Obama Supporters Reality Check

Obama Supporters - Does this map scare you:


It should. This is a McCain 274 - 264 win. Even with recent poll results, this is not impossible.

Granted, this may be one of the only realistic combination of states in which McCain can win, but it is not outrageous. This would require McCain to take all the states leaning Obama (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Wes Virginia, Ohio, Virginia, Florida) and hold onto the states that are leaning McCain (Indiana, North Carolina). Any state where Obama has less than a 5% lead is not out of reach with a strong Republican turnout. So while most sites are currently projecting a 350 vote tally for Obama, there are a lot of states that are marginally falling into his column.

If Obama wins any 1 of these states other than West Virginia or Nevada, he wins.

If Obama wins just West Virginia or Nevada, it is a 269-269 tie, which gets broken effectively by the House of Representatives with each state getting 1 vote. Most projections are that this would favor Obama, but it would become a bit of the Wild West again.

So what is today's lesson? If you are a McCain supporter, there is still hope. If you are an Obama supporter, don't think for a moment that this race is over and make sure you have a date with a polling place on November 4th.

One more dose of sobriety. An interesting new video is viewable online that covers the John Kerry campaign and shows how even late on Election night, they were sure they were not only going to win, but win by a lot. Inside the Bubble is well worth watching to understand how as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til its over".