So What Do We Know Now?

Hilary Clinton winds up winning Pennsylvania by 10 % (or 9.2% depending upon which website you go to). You could have read it here first and gotten an early bedtime on the 21st. So what do we know?

The polls were kind of right, at least if you knew how to read them. Hillary Clinton is getting a very large portion of the "Undecided" voters. I made the point that one or two weeks out, there really aren't that many people who are truly undecided. Even if the say they are and think they are, they may not realize that they probably are Clinton supporters and don't come to terms with it until they are in the voting booth. Obama supporters generally know it and let everyone else know it.

There is no question that Obama's momentum has shrunk to a drip. The question is whether he has enough to finish. Actually, even if he just keeps moving forward, he will have enough to win the Democratic nomination. He actually just needs to not implode. Unfortunately, that isn't obvious at this point which is why even as a few superdelegates have declared for him in the last 2 weeks, there are still a few hundred waiting on the sidelines.

What do Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and several other senior members of the DNC have in common? They want the Democratic Primary Season to be over. However, it appears that the American public is generally content to let every state and a few places that don't get to vote in the general election (Guam and Puerto Rico) have their say before a final decision is made. Interesting that the American public is more patient than the people in leadership and 'expert' roles. Although it is tough to surpass Howard Dean's comedic statements on the superdelegates, Tim Russert has done just that on several occasions. My favorite was on the night of the Pennsylvania primary. He was almost incredulous that the Clinton campaign would hope that the superdelegates would believe Obama is not going to be able to win the general election and throw their support behind Clinton.

Errrr, that is exactly why the superdelegates exist in the first place. You can agree or disagree with their existence in this and future nomination processes, but they were created leading up to the 1984 Presidential Election for the specific purpose of making sure the party put forward a candidate most capable of winning the White House. In that year, although the pledged delegate count slightly favored Part favorite Walter Mondale over Gary Hart, almost all superdelegates threw their support to Walter Mondale (who promptly got annihilated by Ronald Reagan in the general election - something about telling the truth about taxes that the American public didn't want to hear). If Gary Hart had wound up with slightly more pledged delegates than Walter Mondale, Mondale still would have won the nomination, because most superdelegates still considered him to have the best chance to beat Reagan.

If Hillary Clinton finishes the primary season about 100 delegates behind Barack Obama, it would not be dramatically different than the scenario considered by the DNC when they created superdelegates in the first place. Even after winning a majority of the pledged delegates, (and he will) Barack Obama could be considered to have too much baggage (read Reverend Jeremiah Wright) and the superdelegates could decide that Hillary Clinton has the best chance to grab 270 electoral votes in November.

That is the theory and that is the reason why both candidates will remain in the hunt through the final primary in early June.

So what will happen? Well, if you want to move to a remote island or not pay attention to any news reports over the next 6 months, here is a capsule:

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will roughly split the remaining pledged delegates in the upcoming primaries (Clinton probably gets about 20 delegates closer)

The remaining undeclared superdelegates roughly split between Obama and Clinton.

At the convention, Obama wins by about 150 delegates. My guess is Virginia puts him over the top in the roll call vote.

Everyone hugs and kisses and makes up.

The Republicans (but not McCain) attack Obama's controversial weak points (Rev. Wright, patriotism, etc.) and McCain hits on Obama's lack of experience.

The American public considers it all old news (yes Barack, you can thank Hilary for defusing all these potential bombs during the primaries) and doesn't pay much attention to it. The just want jobs and the belief that gas prices will decline in the future.

Obama takes 290 electoral votes in November. The electoral map becomes a bit more purple as some red states vote for Obama and some Blue states vote for McCain. This is not a bad thing.

Remember that you read it first here.