All Over But the Crying

But who will be doing the crying?

After 6 weeks of nothing but Pennsylvania, voters from the Keystone State are about to answer the questions everyone has been asking during that time. Who will win (most people, even Barack Obama are pretty sure it will be Hillary Clinton)? What will the spread be (that sounds more like betting on a football game, but that really is the more important of the 2 questions.

Most polls have the expected spread at about 5-6%. So a result in that range is pretty much expected. If the gap is less than that, most people will take that as the beginning of the end of Hillary Clinton's run for the nomination. (Or should that be the final beginning of the end...or the beginning of the final end... or maybe...)

Since Hillary Clinton started with such a large lead in the polls (up to 20 points), even if she wins by 7-9%, I think it will still be almost a non-event in terms of how it effects the nomination race.

However, if this becomes a double digit gap, one thing would be pretty much guaranteed...the Democratic campaign will go all the way to the Denver Convention. It is the one thing that Obama people are really worried about on Earth Day, because the implications are pretty certain, even if the likelihood is anyone's guess.

At play in determining the outcome:

- 300,00 to 400,000 increase in Democratic registration, with perhaps as much as 65% of those being partial to Obama. The question is whether this increase in registration has been reflected in the way the polling services have conducted their surveys and calculated their results.

- Most polls have had very high Undecided numbers, rising up to even 15% in polls in the week leading up to the Pennsylvania primary. It seems that a very high percentage of these "undecided" voters are likely to break for Hillary Clinton because she is more of a known quantity or they really have already been planning to vote for Clinton, but just weren't confident or comfortable enough about it to provide that answer to pollsters.

- The second hour of last week's debate was by most accounts a distinct victory for Hillary Clinton when the discussion got around to the actual issues. There is some question about how many viewers stayed tuned in after almost an hour of so-called "gotcha" questions. However, Philadelphia was one of only 4 cities in the US where the debate outdrew American Idol in that timeslot. If a lot of undecided and leaning voters in the greater Philadelphia area tuned in, that could be bad news for the Obama campaign.

- The Obama Campaign is perhaps the most well-organized in US primary history. They could have a 1-2% impact on the actual vote.

So here is my guess...8-10% gap for Clinton. Enough to keep things going, but not enough to have an impact on future primaries, superdelegate leanings or fundraising.

Same as it ever was.