Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Gingrich is the Republican's Best Hope

OK, so now that I have your attention, what on earth do I mean. Certainly, you say to yourself, he can't mean that Newt Gingrich has the best chance of the 4 remaining Republican candidates to beat President Obama in the general election. With that assumption, you would be...correct.

As opposed to being the Republican's best general election candidate, Newt Gingrich is the Republican's best hope that Mitt Romney manages to hang on and win the nomination. If Gingrich were to drop out, there is a good chance that Rick Santorum would win enough of the remaining primaries to make it very difficult for Mitt Romney to collect enough delegates before the Republican Convention. A mano-a-mano competition (sorry Ron Paul), would not be an easy road for Mitt Romney, even with some upcoming winner take all primaries in large states with significant urban populations.

Instead, Newt Gingrich continues to split the conservative vote with Rick Santorum, allowing Mitt Romney to continue to win primaries while not attracting more than 40% of the votes. In all polls, Mitt Romney stands the best chance against President Obama in the November general election.

So in his own twisted, self-centered way, Newt Gingrich is once again doing everything he can to bring the Republican party back to national power. Today's primaries in Mississippi and Alabama may be a very close three way battle. If Mitt Romney were to win both, even by the smallest margins, it would probably indicate to all financial backers of Santorum and Gingrich, that the party is over. Without money, they would need to fold their campaigns very shortly. If Romney had to compete against only Santorum or Gingrich, he would lose in both states, and perhaps by double digits.

Also for your reading pleasure today, this poll from Public Policy Polling for the Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Skip down to questions 22 and 23 for both states and try not to let your jaw hit your desk. Not only is Barack Obama believed to be a Muslim by 3 to 4 times as many people who believe him to be his professed faith as a Christian, but in both states, at least 60% DO NOT believe in evolution. They were not asked if they believed in evolution as opposed to Creationism, just whether or not all of the science books they read and are being read by their children in school were accurate or fabrications. Evolution and the belief that God created humans are not mutually exclusive. In fact, of those who are members of the 12 largest religious denominations in the US, approximately 80% belong to churches who SUPPORT the concept of evolution. Perhaps this is unfairly targeting these two states as a poll referenced in the Wiki article linked above shows that nationwide there is a 30% difference in support for evolution between Democrats and Republicans. However, as a guy who grew up in the north and in the first grade of a Catholic elementary school was taught evolution and religious studies in the same day, this high percentage of scientific ignorance or intolerance is pretty stunning.

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