What's Bubbling Up?

We're still in a period of flux, but here are the interesting items that could prove to be significant:

First and foremost is the continued edge McCain has over Obama in nationwide polling. The most widely recognized poll, Gallup also is providing McCain with the largest lead, 49%-44%. Others, including Rasmussen (48%-48%) are showing the race effectively tied. It will stay basically like this until the debates.

State polls taken by Rasmussen after the Reupblican Convention are beginning to come in and they are really a mixed bag. Ohio, a statistical tie for a long time, now shows McCain in front by 7 points. Other than that, the results show hope for McCain, but if his post Convention bounce is as high as he gets, he could be in trouble. Some states generally considered likely Obama wins have gotten much closer, but keep Obama in the lead (Washington - 4 points - Survey USA), (Pennsylvania - 2 points). Some battleground states thought to be leaning Obama are still there (Colorado - 3 points). Perhaps most interestingly, some battleground states that McCain probably cannot win without are very, very close even after his bounce (Virginia 49-47 McCain - both Rasmussen and Survey USA), (Florida - TIED 48-48!) So has McCain really gotten a bounce that will help him win the election? If McCain does not win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, it is almost certainly over. Two of those 3 don't look particularly strong at what may be his highest point. Gaining votes in Wyoming and Oklahoma may help his national numbers, but don't change the electoral vote landscape.

2 very interesting stances from the RNC that are like a Prevent Defense: McCain's camp has said several times in the last few days that this campaign is not about issues. That is a very odd and interesting statement, and probably one they need to make to have a chance to win. It has been said that the very wise Republican campaign leaders are able to get enough voters to vote against their best interests in order to win an election, and that is about what it will take this year. Also Sarah Palin has been shielded from the media, hence no Face the Nation, Meet the Press, etc. so far. In fact, a McCain aide told journalists that all Sarah Palin flights would be 'off the record' unless the media were told otherwise. She has agreed to a taped, multi-day interview with Charles Gibson of ABC later this week. That format definitely allows for dealing with any verbal snafus.

The 'Bridge to Nowhere' is being trumped in a lot of McCain adds as something that shows Sarah Palin's independence and desire to get rid of inappropriate spending. There are a lot of sources now contradicting Palin's original stance on the matter, so that might come back to haunt them. Also, there are reports today that Sarah Palin claimed a per diem allowance on over 300 occasions when she was actually home in Wasilla and that she also submitted travel reimbursements of over $40,000 for her husband and children. All legal items and less than her predecessor, but it may be difficult to continue portraying her as a fiscal conservative.

And, lest we forget, Keith Olbermann & Chris Matthews dropped from political commentary on MSNBC for being shall we say, a bit slanted. They were actually helping to bond Republicans together against a common enemy thereby creating just the opposite result they may have intended. Part of the post Republican Convention bounce John McCain is getting is probably due to the perhaps accurate perception that the mainstream media was playing favorites.