Will Massachusetts Special Election for Senator Derail Health Care Reform?

Today there will be an unusual event in more ways than one.

Massachusetts is conducting a special election to fill the remainder of the term held by the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Massachusetts is perhaps the Bluest of all states and conventional wisdom would indicate that any Democrat with a pulse could win a statewide election. Well, Martha Coakley is showing that her beating heart is not enough as a "Perfect Storm" of events now has Republican candidate Scott Brown leading in most polls.

Special elections typically have low turnouts, especially if the state has a partisan electorate. The Republican election machine is back in full force and resources from around the nation have been focused on Massachusetts. Martha Coakley has run a spectacularly awful campaign, seemingly trying to outdo Creigh Deeds and Jon Corzine.

But, the key point that has gotten everyone hyped about this special election for the Senate is that a Republican win would give them 41 votes in the Senate and would enable them to filibuster any legislation, most especially the Health Care Reform bill that still needs to come back from House-Senate reconciliation.

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com does a wonderful job again analyzing the polling available and gives Coakley only a 25% chance of winning today. I am inclined to agree with his analysis, but Nate does hedge a bit and I have a sense that may be a well placed hedge. It would not surprise me if Democratic voters who are totally unhappy with Coakley as a candidate are willing to go out and vote against the very real chance of a Republican senator in Massachusetts who winds up stopping the Health Care Reform bill that was the lifelong ambition of their dearly departed Senator Kennedy. So whereas these Democrats were unlikely to respond to any polls or put up any lawn signs for Coakley, they are fine with going into a booth and pulling a lever in the same column as usual.

There are also many thoughts on how the Democrats would pass Health Care Reform even without 60 votes in the Senate. The State of the Union address was just announced as being an earlier than expected January 27th. Don't think this timing is without great significance. If Brown wins, he would not be seated until a challenge is settled and the results of the election are signed by the Governor and State Secretary (both are Democrats). The full time-line of how this would proceed can be found in a good article at Talking Points Memo. It looks like if Brown wins, he would not be seated in the Senate until at least January 29th. Until Brown is seated, current interim Senator, Paul Kirk (D-MA) would still be representing Massachusetts and be able to vote in favor of Health Care Reform.

If Brown wins, expect the Democrats to push through a vote in the House and Senate to give approval to a reconciled Health Care Reform bill before he is seated.

As Betty Davis said in All About Eve, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!"