The Price of Bad Communication

By most accounts, the Democrats can expect to loose a lot of seats in the House next Tuesday, almost certainly putting the Republicans in the majority. Control of the Senate is still up for grabs although it seems that the Dems may hold onto it thanks perhaps to the Tea Party in Delaware.

In most election years, over 90% of House members are safe, leaving only 40 or so to scurry around campaigning for their jobs. This election cycle that number has at least doubled. While there are probably individual cases of (unusually) poor performance by a sitting House member, most in danger are not the cause of their problems. The country, by and large, is fed up with those in charge and most specifically, the Obama Administration.

So, I ask why? Why all the disdain? Why all the concern over the deficit now and not 2 years ago (or 4 or 6 or 8...). Why all these complaints on rising taxes when federal taxes have actually dropped over the last 2 years and are at their lowest level in many years? With unemployment hovering just under 10%, many are concerned about losing their job and with it their health insurance. So why are so many people angry that Health Care Reform just guaranteed that even if they lose their job, they will still be able to get health insurance, and for many at discounted rates? For those on the Far Left, didn't you just get more legislation passed that met your hopes and desires than at any time since the Johnson administration? For everyone else, what were you expecting?

53% of those voting in the 2008 Presidential Election selected Barack Obama over John McCain to lead the country for the next 4 years. His policies and opinions were pretty clear at that time. Here is the shocker...Obama has done pretty much what he said he was going to do. So where is the surprise? Granted, he didn't get as much through in the health Care Reform bill as he advocated, but that was the political sausage making and frankly that should only potentially upset the far left. The Stimulus Package wasn't as big as he wanted it and although many economists have complained that is why we are still mired with unemployment at this level, the general public isn't complaining that it wasn't big enough.

So what gives? It turns out that although the Obama team was historic in getting out their message in the 2008 election, they are pretty miserable in selling their story once in power. A lot of really good things have happened in this Administration:

We were at the precipice of an economic disaster that could have made the Great Depression look like a bad hair day. I was trained as an Economist and for the first time in my life, I was actually scared about the financial future of this country. If 9.6% unemployment sounds bad, put a "1" in front of it, because that is about what we would have seen. The auto industry would have collapsed as well as every company supporting them, dealers, parts manufacturers, etc. As bad as Detroit is now, it would have been apocalyptic. But few people understand what 'could' have happened, only what they see. "You stopped me from running into the oncoming car, but I scraped my knee." But Christine Romer kept harping that unemployment would stay below 8%. Bad, bad, bad move. I understand not wanted fear to set in, but you never win by setting high expectations. If statements had been made that untouched, unemployment would reach 14%, but we believe we can take actions that will keep it under 10%, the Obama Administration might be considered heroes now, because that is exactly what they have done.

The Health Care Reform Bill provides health coverage to 32 million uninsured Americans, enables those under age 26 to stay on their parents plan, prevents discrimination against "pre-existing conditions", eliminates the annual and lifetime benefit cap and according to the CBO will actually SAVE $143 Billion over the next 10 years. It is tough to be against any of these things. Those opposed usually site the cost of $1 Trillion dollars, and don't acknowledge that the cost reductions exceed the cost creating a net savings. Several previous presidents have tried unsuccessfully to accomplish this and failed. By not harping over and over again on the benefits and the cost savings rather than the cost and explaining it in terms that people could understand and cling to, this monumental social change program will be vastly underappreciated for a very long time.

Tax Reduction - Not a term associated with the Obama Administration and yet, that is what they have done. The Making Work Pay provision provided almost half of the $240 Million in tax cuts created by the Obama Administration providing a $400 per year credit for individuals and $800 for married couples. This benefit accrued to individual filers with taxable income under $75,000 and couples filing jointly under $150,000. Don't think you got it? Pull out your 2009 return and look at line 63 or look here for the IRS information. The actual calculation was done on Schedule M.

Handling 2 Wars - All combat troops have been removed from Iraq with about 50,000 peacekeeping troops still there, that number declining over time. There was a large buildup in Afghanistan with a scheduled pullout next year in an attempt to stabilize that country. Obama came through on his promise on Iraq. He went against the wishes of many of his supporters on Afghanistan, but it may very well have been the right choice. A very difficult and unpopular one, but perhaps the best for long-term considerations.

There are a few other items covered quite well in this article in Rolling Stone. Not a place I normally recommend for even handed political coverage (and it does have its rah-rah moments), but overall a pretty decent characterization of where we are.

This recent poll by Bloomberg shows that "...by a two-to-one margin, likely voters in the Nov. 2 midterm elections think taxes have gone up, the economy has shrunk, and the billions lent to banks as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program won’t be recovered." All of which is wrong. Americans are generally not very educated in history, but these are current events. Granted there has been a concerted effort by the President's detractors to accentuate the problems and misdirect or outright lie about current issues, but the facts are on the side of the Democrats and yet they run away from them.

If the Obama Administration were as good at telling their story as the Reagan and Clinton Administrations, the Democrats might have still held on to the House and Senate. But split government isn't the worst thing. Everybody has their neck on the line. If nothing gets done, everyone is to blame, so they have to find a way to play nice at least long enough to have something to claim during the run-up to the 2012 election. If not, then Obama gets to run his 2012 campaign against a "Do Nothing" Republican-led House and history tells us that has worked pretty well.