Nice intro with her mom narrating. Loved the kids with the open Mic with dad on the big screen. Were you also wondering what was going to come out of their mouths next? Most excitement of the evening. Ten year old Malia actually gave dad a chance to correct himself nicely on where he was speaking from.
Tip to the "best political team on television" (bet you haven't heard that before):
Have a glass of wine before you go on the air and mellow out a bit. If they were savagely attacking for 4 days, people would be turned off before Thursday. The good stuff will come, but not everyone wants to see people tearing each other apart. Weren't we at least hoping that with 2 standup candidates like Obama and McCain we could see at least some actual discussion on positives and moving forward rather than winning by not falling as far as the other candidate?
Monday, August 25, 2008
One Good Joe to Go
Well, so far we are 1 for 1 on Joe's for VP!
Biden is Obama's pick for VP candidate. Lot's being said about the choice, but other than the stuff that made is own presidential candidacy a long shot (the plagarism thing and the verbal gaffs like the one about 7/11) most everything else is pretty positive, even from the other side of the aisle.
The Repubs will hammer on these 2 things, mostly because that is all they have. Although we hold a presidential candidate to a very high standard, my guess is that the plagarism and verbal gaffs won't carry much sway with voters on a VP candidate.
Here is how the chess match of the Election Changes: Repubs are now going to be very challenged to hammer on the national defense chord, because the Dems now have perhaps their most knowledgeable defense guy on the ticket. On the other hand, even though Biden looks a lot more fit and spry than McCain, he is only a few years younger, so the Dems won't be hammering the age issue quite as much.
Biden commutes back and forth from Wilmington to DC every day (I know, I met him on an Amtrak train several years ago) to return to his only home, where he is a daily daddy. He and his wife took a second mortgage on their house to pay for their kid's college education. So he has a long daily commute, owns just one home and is in debt to take care of his kids. You want to bet how much that gets played up to contrast with McCain's 10+ homes? If the battle ground is the moderates in key states, many of whom are blue collars families, guess who just got a big edge?
So how does this choice effect McCain's? Romney is still the best person to put on his ticket, but if McCain does so, it will be throwing gasoline on the fire of his image of rich and privileged. He should probably still pick Romney, but I think it makes a second Joe a stronger possibility. If Joe Lieberman is McCain's pick, he could be the first person to be nominated and lose as a VP candidate for both parties. It would make that October 2nd VP debate a doozy.
Biden is Obama's pick for VP candidate. Lot's being said about the choice, but other than the stuff that made is own presidential candidacy a long shot (the plagarism thing and the verbal gaffs like the one about 7/11) most everything else is pretty positive, even from the other side of the aisle.
The Repubs will hammer on these 2 things, mostly because that is all they have. Although we hold a presidential candidate to a very high standard, my guess is that the plagarism and verbal gaffs won't carry much sway with voters on a VP candidate.
Here is how the chess match of the Election Changes: Repubs are now going to be very challenged to hammer on the national defense chord, because the Dems now have perhaps their most knowledgeable defense guy on the ticket. On the other hand, even though Biden looks a lot more fit and spry than McCain, he is only a few years younger, so the Dems won't be hammering the age issue quite as much.
Biden commutes back and forth from Wilmington to DC every day (I know, I met him on an Amtrak train several years ago) to return to his only home, where he is a daily daddy. He and his wife took a second mortgage on their house to pay for their kid's college education. So he has a long daily commute, owns just one home and is in debt to take care of his kids. You want to bet how much that gets played up to contrast with McCain's 10+ homes? If the battle ground is the moderates in key states, many of whom are blue collars families, guess who just got a big edge?
So how does this choice effect McCain's? Romney is still the best person to put on his ticket, but if McCain does so, it will be throwing gasoline on the fire of his image of rich and privileged. He should probably still pick Romney, but I think it makes a second Joe a stronger possibility. If Joe Lieberman is McCain's pick, he could be the first person to be nominated and lose as a VP candidate for both parties. It would make that October 2nd VP debate a doozy.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
A Cup(le) of Joes for VP?
After taking a bit of the summer off, we are back to point out where things are headed.
VP announcements coming up. Could be any of about a half dozen on both sides. Strategically, I think the best choices for the candidates are Mitt Romney for McCain and Tim Kaine for Obama. However, it rarely breaks that way. That's why my money is on a couple of Joes.
Joe Biden has been mentioned a lot lately as Obama's VP choice. That usually means it won't happen, but in this case, I think it might. Biden gives a bit more experience and foreign affairs weight to the ticket, but that won't add too much to the actual election results. I think they work well together and complement one another and that seems to be what Obama is most interested in. I personally like Evan Bayh as the VP choice. If Clinton-Gore was nicknamed "Double Bubba", what would this Illinois-Indiana pairing be called, "Double I"? (not a lot of good nicknames for midwesterners).
On the Republican side, the word McCain has tried to push hard the last few months is 'maverick'. Tough to go more maverick than to select someone from (ostensibly) the other aisle as your VP. Joe Lieberman is a risky choice, but could give McCain the rare situation where a VP actually makes a difference. He wouldn't carry his home state of Conneticut, but he would stand a very good chance of helping McCain battle for the moderates and lock down Florida.
Two-thirds of voters are already set in who they will vote for in November. Another 15-20% are leaning heavily toward one or the other. The remaining 15-20% of voters are where the action is and even among those, only the ones in about 10 states have a chance to change the outcome. In every one of these cases, the state will go to those who convince the moderates/independents who is most capable of leading the country with an even and reliable hand.
Whatever the final choices are, we will know in a few days.
VP announcements coming up. Could be any of about a half dozen on both sides. Strategically, I think the best choices for the candidates are Mitt Romney for McCain and Tim Kaine for Obama. However, it rarely breaks that way. That's why my money is on a couple of Joes.
Joe Biden has been mentioned a lot lately as Obama's VP choice. That usually means it won't happen, but in this case, I think it might. Biden gives a bit more experience and foreign affairs weight to the ticket, but that won't add too much to the actual election results. I think they work well together and complement one another and that seems to be what Obama is most interested in. I personally like Evan Bayh as the VP choice. If Clinton-Gore was nicknamed "Double Bubba", what would this Illinois-Indiana pairing be called, "Double I"? (not a lot of good nicknames for midwesterners).
On the Republican side, the word McCain has tried to push hard the last few months is 'maverick'. Tough to go more maverick than to select someone from (ostensibly) the other aisle as your VP. Joe Lieberman is a risky choice, but could give McCain the rare situation where a VP actually makes a difference. He wouldn't carry his home state of Conneticut, but he would stand a very good chance of helping McCain battle for the moderates and lock down Florida.
Two-thirds of voters are already set in who they will vote for in November. Another 15-20% are leaning heavily toward one or the other. The remaining 15-20% of voters are where the action is and even among those, only the ones in about 10 states have a chance to change the outcome. In every one of these cases, the state will go to those who convince the moderates/independents who is most capable of leading the country with an even and reliable hand.
Whatever the final choices are, we will know in a few days.
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