In four states that may prove key to the Obama re-election strategy -- Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Michigan -- the jobless picture is bleak. In three of the four, the rate tops 10%.
This is a great example of statistics that don't tell much of any story. There are different stories in each of these four states.
Many in Michigan know that unemployment could be far worse were it not for the auto bailout. Whereas most of the other 49 states is split on whether or not the Obama Administration should have propped up GM and Chrysler residents of Michigan know that it had a big impact on their employment reality. So even though many are unhappy about the current absolute level of unemployment in the state, it is unlikely many will blame that on President Obama.
Nevada has been trending more blue recently, even as unemployment has risen. The Reid campaign machine showed last year that they have some impressive power in Nevada. Although the 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee is unlikely to be as soft an opponent as Sharron Angle, it will take more than an elevated unemployment rate in Nevada to turn it back to "R".
Unemployment in Florida is a legitimate problem for the Obama 2012 Campaign. However, thanks to Governor Rick Scott, Republicans aren't too popular in Florida now either. I think Florida will be closer than in 2008 and could easily turn Red, but it will take more than the unemployment rate for the Republican nominee to win there. Florida has one of the highest concentrations of people on Medicare and the Ryan Budget Plan will affect more Floridians than the unemployment rate.
If North Carolina is even in the discussion of voting for President Obama again, the Republican candidate, whoever they are, has no chance of keeping President Obama under 300 Electoral Votes. If North Carolina is in play, then as Bill Murray famously said in the forgettable movie "Meatballs", "It Just Doesn't Matter":
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