He Who is Last Shall Be First, Almost

The long-awaited and long-written-about Iowa Caucuses are over and they produced the closest and perhaps most confusing result in their history. After all the votes were counted once, Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum by just 8 votes. There are no recounts in the Iowa Caucues because, well, precision isn't really that important. The Iowa Caucuses votes are only the start to a multi-tiered process that determines the delegates to the Republican National Convention. Even then, they are allowed to vote for whomever they chose.

But a win is a win and for the longest time during the campaign, it didn't seem like there was any way that Mitt Romney would be the top vote-getter in Iowa. From Palin to Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Paul, there has always been someone else who it appeared would be the winner of Iowa. So winning the Iowa Caucuses, going 'home' to New Hampshire where Romney has a big lead in polls and having by far the largest success in fund-raising would normally be the ingredients to an early decision in a primary campaign.

Not so fast. Those 8 votes were an important divider between first and second, but perception is everything. Coming in second after spending most of the pre-caucus time battling Stan Hunstman for last place among those being allowed into the debates, was none other than former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum. How on earth did that happen? I mean, as late as mid-December, you could have gotten tremendous odds predicting that Santorum would finish in the top 2 in Iowa. This is the same Rick Santorum who lost his Senate seat in 2006 to Bob Casey, Jr. by 18%, the largest loss for a standing US Senator in history. What change in gravitational forces and metaphysical dynamics commenced over the holidays that made Rick Santorum the hottest candidate on the Republican campaign trail?

As the biblical reference in the title, "he who is last shall be first". Each of the other Republican candidates or almost-candidates mentioned above who were leading in Iowa polls at some point did get to spend some time in the middle of the circular firing squad of Republican candidates and have all of their statements and former misdeeds given substantial media time and space. Many candidates have looked good on the surface, but once the hood was raised and tires kicked...well, not so much.

However, as almost every other candidate (save Jon Huntsman) got their turn at the top of the heap only to fall down and break their chance at winning the crown, there were very few Not-the-Romneys remaining. Newt Gingrich was the last candidate to have a meteoric ascension to the top of the Iowa poll. After a few weeks in that position as people had more of a chance to hear Newt speak outside of debates, the entire state of Iowa proclaimed, "Oh, THAT Newt Gingrich!" and his ratings tumbled.

The loyal Not-the-Romney supporters looked into the bullpen of relief candidates, looked sensible, intelligent, experienced Jon Huntsman in the eye, looked away and said, "Rick Santorum, you are our man!". But with the shortness of time and impending holidays, the other candidates and the media didn't have much opportunity to let potential voters know why Santorum belonged with the other former Not-the-Romneys. So in this case, being the last Republican candidate before Iowa to win the favor of the more conservative Republican voters was a winning (or almost winning) strategy.

What happens from here? Well, that is one reason why political campaigns are fun, at least from the outside. Nobody knows for certain what will happen. It is most likely that Mitt Romney will win big in New Hampshire next Tuesday, Jan 10th. However, it will be more interesting to see how large the gap will be, who will be second, and if Santorum isn't second, how far down he finishes. Campaigning is still a money and organization game. Romney has both, Paul has both, Perry has money. Rick Santorum is going to have to get a lot of money and organization in South Carolina and Florida in a hurry if his Iowa showing is to become more than a political footnote.