Although he was perhaps the most qualified candidate in the field to do the job of President in the Twenty-teens, and perhaps most able to appeal to moderates, Jon Huntsman's campaign never got off the ground. His third place finish in moderate New Hampshire after putting most of his chips on that primary made it undeniably clear that it wasn't going to get any better.
In another time, with a different Republican electorate, Jon Huntsman may be the right candidate. But not today, not in 2012. It isn't clear what today's Republican electorate wants. There have been enough clear messages that they don't want Mitt Romney, although that is who they are about to nominate, having not found the stomach to vote for anyone else.
Jon Huntsman seems to be a good guy, a smart guy, a guy with substantial international affairs experience, in particular with China, the single most important expanding economic power in the world. However, Jon still hasn't figured out how to master the TV/Internet sound bite, and that might doom his ability to ever ascend to the Presidency.
However, I put him on the short list for a cabinet position if Mitt Romney wins. That might actually be a more important position that would be a better use of his abilities and experience. How does Secretary of State Huntsman sound?
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012
When the Expected Occurs and Surprises Everyone
Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses by 8 votes, well kind of. One week later, he won a decisive double-digit victory in his 'practically home state' of New Hampshire. He thus became the first Republican non-incumbent to win both of these first two votes.
While Romney winning Iowa would have been considered a surprise a month ago, he had led all polls recently and having a narrow at best win over streaking Rick Santorum hardly seems like a defining moment. How different would the outcome have been considered if a doze votes went to Santorum and Romeny finished second? After a win in Iowa, Romney's margin of victory in New Hampshire was on the low side of expectations.
So, despite these less than overwhelming performances, Mitt Romney now appears to be a South Carolina win away from being ushered in as the Republican candidate to face President Obama in November's Presidential election. If recent polls showing Romney leading by a comfortable margin are even close to correct, that is pretty much what will happen. Even though Ron Paul will probably stay in the race and despite Newt Gingrich wanting to give Mitt Romney a payback for the negative ads in Iowa, this campaign is very close to being over.
Whereas the 2008 Democratic Campaign went pretty much to the end, the 2012 Republican Primary season may not be in doubt come Groundhog's Day. If that occurs, we will review the implications of a quick decision on a nominee and how it will impact the Fall campaign.
While Romney winning Iowa would have been considered a surprise a month ago, he had led all polls recently and having a narrow at best win over streaking Rick Santorum hardly seems like a defining moment. How different would the outcome have been considered if a doze votes went to Santorum and Romeny finished second? After a win in Iowa, Romney's margin of victory in New Hampshire was on the low side of expectations.
So, despite these less than overwhelming performances, Mitt Romney now appears to be a South Carolina win away from being ushered in as the Republican candidate to face President Obama in November's Presidential election. If recent polls showing Romney leading by a comfortable margin are even close to correct, that is pretty much what will happen. Even though Ron Paul will probably stay in the race and despite Newt Gingrich wanting to give Mitt Romney a payback for the negative ads in Iowa, this campaign is very close to being over.
Whereas the 2008 Democratic Campaign went pretty much to the end, the 2012 Republican Primary season may not be in doubt come Groundhog's Day. If that occurs, we will review the implications of a quick decision on a nominee and how it will impact the Fall campaign.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
He Who is Last Shall Be First, Almost
The long-awaited and long-written-about Iowa Caucuses are over and they produced the closest and perhaps most confusing result in their history. After all the votes were counted once, Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum by just 8 votes. There are no recounts in the Iowa Caucues because, well, precision isn't really that important. The Iowa Caucuses votes are only the start to a multi-tiered process that determines the delegates to the Republican National Convention. Even then, they are allowed to vote for whomever they chose.
But a win is a win and for the longest time during the campaign, it didn't seem like there was any way that Mitt Romney would be the top vote-getter in Iowa. From Palin to Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Paul, there has always been someone else who it appeared would be the winner of Iowa. So winning the Iowa Caucuses, going 'home' to New Hampshire where Romney has a big lead in polls and having by far the largest success in fund-raising would normally be the ingredients to an early decision in a primary campaign.
Not so fast. Those 8 votes were an important divider between first and second, but perception is everything. Coming in second after spending most of the pre-caucus time battling Stan Hunstman for last place among those being allowed into the debates, was none other than former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum. How on earth did that happen? I mean, as late as mid-December, you could have gotten tremendous odds predicting that Santorum would finish in the top 2 in Iowa. This is the same Rick Santorum who lost his Senate seat in 2006 to Bob Casey, Jr. by 18%, the largest loss for a standing US Senator in history. What change in gravitational forces and metaphysical dynamics commenced over the holidays that made Rick Santorum the hottest candidate on the Republican campaign trail?
As the biblical reference in the title, "he who is last shall be first". Each of the other Republican candidates or almost-candidates mentioned above who were leading in Iowa polls at some point did get to spend some time in the middle of the circular firing squad of Republican candidates and have all of their statements and former misdeeds given substantial media time and space. Many candidates have looked good on the surface, but once the hood was raised and tires kicked...well, not so much.
However, as almost every other candidate (save Jon Huntsman) got their turn at the top of the heap only to fall down and break their chance at winning the crown, there were very few Not-the-Romneys remaining. Newt Gingrich was the last candidate to have a meteoric ascension to the top of the Iowa poll. After a few weeks in that position as people had more of a chance to hear Newt speak outside of debates, the entire state of Iowa proclaimed, "Oh, THAT Newt Gingrich!" and his ratings tumbled.
The loyal Not-the-Romney supporters looked into the bullpen of relief candidates, looked sensible, intelligent, experienced Jon Huntsman in the eye, looked away and said, "Rick Santorum, you are our man!". But with the shortness of time and impending holidays, the other candidates and the media didn't have much opportunity to let potential voters know why Santorum belonged with the other former Not-the-Romneys. So in this case, being the last Republican candidate before Iowa to win the favor of the more conservative Republican voters was a winning (or almost winning) strategy.
What happens from here? Well, that is one reason why political campaigns are fun, at least from the outside. Nobody knows for certain what will happen. It is most likely that Mitt Romney will win big in New Hampshire next Tuesday, Jan 10th. However, it will be more interesting to see how large the gap will be, who will be second, and if Santorum isn't second, how far down he finishes. Campaigning is still a money and organization game. Romney has both, Paul has both, Perry has money. Rick Santorum is going to have to get a lot of money and organization in South Carolina and Florida in a hurry if his Iowa showing is to become more than a political footnote.
But a win is a win and for the longest time during the campaign, it didn't seem like there was any way that Mitt Romney would be the top vote-getter in Iowa. From Palin to Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Paul, there has always been someone else who it appeared would be the winner of Iowa. So winning the Iowa Caucuses, going 'home' to New Hampshire where Romney has a big lead in polls and having by far the largest success in fund-raising would normally be the ingredients to an early decision in a primary campaign.
Not so fast. Those 8 votes were an important divider between first and second, but perception is everything. Coming in second after spending most of the pre-caucus time battling Stan Hunstman for last place among those being allowed into the debates, was none other than former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum. How on earth did that happen? I mean, as late as mid-December, you could have gotten tremendous odds predicting that Santorum would finish in the top 2 in Iowa. This is the same Rick Santorum who lost his Senate seat in 2006 to Bob Casey, Jr. by 18%, the largest loss for a standing US Senator in history. What change in gravitational forces and metaphysical dynamics commenced over the holidays that made Rick Santorum the hottest candidate on the Republican campaign trail?
As the biblical reference in the title, "he who is last shall be first". Each of the other Republican candidates or almost-candidates mentioned above who were leading in Iowa polls at some point did get to spend some time in the middle of the circular firing squad of Republican candidates and have all of their statements and former misdeeds given substantial media time and space. Many candidates have looked good on the surface, but once the hood was raised and tires kicked...well, not so much.
However, as almost every other candidate (save Jon Huntsman) got their turn at the top of the heap only to fall down and break their chance at winning the crown, there were very few Not-the-Romneys remaining. Newt Gingrich was the last candidate to have a meteoric ascension to the top of the Iowa poll. After a few weeks in that position as people had more of a chance to hear Newt speak outside of debates, the entire state of Iowa proclaimed, "Oh, THAT Newt Gingrich!" and his ratings tumbled.
The loyal Not-the-Romney supporters looked into the bullpen of relief candidates, looked sensible, intelligent, experienced Jon Huntsman in the eye, looked away and said, "Rick Santorum, you are our man!". But with the shortness of time and impending holidays, the other candidates and the media didn't have much opportunity to let potential voters know why Santorum belonged with the other former Not-the-Romneys. So in this case, being the last Republican candidate before Iowa to win the favor of the more conservative Republican voters was a winning (or almost winning) strategy.
What happens from here? Well, that is one reason why political campaigns are fun, at least from the outside. Nobody knows for certain what will happen. It is most likely that Mitt Romney will win big in New Hampshire next Tuesday, Jan 10th. However, it will be more interesting to see how large the gap will be, who will be second, and if Santorum isn't second, how far down he finishes. Campaigning is still a money and organization game. Romney has both, Paul has both, Perry has money. Rick Santorum is going to have to get a lot of money and organization in South Carolina and Florida in a hurry if his Iowa showing is to become more than a political footnote.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Is This Heaven? No, It's Iowa
January 3rd, note even long enough into the new year that you remember not to write 2011 for the date. But today, we officially begin counting votes that kind of count toward determining the Republican nominee for President in 2012.
Everything up to this point has been noise and there has been a lot of it. The jostling back and forth in the polls has seemed a lot like a horse race and the folks at Slate have helped us visualize the lead-up to the Iowa Caucuses:
CLICK
But the entire race until this point is essentially meaningless. Today, at various places around Iowa, people will stand up and talk about the candidate they support and then folks will go to vote. Unlike the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, there are not several rounds of voting with candidates receiving less than a threshold of votes being removed and their supporters being coaxed by others to join their group. However, candidates who spent a lot of time in the state and have a good ground game (Santorum and Paul), may wind up with a higher percentage of total votes as their supporters stand up and speak on their behalf.
The actual results today don't even necessarily wind up determining the distribution of Iowa's delegates at the Republican National Convention. As Electoral-Vote.com clarifies:
So, why do we care what folks in Iowa do today? Good question. But the answer is that for better or worse, this is the first truly defining moment in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary race. Financial supporters and local organizers are the life-blood of a campaign. Until now, every candidate has a chance to be the nominee. After the reality of today, for some, not so much. Michele Bachmann's campaign is on life-support and as a native Iowan who won the earlier Iowa Straw Poll, a 4th or lower finish today is probably the punctuation mark at the end of her campaign. Rick Santorum is also very light on money and support, but at least in recent polls, he has been the anti-Romney flavor of the month and a strong showing today could give him the influx of dollars that can keep him going at least through the South Carolina primary on January 21st. Stan Hunstman and Rick Perry are unlikely to place near the top in Iowa, but they both have a good amount of cash for the moment and will stay in for a while. Hunstman is counting on a good showing next Tuesday on January 10th in New Hampshire and will decide whether or not to continue at that time.
Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are likely to be among the top 3 in today's Iowa Caucus and despite occasional media comments to the contrary, are likely to continue even if they had a bad showing. However, a win would be very big for either candidate, regardless of how small the margin.
That leaves us with Newt Gingrich. Newt, Newt, Newt. I could write an entire year of blog posts recalling the path that took Newt Gingrich to arrive at this point in his political career, but that would be a waste of electrons. Newt could eek out a top 3 finish in Iowa, but its not clear that even that would do much to fortify his coffers. Only a few weeks ago, Gingrich soared in polls both in Iowa and nationally and led Mitt Romney by double-digits. Newt's fast rise and flame-out will make the others (Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain) seem prolonged by comparison.
So we'll see what the citizens of Iowa communicate to the rest of the country and we'll report back on it during the week.
In case you were wondering, the title of today's post comes from "Field of Dreams".
Everything up to this point has been noise and there has been a lot of it. The jostling back and forth in the polls has seemed a lot like a horse race and the folks at Slate have helped us visualize the lead-up to the Iowa Caucuses:
But the entire race until this point is essentially meaningless. Today, at various places around Iowa, people will stand up and talk about the candidate they support and then folks will go to vote. Unlike the Democratic caucuses in Iowa, there are not several rounds of voting with candidates receiving less than a threshold of votes being removed and their supporters being coaxed by others to join their group. However, candidates who spent a lot of time in the state and have a good ground game (Santorum and Paul), may wind up with a higher percentage of total votes as their supporters stand up and speak on their behalf.
The actual results today don't even necessarily wind up determining the distribution of Iowa's delegates at the Republican National Convention. As Electoral-Vote.com clarifies:
"Note that this is only a preference for delegates to the 99 county conventions in March. The people who go there elect the delegates to the congressional-district conventions and so on up the tree to the RNC. These people can change their mind as time goes on. In 2008, for example, John McCain came in fourth in the first round but ended up getting all the delegates to the RNC in the end."
So, why do we care what folks in Iowa do today? Good question. But the answer is that for better or worse, this is the first truly defining moment in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary race. Financial supporters and local organizers are the life-blood of a campaign. Until now, every candidate has a chance to be the nominee. After the reality of today, for some, not so much. Michele Bachmann's campaign is on life-support and as a native Iowan who won the earlier Iowa Straw Poll, a 4th or lower finish today is probably the punctuation mark at the end of her campaign. Rick Santorum is also very light on money and support, but at least in recent polls, he has been the anti-Romney flavor of the month and a strong showing today could give him the influx of dollars that can keep him going at least through the South Carolina primary on January 21st. Stan Hunstman and Rick Perry are unlikely to place near the top in Iowa, but they both have a good amount of cash for the moment and will stay in for a while. Hunstman is counting on a good showing next Tuesday on January 10th in New Hampshire and will decide whether or not to continue at that time.
Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are likely to be among the top 3 in today's Iowa Caucus and despite occasional media comments to the contrary, are likely to continue even if they had a bad showing. However, a win would be very big for either candidate, regardless of how small the margin.
That leaves us with Newt Gingrich. Newt, Newt, Newt. I could write an entire year of blog posts recalling the path that took Newt Gingrich to arrive at this point in his political career, but that would be a waste of electrons. Newt could eek out a top 3 finish in Iowa, but its not clear that even that would do much to fortify his coffers. Only a few weeks ago, Gingrich soared in polls both in Iowa and nationally and led Mitt Romney by double-digits. Newt's fast rise and flame-out will make the others (Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain) seem prolonged by comparison.
So we'll see what the citizens of Iowa communicate to the rest of the country and we'll report back on it during the week.
In case you were wondering, the title of today's post comes from "Field of Dreams".
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