It is an Electoral Vote Process anyway

Before we go too far into analysis on how the general election will play out in November, we need to return to the basics. The popular vote really isn't all that good an indicator of what will happen.

That is why sites like www.electoral-vote.com are so interesting. Taking a look today, May 27th, shows that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain (266 to 248) but doesn't quite have enough to win, with 24 electoral votes fully up for grabs. This reflects the close race that most political headlines refer to. However, if you click on the link to see how Hillary Clinton would fare against John McCain, it may take a few seconds to put the numbers in focus. The polls would have HIllary Clinton ahead in the electoral vote race by a whopping 133 votes, 327 to 194 with Michigan's 17 electoral votes up for grabs. There is no way to look at these numbers and not be stunned. While there are some ways to explain why the difference might be more pronounced than would occur if those votes were actually taken today, it is just too big to explain away. Some of the state results are just bizarre. Obama beat Clinton by 14 points in the North Carolina primary, but Clinton beats McCain by 6 points and McCain beats Obama by 8 points. You can say that Clinton supporters in NC just are not (yet) ready to support Obama and would vote for McCain instead, but still, how does Hillary Clinton beat McCain in a traditionally Republican state, (at least for the last 20 years).

You know all that stuff Clinton's campaign has been saying about her being more electable, that is just sour grapes, right? Right? There can't be any substance to it, can there be? How strange is it that the candidate who is on the wrong side of the delegate totals and who many have suggested drop out is actually performing substantially better on state polls. While these polls are just snapshots and a lot will happen between now and November, you still just have to look at these numbers and say, "Wow". The next time you hear the Clinton campaign say something about "electability", remember the numbers on this website and try to see the world through their eyes, at least for a moment.