Indiana & North Carolina - Call Them!

Indiana - Clinton 54, Obama 46
North Carolina - Obama 56, Clinton 44

I think the undecided continues to break a little more for Clinton than Obama in Indiana stretching the gap a little more than most polls (Zogby with Obama ahead being the exception). I think most polls are underestimating African American turnout in NC and the spread will be a bit bigger there for Obama.

Wins can be claimed by both camps in this virtual stalemate. But time is running out for Clinton.

Expect Obama's camp and the DNC to put massive pressure on the superdelegates in the next 7 days to declare (read: support Obama). The main reason is that next Tuesday, May 13th does not appear that it will be a good day for Obama with the chance that Clinton gets a big win in West Virginia. One week later on May 20th, there is at best a draw with Clinton winning big in Kentucky and Obama winning by a smaller margin in Oregon. The fear is that if Clinton wins in Oregon, and Puerto Rico coming up 10 days later, that will be several weeks of good news bulding up the Clinton campaign.

So look for a lot of emphasis on Obama's clear victory in North Carolina and news and commentary about Clinton not having the mathematical ability to overtake Obama in pledged delegates.

Clinton will not drop out. Even if she were to lose Indiana, she would not drop out. Even with money problems and a loss in Indiana, she would still almost certain cruise to victories in 3 of the next 4 primaries.

This is a good thing. As much has been made about some Democrats (young and African Americans in particular) being outraged if party officials (superdelegates) gave the nomination to Clinton even if Obama had the most pledged delegates, the noise would be even louder if party officials coerced the 1st woman with a significant chance to be her party's nominee drop out before the end of the primary season.

This game will play out to the end, everyone will have a chance to vote for their choice, the superdelegates will roughly split from this point forward and Obama will be the nominee. Democrats can then get back at pointing their venom at Republicans rather than one another.

Let the game continue!