Calling the 2010 Election

The Pendulum is swinging back.

For good or bad, the last 2 elections have swung dramatically in the direction of the Democrats taking the House, Senate and White House from the Republicans. During the last 2 election cycles, Democrats have gained 52 seats in the House and 14 seats in the Senate, giving them significant majorities during the past 2 years, larger than most differentials since the landslide elections of 1964. Under almost any circumstances, especially being the party in the White House, the Democrats could have expected some significant losses in the 2010 elections as the pendulum swings back a bit. Add to that an economy that continues to be bad, marked by almost 10% unemployment and a great deal of underemployment and those who have just plain left the workforce and you will get substantial losses. On top of all that is the politically wonderful (but in many cases morally deplorable and dishonest) job the Republican Party has done over the last 2 years, fighting the President on almost every issue and winning the message wars on almost every action taken by the Obama Administration. All this despite the fact that Republican Party has lower favorables than the Democratic Party and far lower than President Obama.

The question is not whether Republicans will have a very good day nationally on November 2nd, the question is how large will it be? Predictions are all over the place, but here is my call:

Republicans take the House gaining 55 seats to take a 17 seat majority (226-209)

Democrats lose 6 seats, but hold onto the Senate 51-47 with the 2 independents caucusing with the Democrats for an effective 53-47 edge.

This brings the House pretty much back to the balance that existed just prior to the 2006 elections, but the Democrats still have a slightly larger majority in the Senate than they had entering the 2008 elections. There are a lot of Democratic Senate seats up for reelection in 2012, so unless Obama wins convincingly in 2012 and has some coattails, the Senate could turn Republican in 2 more years. even if it doesn't happen Nov 2.