Pennsylvania is A-Polling

Half of April's days leading up the Pennsylvania Primary have elapsed and one thing is certain: The polls are very uncertain how this will turn out.

Almost all polls have Hillary Clinton leading, but by how much is the question of the day.

Two polls concluding on April 7th highlight this. Rasmussen has Clinton up by only 5 points (48-43) but Survey USA has Clinton up by 18! (56-38). Er, at least one of them is way off the mark. The Rasmussen survey had 9% Undecided, which was their first PA Poll with an undecided amount in just single digits. About half of the polls done in the last month by a variety of companies have had undecided numbers in double digits. There have been 4.5 weeks of very heavy campaigning and advertising in PA and more than 10% of registered Democrats still aren't sure who they will vote for? By contrast, a bordering and somewhat similar state, Ohio, only had a few polls in the month leading up to their primary with such high levels of undecideds.

Are there really that many Dems in the Keystone State who aren't sure yet who they are voting for or are there just a lot of people who don't feel comfortable telling a pollster their choice? If the latter is the case, which candidate is more likely to have the support of these "undecided" poll respondents? I would look at the candidate with the larger Negative opinion numbers. There are a lot of silent Hillary supporters in PA. Not wanting to attract the ire of the more vocal Obama supporters and have to defend their support of Hillary. They are most likely reserving the declaration of their preference for the quiet and privacy of the voting booth. My guess is PA goes by about the same gap as Ohio, 10%.

That probably only means a 20 delegate pickup for Hillary, but I think she stopped playing the pledged delegate game a long time ago. She is hoping to win 6 or 7 of the last 10 primaries and use that momentum to convince the Superdelegates that she is the one to support.

Like an expected Fed Rate cut, I believe that a Hillary win by 7-12% is effectively already worked into public and media opinions. If the gap winds up being much lower or higher, then that would be a big problem for the candidate on the wrong side of that outcome.