Does Walker Retention Portend Presidential Election Outcome in Wisconsin?

Although I don't like the way Walker handled it, as governor, he does have the right to find ways to balance the state budget. I have never been a big fan of recalls. Elections are where voters are supposed to make their choices and live with the consequences. Perhaps if voters realized they had to live with the outcome of an election, they might be more invested in making good choices and getting others to do the same.

Assuming that the outcome of this recall election with a low turnout foreshadows the outcome of the 2012 Presidential election outcome in Wisconsin is being overly simplistic. A better, but still not conclusive indicator would be the exit polling from the recall election which shows that the same voters who gave Walker a 53-46 win, also indicated a preference to re-elect President Obama by a margin of 51-44. This 7 point spread falls right in the middle of the most recent Wisconsin presidential polls which were conducted during the second half of May, 2012.

Again, since the portion of the Wisconsin electorate that participated in Tuesday's recall election may not reflect the same demographic sampling that will show up to vote in November, it is questionable whether there are any take-aways from Tuesday to predict the November election. However, that 14 point swing between the recall election outcome and exit poll preference for President when Walker and his supporters outspent Barrett $30M to $4M may indicate that the flood of money being spent against President Obama this election thanks to Citizen's United may not have very much impact.