Will Osama Help Obama?

Even now a week and a half removed from the announcement that the combination of CIA and Navy intelligence combined with the resourcefulness of a Navy Seal team, took out Osama Bin Laden after almost 10 years of searching, there is still a buzz in the air. People seem to be walking with a little more jazz in their steps, almost as if silently and perhaps unknowingly people are thinking, "That's right, don't mess with the US, we're tireless and eventually we'll find you."

President Barack Obama does seem to have received an 'Osama Bounce' in public opinion polls, although it is somewhat more muted that many expected, perhaps only 4-6 points. Will that be enough to guarantee him re-election in 2012?

If you have read even a few of my previous posts, you know I firmly believe in the James Carville 1992 mantra of "It's The Economy, Stupid" as the most supreme prognosticator of Presidential Election outcomes. So if the economy tanks or even if gas prices are in the $4.00 plus range at election time 2012, it might not matter if President Obama took out every past, current or future terrorist, he would have difficulty winning re-election.

So, for argument's sake, let's assume the economy is OK but not great. Unemployment is in the 8% range, but not rising, gas is in the $3.75 to $4.25 range but holding steady or dropping slightly, the markets are steady or slightly rising and inflation hasn't reared its big, ugly head yet. What impact will the extinguishing of Osama Bin Laden have on the 2012 Presidential Election?

The glow from Osama being laterized will most certainly be gone. We, the American public, have an amazingly short attention span and no matter how big a deal it is now, we just do not have the ability to keep something like this actively on our minds for the 16 months between now and Election Day 2012.

However, there are some impacts that will make the road much easier for President Obama to not need a moving company in 2013. Most notably is the ability to keep some potentially powerful Republican Presidential candidates on the sidelines. It has become very clear that in most likelihood, the entire outcome of the 2012 Presidential Election will turn on the state of the economy. International Affairs will not be a battleground where a Republican candidate can make any ground. In fact, Republicans will probably focus solely on domestic affairs out of fear that spending much time on foreign affairs may remind voters how Presidential Barack Obama has acted in his first term. Basing your chances just on the economy is a real crap-shoot that nobody has much control over. Any candidate with very solid general election potential (read Hunstman and Daniels) has to be wondering seriously if they want to go belly to belly with Obama on something which the laws of economic gravity indicate are more likely to improve than worsen in the next year.

Huntsman and Daniels each have the potential to make a run at Obama in 2012 EVEN if the economy is good. No other potential Republican candidate has the ability to overcome an incumbent Obama in a good economy. But that window of opportunity for Huntsman and Daniels has just gotten narrower and they each have to decide if their Presidential aspirations are better served by waiting until 2016. They may decide that 2012 is the time to get better known nationally but they don't have much of a chance to win the nomination in the current Republican climate. It is difficult if not impossible for someone to be their party's candidate and lose a general election and then get nominated again in a future election. Everyone has at best one shot at it, so Republican candidates have to decide if it is better to let a patsy take the fall in 2012 and help their chances to win the nomination in 2016 or if they have a really good shot now and only now.