The Soccer Dad Lawn Sign Presidential Poll

SOCCER DAD, DANCE DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for November 1 - Obama 43, McCain 27
SOCCER DAD, DANCE DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for October 25 - Obama 31, McCain 21
SOCCER DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for October 18 - Obama 24, McCain 12
SOCCER DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for October 11 - Obama 21, McCain 13
SOCCER DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for October 4 - Obama 20, McCain 9

While driving our 4 kids around today to a total of 10 soccer games and 3 field hockey games, I decided to count properties with lawn signs for the Presidential candidates. There was a lot of back-tracking between fields, so in an attempt to avoid double counting signs, I only counted once on each approach to a field.

This highly un-scientific poll was conducted in South Eastern Pennsylvania in the suburbs surrounding Philadelphia. Although Philadelphia is predominantly Democratic, the suburbs have long been Republican although they have continued to move closer to neutral over the last 3 decades. Most of the observations occurred in Delaware County, which used to have a Republican to Democratic registration ration of 70 to 30, but is more like 57 to 43 now and a number of those registered Republican act like independents, so the County in recent years has been considered a bellweather of Pennsylvania and at times, National sentiment.

The tally was 20 signs for Obama/Biden and 9 for McCain/Palin
Now while I can safely say that Obama will not take almost 70% of the vote in Pennsylvania, these observations lead me to surmise that either the Obama ground game is much more impressive in a battleground county in a battleground state, or the there are more Obama supporters than McCain supporters who are fervent enough to declare their preference for all to see. Or perhaps a bit of both. Any way you slice it, this tells me that polls showing Obama to be 7% ahead in Pennsylvania are unlikely to be overstating Obama's lead.

Although this poll is perhaps one of the least scientific that I can imagine, I don't think Pennsylvania will turn Red this year.

McCain should forget about all states with the exception of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. He has to win all of them. He has already withdrawn from Michigan and probably should from Wisconsin and Minnesota as well. New Hampshire has new polls showing a average of a 9 point Obama lead and if that is even remotely close to reality, that state is gone as well.