When the Expected Occurs and Surprises Everyone

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses by 8 votes, well kind of. One week later, he won a decisive double-digit victory in his 'practically home state' of New Hampshire. He thus became the first Republican non-incumbent to win both of these first two votes.

While Romney winning Iowa would have been considered a surprise a month ago, he had led all polls recently and having a narrow at best win over streaking Rick Santorum hardly seems like a defining moment. How different would the outcome have been considered if a doze votes went to Santorum and Romeny finished second? After a win in Iowa, Romney's margin of victory in New Hampshire was on the low side of expectations.

So, despite these less than overwhelming performances, Mitt Romney now appears to be a South Carolina win away from being ushered in as the Republican candidate to face President Obama in November's Presidential election. If recent polls showing Romney leading by a comfortable margin are even close to correct, that is pretty much what will happen. Even though Ron Paul will probably stay in the race and despite Newt Gingrich wanting to give Mitt Romney a payback for the negative ads in Iowa, this campaign is very close to being over.

Whereas the 2008 Democratic Campaign went pretty much to the end, the 2012 Republican Primary season may not be in doubt come Groundhog's Day. If that occurs, we will review the implications of a quick decision on a nominee and how it will impact the Fall campaign.