On the Edge of Health Care Reform

I was initially going to title this post something along the lines of why I thought Health Care Reform would pass. Well, today, Congressman Dennis Kucinich changed his long-standing opposition to the bill from the Left and announced that he will vote for the Senate Health Care bill. That makes this article less of a call the outcome than state the impending obvious...that the House will approve the bill crafted and approved by the Senate. Kucinich is the first of several previously undecided or opposed Congressmen who will use press conferences in the next few days to say they have decided to vote in favor of HCR. The White House has put on a substantial full-court-press the past few days and the impact is being felt.

It will probably happen this weekend. As for procedural matters, it appears they will also subsequently pass a bill making changes to the bill (remove the Cornhusker kickback, etc.) and the Senate can pass that under reconciliation as all the items are budgetary in nature, and they would then need just a simple majority of 50 votes rather than a super-majority of 60 to prevent a filibuster. (I know 50 isn't a majority of the 100 member senate, but in the event of a tie, Vice-President Biden votes as well and that is the surest vote on HCR President Obama has ever had.)

I was also going to write that as the Democrats seemed about 50-50 to pass the bill, I gave the edge to Nancy Pelosi to find a way to twist enough arms to get the 216 votes needed to pass HCR at this time (due to a death and 3 resignations, the 50% plus 1 mark dropped from the standard 218 to 216). I am betting she gets 217-218, with 1 or 2 votes to spare, just in case there was a last minute defection.

Say what you want about Nancy Pelosi, but she will go down as one of the most successful and effective House Speakers in history. My money is on Nancy to bring in the herd at 216 or above.

We have been in the midst of this battle so long and have heard so much from both sides on the positives and negatives of HCR, that few have spent time thinking about the gravitas of the event if/when this bill passes. If/when this HCR bill passes, people will realize the historic nature of this social legislation. (No, it is not a socialist takeover of 16% of the economy - you may have heard or read that - but it is another building block in our society). Presidents for decades have tried and failed to pass health care reform...and Barack Obama will have accomplished it. The United States will join the ranks of every other developed nation in the world in providing health care coverage to ALL of its citizens. (No, HCR does not provide health insurance for illegal aliens, but yes as a member of a responsible society we should all feel it is appropriate to provide health care to illegals in need of medical attention)

Also in the news today is the Senate passing the Jobs Bill...with 11 Republicans on-board. The bill is ready to be signed by President Obama. That would be 2 significant accomplishments inside of a week. (The jobs bill pares in comparison to HCR in its impact, but it will have disproportionate good PR effects) We may very well be at the high point of projections for 2010 Republican gains in the House and Senate.

Also, HCR will not be static. Unfortunately, everyone wanted 'their stuff' in the first pass. There are still so many more things that can and will happen. Tort Reform, inter-state competition, end-of-life choice empowerment (previously referred to as 'Death Squads' by those opposed) and many other items that if handled individually, will probably garner some bi-partisan support. HCR will be a continuously evolving concept, but the ball had to start somewhere and the biggest hole was the uninsured and pre-existing condition exclusions.

The entire view of the Obama Presidency is about to change.