This should have surprised precisely nobody, but I am sure that there were some puzzled, disappointed and relieved people Monday when Donald Trump announced that running for President wasn't worth giving up saying "You're Fired!" each week on national television.
The title of this post is a bridge term and Donald Trump is a bridge to very few things other than perhaps turning the 2012 Republican Nomination race into the ultimate Reality TV Series. I would have paid very good money to see a debate between Trump, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Michelle Bachmann. Nobody else, they would just get in the way of the insanity. Newt still provides the possibility of some amazing debate banter, but other than lying and changing his political position, he does have a verbal filter that slows down and sometimes stops his brain from saying things that are insulting and hair-brained when the cameras are rolling. Donald Trump has no such filter to stop him from saying things that even a comedy writer couldn't come up with.
Don't get me wrong, I love Donald Trump and I am a regular viewing of whatever flavor of The Apprentice he is unleashing on the viewing public. But my love of watching Trump is similar to watching an impending train wreck. It's sick, I know, but I...just...can't...turn...away.
Mainstream Republicans (I know, there is an entire article waiting to be written on whether that term is an oxymoron) probably breathed a sigh of relief when Trump announced his decision not to run for the Presidential nomination. However, they really need to be thankful for Trump. Here is a list of his accomplishments:
1) Trump made it clear that Birthers are unstable and should not see the light of day. His craziness did force President Obama to publicly show that yes, they were all crazy. This will stop being an issue for the Republican party to defend itself against.
2) Trump showed that Obama can take out anyone. Heck, in one long weekend, he wiped out Bin Laden and Trump. Each got 2 bullets. OBL got the traditional type and Trump got a Long Form Birth Certificate and a Comedy Roast. Other potential Presidential candidates with the potential to damage the reputation of the entire Republican party may look at this and decide not to run. Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann have to be realizing that if they ever went one-on-one with Obama, they may wind up not even being employable by Fox.
3) The Republican Presidential Race was becoming an episode of a Looney Tunes cartoon. The best way to make sure everyone realizes that certain people are crazy is to put someone even more crazy next to them. I am reminded of a wonderful episode of the TV series "Ed" when John Slattery as Dennis Martino, the school principal, ran for Student Council President from the "Jackass Party" to show how useless the leading candidate was running for the "Party Party". In a very perverse and occasionally disturbing way, Donald Trump returned the Republican Presidential Race to sanity by taking all the craziness with him.
The biggest losers from The Donald's announcement, in fact, perhaps, the only losers are late night show comedians and Saturday Night Live. But I have no doubt they will come up with something.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Will Osama Help Obama?
Even now a week and a half removed from the announcement that the combination of CIA and Navy intelligence combined with the resourcefulness of a Navy Seal team, took out Osama Bin Laden after almost 10 years of searching, there is still a buzz in the air. People seem to be walking with a little more jazz in their steps, almost as if silently and perhaps unknowingly people are thinking, "That's right, don't mess with the US, we're tireless and eventually we'll find you."
President Barack Obama does seem to have received an 'Osama Bounce' in public opinion polls, although it is somewhat more muted that many expected, perhaps only 4-6 points. Will that be enough to guarantee him re-election in 2012?
If you have read even a few of my previous posts, you know I firmly believe in the James Carville 1992 mantra of "It's The Economy, Stupid" as the most supreme prognosticator of Presidential Election outcomes. So if the economy tanks or even if gas prices are in the $4.00 plus range at election time 2012, it might not matter if President Obama took out every past, current or future terrorist, he would have difficulty winning re-election.
So, for argument's sake, let's assume the economy is OK but not great. Unemployment is in the 8% range, but not rising, gas is in the $3.75 to $4.25 range but holding steady or dropping slightly, the markets are steady or slightly rising and inflation hasn't reared its big, ugly head yet. What impact will the extinguishing of Osama Bin Laden have on the 2012 Presidential Election?
The glow from Osama being laterized will most certainly be gone. We, the American public, have an amazingly short attention span and no matter how big a deal it is now, we just do not have the ability to keep something like this actively on our minds for the 16 months between now and Election Day 2012.
However, there are some impacts that will make the road much easier for President Obama to not need a moving company in 2013. Most notably is the ability to keep some potentially powerful Republican Presidential candidates on the sidelines. It has become very clear that in most likelihood, the entire outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election will turn on the state of the economy. International Affairs will not be a battleground where a Republican candidate can make any ground. In fact, Republicans will probably focus solely on domestic affairs out of fear that spending much time on foreign affairs may remind voters how Presidential Barack Obama has acted in his first term. Basing your chances just on the economy is a real crap-shoot that nobody has much control over. Any candidate with very solid general election potential (read Hunstman and Daniels) has to be wondering seriously if they want to go belly to belly with Obama on something which the laws of economic gravity indicate are more likely to improve than worsen in the next year.
Huntsman and Daniels each have the potential to make a run at Obama in 2012 EVEN if the economy is good. No other potential Republican candidate has the ability to overcome an incumbent Obama in a good economy. But that window of opportunity for Huntsman and Daniels has just gotten narrower and they each have to decide if their Presidential aspirations are better served by waiting until 2016. They may decide that 2012 is the time to get better known nationally but they don't have much of a chance to win the nomination in the current Republican climate. It is difficult if not impossible for someone to be their party's candidate and lose a general election and then get nominated again in a future election. Everyone has at best one shot at it, so Republican candidates have to decide if it is better to let a patsy take the fall in 2012 and help their chances to win the nomination in 2016 or if they have a really good shot now and only now.
President Barack Obama does seem to have received an 'Osama Bounce' in public opinion polls, although it is somewhat more muted that many expected, perhaps only 4-6 points. Will that be enough to guarantee him re-election in 2012?
If you have read even a few of my previous posts, you know I firmly believe in the James Carville 1992 mantra of "It's The Economy, Stupid" as the most supreme prognosticator of Presidential Election outcomes. So if the economy tanks or even if gas prices are in the $4.00 plus range at election time 2012, it might not matter if President Obama took out every past, current or future terrorist, he would have difficulty winning re-election.
So, for argument's sake, let's assume the economy is OK but not great. Unemployment is in the 8% range, but not rising, gas is in the $3.75 to $4.25 range but holding steady or dropping slightly, the markets are steady or slightly rising and inflation hasn't reared its big, ugly head yet. What impact will the extinguishing of Osama Bin Laden have on the 2012 Presidential Election?
The glow from Osama being laterized will most certainly be gone. We, the American public, have an amazingly short attention span and no matter how big a deal it is now, we just do not have the ability to keep something like this actively on our minds for the 16 months between now and Election Day 2012.
However, there are some impacts that will make the road much easier for President Obama to not need a moving company in 2013. Most notably is the ability to keep some potentially powerful Republican Presidential candidates on the sidelines. It has become very clear that in most likelihood, the entire outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election will turn on the state of the economy. International Affairs will not be a battleground where a Republican candidate can make any ground. In fact, Republicans will probably focus solely on domestic affairs out of fear that spending much time on foreign affairs may remind voters how Presidential Barack Obama has acted in his first term. Basing your chances just on the economy is a real crap-shoot that nobody has much control over. Any candidate with very solid general election potential (read Hunstman and Daniels) has to be wondering seriously if they want to go belly to belly with Obama on something which the laws of economic gravity indicate are more likely to improve than worsen in the next year.
Huntsman and Daniels each have the potential to make a run at Obama in 2012 EVEN if the economy is good. No other potential Republican candidate has the ability to overcome an incumbent Obama in a good economy. But that window of opportunity for Huntsman and Daniels has just gotten narrower and they each have to decide if their Presidential aspirations are better served by waiting until 2016. They may decide that 2012 is the time to get better known nationally but they don't have much of a chance to win the nomination in the current Republican climate. It is difficult if not impossible for someone to be their party's candidate and lose a general election and then get nominated again in a future election. Everyone has at best one shot at it, so Republican candidates have to decide if it is better to let a patsy take the fall in 2012 and help their chances to win the nomination in 2016 or if they have a really good shot now and only now.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Stan Hunstman Will Be President...Someday.
The more I learn about Stan Huntsman, the more I like him. He is the kind of Republican a moderate Democrat like me could seriously consider voting for. He is smart, affable and has leadership and diplomatic experience. He has been taking positions currently unpopular within his party, but in the areas where public opinion is moving to (gay rights, climate control and market-based health care reform). He is young (turns 51 this month) and having been ambassador to China and being a fluent speaker of Mandarin, he is ready for the future as it evolves toward a point where someone like Huntsman would have a significant advantage in dealing with the realities of international politics.
But 2012 may not be the time.
If somehow he was able to get the Republican nod, he would be as formidable a challenger as the Republicans can put forward against a strong candidacy by President Obama. If the economy stagnates or falters again, Huntsman would have an outstanding chance to collect enough independent votes to win the electoral college.
However, winning the Republican nomination in the current climate is quite a challenge. He is sooo moderate (almost liberal in fact), that it is difficult to imagine him being in the top 3 vote-getters in Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and other early, particularly conservative Republican state primaries/caucuses. He has a somewhat more amenable voter climate in New Hampshire, but 1 spot is already reserved at the top for Mitt Romney and another will be taken by whatever conservative candidate ran strongest in Iowa. If he can hang in for a while (and his family financial resources may allow that to happen), he might be able to win some of the middle and later races and become the party favorite.
But make no mistake about it, there is a better than even chance that at some point in time, there will be a President Huntsman. He may just need to wait until the Republican Party decides they want to put forward the candidate with the best chance to win the general election.
But 2012 may not be the time.
If somehow he was able to get the Republican nod, he would be as formidable a challenger as the Republicans can put forward against a strong candidacy by President Obama. If the economy stagnates or falters again, Huntsman would have an outstanding chance to collect enough independent votes to win the electoral college.
However, winning the Republican nomination in the current climate is quite a challenge. He is sooo moderate (almost liberal in fact), that it is difficult to imagine him being in the top 3 vote-getters in Iowa, South Carolina, Nevada and other early, particularly conservative Republican state primaries/caucuses. He has a somewhat more amenable voter climate in New Hampshire, but 1 spot is already reserved at the top for Mitt Romney and another will be taken by whatever conservative candidate ran strongest in Iowa. If he can hang in for a while (and his family financial resources may allow that to happen), he might be able to win some of the middle and later races and become the party favorite.
But make no mistake about it, there is a better than even chance that at some point in time, there will be a President Huntsman. He may just need to wait until the Republican Party decides they want to put forward the candidate with the best chance to win the general election.
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