The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.
In the interest of Equal Time, I also offer the wonderful McCainiac by The McCain Girls:
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Funny Videos Supporting the Presidential Candidates
A friend of mine told me about THE GREAT SCHLEP by Sarah Silverman. I laughed so hard, that I had to post it on my blog. Warning that it does have some spicey words, so you may not want to be playing it loudly in your office:
The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.
In the interest of Equal Time, I also offer the wonderful McCainiac by The McCain Girls:
The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.
In the interest of Equal Time, I also offer the wonderful McCainiac by The McCain Girls:
How the Financial Mess will Effect the Presidential Election
When I began this blog, I didn't think my Economics background would be of more than passing relevance to my writing submissions, but things have a funny way of taking unexpected turns.
For several reasons, (mostly political and for job security), the $700 BILLION bailout plan went to defeat in the House yesterday by a vote of 228-205. The markets predictably reacted in a record setting way with the DJ Average down an unlucky 777 points and the S&P and Nasdaq actually down by slightly greater percentages. (As of Noon Tuesday, with no discernible additional news, the Dow is up over 200 points, which is what the market does after an overreaction, especially at the end of a quarter).
I am a Free Market guy who believes there is a time and place for regulations and intervention and this is definitely one of them. The big question is what.
Setting aside inflationary concerns for just a moment, I believe the best structural response would be for the Fed to make sure there is enough liquidity in the market, have the FDIC insure bank accounts up to a much higher level than the current $100,000 and let companies who made stupid mistakes fend for themselves. There will be collateral damage. People will lose jobs. People will see their investments lose value. Both are unfortunate (the first much more than the second), but they happen and people survive. What we need to prevent is a run on banks, etc. Confidence that money will be available to those who need/want it is imperative. If the Fed and FDIC can do that, a congressional bill like the one just defeated may not be necessary.
We'll see how close I am to what happens, but how is this situation going to effect the Presidential Election? I am getting the sense that one campaign may implode and unless Joe Biden uncorks a few YouTube classics in this Thursday's VP debate and Barack Obama is found to have some previously undisclosed skeleton in his closet, I think the impending doom is more likely to happen on the Repub side.
As Economics becomes a bigger and bigger issue in people's minds, John McCain and Sarah Palin have little chance of winning swing voters. When Economics becomes the top issue, it is perhaps the single time when a majority of voters really do want someone smarter than them to be in the White House. Heck, I really want people smarter than me in the White House and I have a Math and Economics degree and an MBA. John McCain and Sarah Palin have the ability to appeal to people on many levels, but educational background and extraordinary intelligence are not among them.
Thursday night is the VP debate and I am really rooting for Sarah Palin to hold her own because I really do not like publicly televised train wrecks. I think she will find a way to do OK, but if not, we may be closer to the end of this campaign than we think.
For several reasons, (mostly political and for job security), the $700 BILLION bailout plan went to defeat in the House yesterday by a vote of 228-205. The markets predictably reacted in a record setting way with the DJ Average down an unlucky 777 points and the S&P and Nasdaq actually down by slightly greater percentages. (As of Noon Tuesday, with no discernible additional news, the Dow is up over 200 points, which is what the market does after an overreaction, especially at the end of a quarter).
I am a Free Market guy who believes there is a time and place for regulations and intervention and this is definitely one of them. The big question is what.
Setting aside inflationary concerns for just a moment, I believe the best structural response would be for the Fed to make sure there is enough liquidity in the market, have the FDIC insure bank accounts up to a much higher level than the current $100,000 and let companies who made stupid mistakes fend for themselves. There will be collateral damage. People will lose jobs. People will see their investments lose value. Both are unfortunate (the first much more than the second), but they happen and people survive. What we need to prevent is a run on banks, etc. Confidence that money will be available to those who need/want it is imperative. If the Fed and FDIC can do that, a congressional bill like the one just defeated may not be necessary.
We'll see how close I am to what happens, but how is this situation going to effect the Presidential Election? I am getting the sense that one campaign may implode and unless Joe Biden uncorks a few YouTube classics in this Thursday's VP debate and Barack Obama is found to have some previously undisclosed skeleton in his closet, I think the impending doom is more likely to happen on the Repub side.
As Economics becomes a bigger and bigger issue in people's minds, John McCain and Sarah Palin have little chance of winning swing voters. When Economics becomes the top issue, it is perhaps the single time when a majority of voters really do want someone smarter than them to be in the White House. Heck, I really want people smarter than me in the White House and I have a Math and Economics degree and an MBA. John McCain and Sarah Palin have the ability to appeal to people on many levels, but educational background and extraordinary intelligence are not among them.
Thursday night is the VP debate and I am really rooting for Sarah Palin to hold her own because I really do not like publicly televised train wrecks. I think she will find a way to do OK, but if not, we may be closer to the end of this campaign than we think.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Art Meets Reality for Bill Clinton
Saturday Night Live and Meet the Press are both Live on NBC less than 12 hours apart. However, it is pretty amazing that SNL PRECEDED MTP this past Sunday as a great Skit on SNL seemingly predicted what Bill Clinton would say on MTP just hours later.
Watch for yourself in the order in which they were broadcast:
Watch for yourself in the order in which they were broadcast:
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Electoral Vote Update
First an update on reactions to the 1st Presidential Debate.
As mentioned yesterday, although to me, it seemed like the debate could be called a draw in many ways, more people seemed to think Obama won the debate. This is really bad news for McCain. As mentioned in yesterday's post on The 1st Presidential Debate people tend to see in debates the result they want. In a debate that most neutral experts consider fairly even, if more people believe that Obama won, that is a reflection of their opinions of the 2 candidates.
Another good signal for Obama is how the Electoral College is looking based on recent polling. This polling was all completed before the 1st debate, so it might be even more promising for Obama later this week.
Thanks to Electoral-Vote.com here is the way the Electoral Vote count looks if we only include states in which a candidate is 5% or more ahead of their opponent:
As of today, Obama has returned to a level close to his largest total of the year with 259 electoral votes (270 needed to be elected). John McCain has returned to a level close to the lowest total he has had (163). Notice how things changed shortly after polls began reflecting the impact of the Republican National Convention and then subsided a week later and have now returned to pre-RNC levels.
Another interesting view comes to us from EVStrength.com which graphs and analyzes the numbers from Electoral-Vote.com. One of the daily stats calculated here is the totals for each candidate if they were to win all the states there THE OTHER candidate is leading by LESS than 5%. Today's total for John McCain is only 279 electoral votes. While that is 9 more than would be needed to win, that total could only be reached by McCain winning all states in which Obama is currently leading by less than 5% which includes Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire (as well as all states in which McCain is also currently leading by less than 5% such as Nevada, Ohio, Missouri and Florida). While not impossible, that is a very tall order. By contrast, if Obama were to win all of the states McCain is leading by less than 5%, his vote tally would be 375.
While it is possible for a candidate to win a state in which they are currently 5% or more behind with a little more than 5 weeks remaining, that is a big challenge. It really means that McCain has few paths to victory. McCain really needs to win Virginia and New Hampshire. It is unlikely that he will win Minnesota, because some of the reason why he is only 4% behind in that state is related to the Republican Convention taking place there and that impact is continuing to decrease. This also would mean McCain has to hold on to all states in which he is barely ahead including those by just 2% (Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida).
By the way, if that outcome were to occur, it would be a 269-269 tie. There have been many articles on this, but the Washington Post had an interesting take on it earlier this week.
As mentioned yesterday, although to me, it seemed like the debate could be called a draw in many ways, more people seemed to think Obama won the debate. This is really bad news for McCain. As mentioned in yesterday's post on The 1st Presidential Debate people tend to see in debates the result they want. In a debate that most neutral experts consider fairly even, if more people believe that Obama won, that is a reflection of their opinions of the 2 candidates.
Another good signal for Obama is how the Electoral College is looking based on recent polling. This polling was all completed before the 1st debate, so it might be even more promising for Obama later this week.
Thanks to Electoral-Vote.com here is the way the Electoral Vote count looks if we only include states in which a candidate is 5% or more ahead of their opponent:
As of today, Obama has returned to a level close to his largest total of the year with 259 electoral votes (270 needed to be elected). John McCain has returned to a level close to the lowest total he has had (163). Notice how things changed shortly after polls began reflecting the impact of the Republican National Convention and then subsided a week later and have now returned to pre-RNC levels.
Another interesting view comes to us from EVStrength.com which graphs and analyzes the numbers from Electoral-Vote.com. One of the daily stats calculated here is the totals for each candidate if they were to win all the states there THE OTHER candidate is leading by LESS than 5%. Today's total for John McCain is only 279 electoral votes. While that is 9 more than would be needed to win, that total could only be reached by McCain winning all states in which Obama is currently leading by less than 5% which includes Minnesota, Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire (as well as all states in which McCain is also currently leading by less than 5% such as Nevada, Ohio, Missouri and Florida). While not impossible, that is a very tall order. By contrast, if Obama were to win all of the states McCain is leading by less than 5%, his vote tally would be 375.
While it is possible for a candidate to win a state in which they are currently 5% or more behind with a little more than 5 weeks remaining, that is a big challenge. It really means that McCain has few paths to victory. McCain really needs to win Virginia and New Hampshire. It is unlikely that he will win Minnesota, because some of the reason why he is only 4% behind in that state is related to the Republican Convention taking place there and that impact is continuing to decrease. This also would mean McCain has to hold on to all states in which he is barely ahead including those by just 2% (Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida).
By the way, if that outcome were to occur, it would be a 269-269 tie. There have been many articles on this, but the Washington Post had an interesting take on it earlier this week.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Presidential Debate 1 Roundup
Like a Rorschach inkblot test, people seem to see in debates what they want to see based on their personality and how they see the world.
Obama kept talking about George Bush.
McCain kept referring to Obama not knowing enough about how to act in international situations.
Obama slammed McCain several times on his Economic plans, especially when he said, "You're using a hatchet when you need a scalpel", when referring to freezing budgets across the board with exceptions for the military, Veterans and a few other items.
McCain talked about he and Sarah Palin being mavericks and going against the tide and cutting out government pork.
Both pronounced the names of foreign leaders correctly and comfortably which frankly should impress everyone.
Both candidates did fine, kind of like heavyweight boxers or sumo wrestlers, trying not to make a big mistake or give their opponent an opening for a knockout punch. Most viewers believe the candidate they support won the debate.
How about those who are still undecided. I would have guessed they would be split, but a poll run by CBS indicates, that Obama gets the edge. This might be more the momentum of a week that generally favored Obama, but if a tie convinces undecided voters that Obama is the one they want to vote for, that is a very bad sign for the McCain campaign. This would actually be very similar to the impact Ronald Reagan had when he held his own against Jimmy Carter in their last debate. Once people realized Reagan would be OK, they wanted a change and knew their vote for the candidate from the party not in power would be OK.
Obama kept talking about George Bush.
McCain kept referring to Obama not knowing enough about how to act in international situations.
Obama slammed McCain several times on his Economic plans, especially when he said, "You're using a hatchet when you need a scalpel", when referring to freezing budgets across the board with exceptions for the military, Veterans and a few other items.
McCain talked about he and Sarah Palin being mavericks and going against the tide and cutting out government pork.
Both pronounced the names of foreign leaders correctly and comfortably which frankly should impress everyone.
Both candidates did fine, kind of like heavyweight boxers or sumo wrestlers, trying not to make a big mistake or give their opponent an opening for a knockout punch. Most viewers believe the candidate they support won the debate.
How about those who are still undecided. I would have guessed they would be split, but a poll run by CBS indicates, that Obama gets the edge. This might be more the momentum of a week that generally favored Obama, but if a tie convinces undecided voters that Obama is the one they want to vote for, that is a very bad sign for the McCain campaign. This would actually be very similar to the impact Ronald Reagan had when he held his own against Jimmy Carter in their last debate. Once people realized Reagan would be OK, they wanted a change and knew their vote for the candidate from the party not in power would be OK.
Friday, September 26, 2008
The Debate about The Debate
Is there such a thing as a 1 person debate? No. That is properly referred to as a free 1 Hour Town Hall Meeting before a record viewing audience close to 100 million.
That, my friends, is why I have every reason to believe that John McCain will find his way to the University of Mississippi tonight. That and the fact that even though he has been in DC for more than a day now, he has not been very involved in any discussions around the bailout proposals. John McCain being away for a few hours on a Friday night won't have any impact on Congress reaching an agreement.
So do Americans think there should be a debate Friday? There are a few polls out on it including one by Survey USA that indicates a resounding YES by 75% of those polled.
So we shall see, but I think when John McCain announces he will be there to debate it will make headlines and he will play it up about being a Statesman, etc. However, most of the country thinks this was a bit of grandstanding and not showing up probably would have buried his campaign into a deeper hole than it already seems to be in.
UPDATE AT 11:30AM - JOHN MCCAIN WILL TAKE PART IN THE DEBATE
Not a surprise if you read our blog entry earlier today. Not even the way it is being communicated and spun. Let's all enjoy tonight's debate.
That, my friends, is why I have every reason to believe that John McCain will find his way to the University of Mississippi tonight. That and the fact that even though he has been in DC for more than a day now, he has not been very involved in any discussions around the bailout proposals. John McCain being away for a few hours on a Friday night won't have any impact on Congress reaching an agreement.
So do Americans think there should be a debate Friday? There are a few polls out on it including one by Survey USA that indicates a resounding YES by 75% of those polled.
So we shall see, but I think when John McCain announces he will be there to debate it will make headlines and he will play it up about being a Statesman, etc. However, most of the country thinks this was a bit of grandstanding and not showing up probably would have buried his campaign into a deeper hole than it already seems to be in.
UPDATE AT 11:30AM - JOHN MCCAIN WILL TAKE PART IN THE DEBATE
Not a surprise if you read our blog entry earlier today. Not even the way it is being communicated and spun. Let's all enjoy tonight's debate.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Can Politicians Solve a Financial Crisis?
First, it isn't clear if any sitting member of Congress really understands the complexities of our current Financial situation enough to determine:
How serious is it really?
What steps are necessary now?
What other measures should be taken to protect taxpayers without negating the impact?
This is not surprising. There are many economists who are struggling to really understand exactly what is happening and what steps should be taken.
Fortunately, there are some members of Congress who have enough of an idea of how bad things really are and what it may take to keep us out of further problems. Most of them sit on the House and Senate banking Committees. The chairs of those committees, Barney Frank (House) and Chris Dodd (Senate) have teams of economic and financial experts on their staff who have been working to create a proposal that will help the situation without creating other problems, like say adding $700 Billion to the already large and growing National Debt without any opportunity to make a claim on future profits from the financial institutions that are being bailed out.
The names McCain and Obama did not appear in that last paragraph and with good reason. They don't belong there. They should find a way to be available to vote on the proposal, but their presence (and that of the national media covering every word, gesture and scratch) will not improve or speed up the process to get to an agreement on a solution. Despite the fact that one of these gentlemen will inherit the aftermath of whatever is passed and its aftermath, this is one of many critical situations they will walk into, none of which they currently have any more authority to engage in other than being members of the Senate who are not on the committee with primary responsibility for the issue.
As for John McCain suspending his campaign and claiming he will not debate tommorrow night unless there is a resolution, here is how Dave Letterman took McCain's cancellation of being on his show on Wednesday night (taped Wed afternoon):
How serious is it really?
What steps are necessary now?
What other measures should be taken to protect taxpayers without negating the impact?
This is not surprising. There are many economists who are struggling to really understand exactly what is happening and what steps should be taken.
Fortunately, there are some members of Congress who have enough of an idea of how bad things really are and what it may take to keep us out of further problems. Most of them sit on the House and Senate banking Committees. The chairs of those committees, Barney Frank (House) and Chris Dodd (Senate) have teams of economic and financial experts on their staff who have been working to create a proposal that will help the situation without creating other problems, like say adding $700 Billion to the already large and growing National Debt without any opportunity to make a claim on future profits from the financial institutions that are being bailed out.
The names McCain and Obama did not appear in that last paragraph and with good reason. They don't belong there. They should find a way to be available to vote on the proposal, but their presence (and that of the national media covering every word, gesture and scratch) will not improve or speed up the process to get to an agreement on a solution. Despite the fact that one of these gentlemen will inherit the aftermath of whatever is passed and its aftermath, this is one of many critical situations they will walk into, none of which they currently have any more authority to engage in other than being members of the Senate who are not on the committee with primary responsibility for the issue.
As for John McCain suspending his campaign and claiming he will not debate tommorrow night unless there is a resolution, here is how Dave Letterman took McCain's cancellation of being on his show on Wednesday night (taped Wed afternoon):
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
First Presidential Debate or Not?
The last 2 months of a Presidential Campaign usually are very fluid with activity providing daily change and stories, but today has been like diarrhea.
How serious is the current financial situation in the US? Serious enough that something needs to be done in the next few days to prevent a confidence problem that could have some serious impact on financial markets, liquidity, foreign investment, currency rates, etc. (Having an Economics degree helps figure out at least what fields we are playing in).
What would happen if nothing is done? I really don't want to think too much about that. Nasty.
Will something get done? Yes.
Will it be correct?
Will it be enough?
What will the long term effects be?
How will it effect the average US citizen? Now we are asking the right questions.
How will John McCain and Barack Obama suspending their campaigns and being part of the negotiations in Congress help them reach an agreement? Unlikely to help, could possibly hurt, will definitely make it an even bigger media circus.
Reality - John McCain and Barack Obama are 2 of 100 US Senators and have no higher level authority than that. Neither would be playing a major role in this situation based on their Financial and Economics background if they were not running for President. The only thing they can contribute to the negotiation is politics. I would prefer if neither one has anything to do with the negotiation. There are 98 other senators and upwards of 435 Representatives who along with their staffs are more than enough people to be working on this. They all realize how important it is and having the 2 Presidential Campaigns injected into the fray won't improve the chances of coming to a workable solution.
I have no idea why John McCain is suspending campaigning and saying he won't debate Friday if there is no resolution yet. I know how it looks. I have no idea if he really believes it will help.
Listen to these press conferences from today yourself:
How serious is the current financial situation in the US? Serious enough that something needs to be done in the next few days to prevent a confidence problem that could have some serious impact on financial markets, liquidity, foreign investment, currency rates, etc. (Having an Economics degree helps figure out at least what fields we are playing in).
What would happen if nothing is done? I really don't want to think too much about that. Nasty.
Will something get done? Yes.
Will it be correct?
Will it be enough?
What will the long term effects be?
How will it effect the average US citizen? Now we are asking the right questions.
How will John McCain and Barack Obama suspending their campaigns and being part of the negotiations in Congress help them reach an agreement? Unlikely to help, could possibly hurt, will definitely make it an even bigger media circus.
Reality - John McCain and Barack Obama are 2 of 100 US Senators and have no higher level authority than that. Neither would be playing a major role in this situation based on their Financial and Economics background if they were not running for President. The only thing they can contribute to the negotiation is politics. I would prefer if neither one has anything to do with the negotiation. There are 98 other senators and upwards of 435 Representatives who along with their staffs are more than enough people to be working on this. They all realize how important it is and having the 2 Presidential Campaigns injected into the fray won't improve the chances of coming to a workable solution.
I have no idea why John McCain is suspending campaigning and saying he won't debate Friday if there is no resolution yet. I know how it looks. I have no idea if he really believes it will help.
Listen to these press conferences from today yourself:
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
What to Look for in the First Debate
Round 1 of the 3 presidential Debates is this Friday, September 26th being broadcast on many channels. I have seen estimates that as many as 100 million people could watch this first debate, although I find that estimate a bit over the top, but we will see. That viewership in the US would put it somewhere between the M*A*S*H Finale in 1983 (105.9 Million) and Super Bowl XLII earlier this year (97.5 Million)
The most important thing to understand about Presidential Debates are that they aren't really debates, at least not in terms of how someone wins. Most debates under any of the regularly recognized formats are decided based on who presents the most convincing arguments. Presidential debates usually provide a "winner's boost" to the campaign of the candidate who seems the most presidential, almost regardless of the quality of arguments.
It is on this basis that I believe Barack Obama will be highly challenged to come away with a decisive win. In most classic debating styles with formal judges, Obama would probably clean McCain's clock. But his greatest strength in those types of debates could be his Achilles Heel in the Presidential Debates. He needs to be direct, brief, confident and relaxed. His tendency to become too wordy and wonky will not play well to a national audience. McCain is unlikely to succumb to wordiness. McCain's biggest threat is to make a verbal blunder, but in reality, those have not happened too often in Presidential Debates, which is why we remember so well Gerry Ford's Freeing of Eastern Europe, George Bush's watch checking and Al Gore's ominous sighs. McCain can come off more folksy than Obama in a setting like this and that often plays very well.
McCain will have the advantage that the debate is on International issues although don't be surprised if someone the topic of the recent Financial Fallout in the US creeps into proceedings.
Obama needs to channel one of two great Presidential debaters who convinced the viewing public that they were solid enough to become president. Ronald Reagan gave many voters a reason to vote for him just because he stood his ground in the last debate. Bill Clinton (with help from George Bush's watch), won the election in the Town Hall-style debate when he left the podium and walked toward the audience and spoke TO THEM. Even viewers felt like he was talking to them, rather than debating, and that probably sealed the deal.
The most important thing to understand about Presidential Debates are that they aren't really debates, at least not in terms of how someone wins. Most debates under any of the regularly recognized formats are decided based on who presents the most convincing arguments. Presidential debates usually provide a "winner's boost" to the campaign of the candidate who seems the most presidential, almost regardless of the quality of arguments.
It is on this basis that I believe Barack Obama will be highly challenged to come away with a decisive win. In most classic debating styles with formal judges, Obama would probably clean McCain's clock. But his greatest strength in those types of debates could be his Achilles Heel in the Presidential Debates. He needs to be direct, brief, confident and relaxed. His tendency to become too wordy and wonky will not play well to a national audience. McCain is unlikely to succumb to wordiness. McCain's biggest threat is to make a verbal blunder, but in reality, those have not happened too often in Presidential Debates, which is why we remember so well Gerry Ford's Freeing of Eastern Europe, George Bush's watch checking and Al Gore's ominous sighs. McCain can come off more folksy than Obama in a setting like this and that often plays very well.
McCain will have the advantage that the debate is on International issues although don't be surprised if someone the topic of the recent Financial Fallout in the US creeps into proceedings.
Obama needs to channel one of two great Presidential debaters who convinced the viewing public that they were solid enough to become president. Ronald Reagan gave many voters a reason to vote for him just because he stood his ground in the last debate. Bill Clinton (with help from George Bush's watch), won the election in the Town Hall-style debate when he left the podium and walked toward the audience and spoke TO THEM. Even viewers felt like he was talking to them, rather than debating, and that probably sealed the deal.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
May the Voting Begin!
Monday, September 22nd marks the opening of voting in 3 states, Georgia, Kentucky and Virginia. The first debate isn't until this Friday, September 26th. I think you'd have to be pretty confident that there was nothing that could possibly change your mind in order to vote before even the first debate. The outcomes in Georgia and Kentucky are pretty certain, but Virginia is a toss-up at this point.
According to USA Today, 34 states plus DC allow for voting prior to Election Day. That does add a wrinkle to 'Getting Out the Vote'. Early voting has been a growing trend and some states will experience 25-50% of their total votes being cast early. I would be interested in seeing how the 2 campaigns have modified traditional ground games to deal with that many votes being cast in advance of Election Day. If you find a good source, send it to me.
Polls seem to be indicating that the 2 candidates are approximately back to where they were prior to the 2 conventions. The so-called 'beauty contest' of national polls shows Obama with anywhere from a 1 to 7 point lead. The counts of probably electoral votes shows Obama a little ahead. The biggest difference is that McCain has a slight increase in the expected number of electoral votes and Obama has fewer states where his is at least 5% ahead. A great place to see this is at Electoral-vote.com.
By the way, the particular way the states are awarded and the total electoral vote count for today 9/22/2008 at electoral-vote.com is my prediction for how this race will finish (273-265 Obama)
Polls the remainder of this week will continue to see the fading of any effects from the conventions. We will have to wait until some time next week to see the impact of the first debate.
According to USA Today, 34 states plus DC allow for voting prior to Election Day. That does add a wrinkle to 'Getting Out the Vote'. Early voting has been a growing trend and some states will experience 25-50% of their total votes being cast early. I would be interested in seeing how the 2 campaigns have modified traditional ground games to deal with that many votes being cast in advance of Election Day. If you find a good source, send it to me.
Polls seem to be indicating that the 2 candidates are approximately back to where they were prior to the 2 conventions. The so-called 'beauty contest' of national polls shows Obama with anywhere from a 1 to 7 point lead. The counts of probably electoral votes shows Obama a little ahead. The biggest difference is that McCain has a slight increase in the expected number of electoral votes and Obama has fewer states where his is at least 5% ahead. A great place to see this is at Electoral-vote.com.
By the way, the particular way the states are awarded and the total electoral vote count for today 9/22/2008 at electoral-vote.com is my prediction for how this race will finish (273-265 Obama)
Polls the remainder of this week will continue to see the fading of any effects from the conventions. We will have to wait until some time next week to see the impact of the first debate.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Michael Dukakis Speaks on the 2008 Election
On Wednesday, September 17th, (Constitution Day), Michael Dukakis spoke to a large lecture hall crowd at his alma mater of Swarthmore College (which also happens to be my alma mater).
Early on, he asks for forgiveness saying that is he had beaten Old Man Bush, we would never have heard about his kid and wouldn't be in this mess.
It is a fun presentation with some interesting inside stories and admissions, including a great story about meeting his wife, Kitty, and forgetting that he was still "miked-up" by one of the News Networks following him.
A good if sometimes rambling talk. Definitely worth watching.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
A "The Economy, Stupid" Reprise
In his 1992 presidential campaign, Bill Clinton's campaign strategist James Carville hung a sign in their campaign headquarters in Little Rock, AR with 3 points they wanted to emphasize.
The number 2 point wound up becoming the driving slogan that helped unseat a sitting president:
"The economy, stupid"
This year, the economy was the biggest issue according to voters even before the fallout from sub-prime mortgages and the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG and 2 very large drops in the stock market in recent days. Economics is not John McCain's strong suit by his own admission. Barack Obama isn't threatening to win the Nobel Prize in Economics, but he can run a few circles around John McCain. He also doesn't have the weight of the Bush legacy and 2 decades of voting for deregulation to drag around. As the economy plays heavier on voters minds, their votes are more likely to shift toward Obama.
Want to know what the other 2 campaign messages were on the Clinton headquarters sign? Well, number 3 was:
"Don't forget health care"
Twenty six year later and it is still a very hot topic, perhaps outdone only by the economy.
And ringing in at number 1?
"Change vs. more of the same"
Wow, doesn't that sound familiar. If the Clinton's had trademarked that line, Hillary might have received enough royalties from the Obama campaign to pay off her own campaign debt.
The number 2 point wound up becoming the driving slogan that helped unseat a sitting president:
This year, the economy was the biggest issue according to voters even before the fallout from sub-prime mortgages and the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and AIG and 2 very large drops in the stock market in recent days. Economics is not John McCain's strong suit by his own admission. Barack Obama isn't threatening to win the Nobel Prize in Economics, but he can run a few circles around John McCain. He also doesn't have the weight of the Bush legacy and 2 decades of voting for deregulation to drag around. As the economy plays heavier on voters minds, their votes are more likely to shift toward Obama.
Want to know what the other 2 campaign messages were on the Clinton headquarters sign? Well, number 3 was:
Twenty six year later and it is still a very hot topic, perhaps outdone only by the economy.
And ringing in at number 1?
Wow, doesn't that sound familiar. If the Clinton's had trademarked that line, Hillary might have received enough royalties from the Obama campaign to pay off her own campaign debt.
The Tipping Point of the Campaign
We are at a very interesting point in the 2008 Presidential Election.
John McCain received a significant boost from his Palinization both in the popular vote and the estimated electoral vote count. That bump seems to have subsided to the point that McCain and Obama are now virtually tied in total support and the all important electoral vote totals.
Is this the top for McCain/Palin and all/most of the swing states will start turning shades of Blue or will they continue to keep the Obama camp off-balance and lock down the vote of everyone who wants a seemingly known commodity?
Will Obama/Biden continue to lose the seemingly insurmountable structural lead they had (Economy, Iraq, 8 yrs of Bush, etc.) and become a classic case study on what not to do in an election or will their message focused more on issues than opponent be embraced once again by the electorate and turn the country into a lot of purple states?
It definitely could go either way and a major gaff (4 debates starting Sept 26th) or uncovered dirt could swing voters significantly one way or the other.
However, there are some signs that momentum is headed in one direction.
The media is starting to hit at John McCain and Sarah Palin for a relatively steady diet of truth-stretching on Barack Obama and themselves. Denials as John McCain did on "The View" will buy you some time with the public, but after a while, the cumulative effect has a impact, like jabs in a boxing match. The nice wax job, er, I mean shine, that was on the McCain-Palin ticket after the Convention, has started to wear off and that is most likely to continue.
In August, Barack Obama raised $66 Million in August, an all-time record for a month and almost the entire amount of $85 Million that John McCain will get for the remainder of the Campaign from Public Financing. Yet, at least in Pennsylvania (a battleground state) we are still seeing more TV time ads from McCain. There are 2 facts that are very important here: Barack Obama will wind up raising more money than John McCain will get from Public Financing, and since the Conventions, Obama has probably spent less than McCain on advertising. That either means his campaign will have a lot more money to spend than McCain in the final weeks of the election and/or they are spending a lot more on the ground game, which tends to be the deciding factor in most close states.
It would not surprise me at all if the electoral vote totals seen at Electoral-Vote.com or other websites have McCains numbers dropping from this point until Election Day.
LATE UPDATE - According to Gallup and Zogby, the momentum has already shifted to Obama as he leads in both polls 47%-45%. Gallup shows the day by day polling numbers along a dateline so you can see the impact of the Conventions (although it doesn't show pre-Democratic Convention numbers). Zogby is just
John McCain received a significant boost from his Palinization both in the popular vote and the estimated electoral vote count. That bump seems to have subsided to the point that McCain and Obama are now virtually tied in total support and the all important electoral vote totals.
Is this the top for McCain/Palin and all/most of the swing states will start turning shades of Blue or will they continue to keep the Obama camp off-balance and lock down the vote of everyone who wants a seemingly known commodity?
Will Obama/Biden continue to lose the seemingly insurmountable structural lead they had (Economy, Iraq, 8 yrs of Bush, etc.) and become a classic case study on what not to do in an election or will their message focused more on issues than opponent be embraced once again by the electorate and turn the country into a lot of purple states?
It definitely could go either way and a major gaff (4 debates starting Sept 26th) or uncovered dirt could swing voters significantly one way or the other.
However, there are some signs that momentum is headed in one direction.
The media is starting to hit at John McCain and Sarah Palin for a relatively steady diet of truth-stretching on Barack Obama and themselves. Denials as John McCain did on "The View" will buy you some time with the public, but after a while, the cumulative effect has a impact, like jabs in a boxing match. The nice wax job, er, I mean shine, that was on the McCain-Palin ticket after the Convention, has started to wear off and that is most likely to continue.
In August, Barack Obama raised $66 Million in August, an all-time record for a month and almost the entire amount of $85 Million that John McCain will get for the remainder of the Campaign from Public Financing. Yet, at least in Pennsylvania (a battleground state) we are still seeing more TV time ads from McCain. There are 2 facts that are very important here: Barack Obama will wind up raising more money than John McCain will get from Public Financing, and since the Conventions, Obama has probably spent less than McCain on advertising. That either means his campaign will have a lot more money to spend than McCain in the final weeks of the election and/or they are spending a lot more on the ground game, which tends to be the deciding factor in most close states.
It would not surprise me at all if the electoral vote totals seen at Electoral-Vote.com or other websites have McCains numbers dropping from this point until Election Day.
LATE UPDATE - According to Gallup and Zogby, the momentum has already shifted to Obama as he leads in both polls 47%-45%. Gallup shows the day by day polling numbers along a dateline so you can see the impact of the Conventions (although it doesn't show pre-Democratic Convention numbers). Zogby is just
Monday, September 15, 2008
Sarah Palin as Tina Fey???
Life imitating Art imitating Life.
Apparently, Sarah Palin once dressed up as Tina Fey for Halloween as was stated by Scott Conroy in this article on the CBS News website:
Perhaps some things are just destined to happen.
Apparently, Sarah Palin once dressed up as Tina Fey for Halloween as was stated by Scott Conroy in this article on the CBS News website:
According to her spokesperson Tracey Schmitt, the real Sarah Palin had a good laugh along with the press corps in the back of the plane and millions of Americans at home.
“She thought it was quite funny, particularly because she once dressed up as Tina Fey for Halloween,” Schmitt said.
Perhaps some things are just destined to happen.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Sarah Palin on SNL? A Great 'Fey'k
You may have read it in our Voting Booth Blog first, Tina Fey is the perfect person to play Sarah Palin and this past Saturday was her first official performance. Tina even picked up the Frances McDormand in 'Fargo' accent where Sarah Palin shows her Mountain States origin.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Campaign Reform Dies a Final Death
Yesterday's non-posting was a Blog Day of Silence for the Victims of September 11th.
Unfortunately, now we have to deal with the realities of politics.
When it was determined that John McCain and Barack Obama would be their party's nominees, I was actually cautiously optimistic that we might have a general election campaign that was exemplary for appropriate financing with a discussion of the real issues effecting the country without childish bickering. For if these 2 upstanding gentlemen were not able to battle fairly, we should pretty much forget that ever being a possibility. Well, time to forget it.
John McCain is using public financing for his campaign, but Barack Obama opted out of it. Although there are merits to getting money in relatively small amounts from by far the largest number of people to contribute to a Presidential Campaign, this isn't the campaign finance reform we thought we would get.
As for advertising...Karl Rove still rules the day and Lee Atwater is looking on from afar and smiling. The Repubs are smart about what it takes to win the Presidency. Like making sausages, it isn't pretty. The book In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns by John G. Geer is probably required reading at the RNC. Almost all campaign ads stretch the truth to make their side look better and the other side worse. But some recent ads have been despicable and/or silly.
Barack Obama's use of the term "lipstick on a pig" when describing John McCain's policies was perhaps an ill-timed use of a fairly well-trodden phrase. However, the McCain camp's assertion that Obama was calling Sarah Palin a pig demeans every person with a brain. If any outrage should have emanated from this line, it is that Obama was inferring that the pig is John McCain's candidacy and Sarah Palin is the lipstick being applied to it (actually, this is fairly funny and somewhat accurate given recent changes in polling).
The Repubs then came out on the eve of 9/11 with an ad that implied that Barack Obama favors sex education for kindergartners. In actuality, in the Illinois Senate, Obama voted for, but was not even the sponsor of, a law dealing with 'age-appropriate' sex education for grades K-12. For kindergartners, 'age-appropriate' material deals with information on becoming aware of and fending off sexual predators, which is very important. If McCain is trying to distance himself from George W., his campaign has started to remind people just how similar the people around him are to the current administration. After being abused at the Republican Convention, the media noticeably backed off, trying to repair their image as not being too far left. But garbage like this will put the media back on their game.
Senator Obama has not been Mr. Clean either. Although his distortions haven't made people want to puke, they haven't fairly described John McCain's policies. However, in an effort to use only facts, their most recent ad is kind of funny. A new ad called 'Still' ('1982' appears prominently on the screen), makes some fair hits on McCain, his knowledge of Economics and his tax proposals, but it also says:
"He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an email."
True, but that has never been a requirement for the Presidency (or being a CEO, etc.). It is a way to say 'old' without using the word. But Sarah Palin sold the Alaskan governor's jet on eBay, so she can teach John McCain how to use the Net. Or they can bring in Al Gore as a Special Advisor since he created it in the first place.
Unfortunately, now we have to deal with the realities of politics.
When it was determined that John McCain and Barack Obama would be their party's nominees, I was actually cautiously optimistic that we might have a general election campaign that was exemplary for appropriate financing with a discussion of the real issues effecting the country without childish bickering. For if these 2 upstanding gentlemen were not able to battle fairly, we should pretty much forget that ever being a possibility. Well, time to forget it.
John McCain is using public financing for his campaign, but Barack Obama opted out of it. Although there are merits to getting money in relatively small amounts from by far the largest number of people to contribute to a Presidential Campaign, this isn't the campaign finance reform we thought we would get.
As for advertising...Karl Rove still rules the day and Lee Atwater is looking on from afar and smiling. The Repubs are smart about what it takes to win the Presidency. Like making sausages, it isn't pretty. The book In Defense of Negativity: Attack Ads in Presidential Campaigns by John G. Geer is probably required reading at the RNC. Almost all campaign ads stretch the truth to make their side look better and the other side worse. But some recent ads have been despicable and/or silly.
Barack Obama's use of the term "lipstick on a pig" when describing John McCain's policies was perhaps an ill-timed use of a fairly well-trodden phrase. However, the McCain camp's assertion that Obama was calling Sarah Palin a pig demeans every person with a brain. If any outrage should have emanated from this line, it is that Obama was inferring that the pig is John McCain's candidacy and Sarah Palin is the lipstick being applied to it (actually, this is fairly funny and somewhat accurate given recent changes in polling).
The Repubs then came out on the eve of 9/11 with an ad that implied that Barack Obama favors sex education for kindergartners. In actuality, in the Illinois Senate, Obama voted for, but was not even the sponsor of, a law dealing with 'age-appropriate' sex education for grades K-12. For kindergartners, 'age-appropriate' material deals with information on becoming aware of and fending off sexual predators, which is very important. If McCain is trying to distance himself from George W., his campaign has started to remind people just how similar the people around him are to the current administration. After being abused at the Republican Convention, the media noticeably backed off, trying to repair their image as not being too far left. But garbage like this will put the media back on their game.
Senator Obama has not been Mr. Clean either. Although his distortions haven't made people want to puke, they haven't fairly described John McCain's policies. However, in an effort to use only facts, their most recent ad is kind of funny. A new ad called 'Still' ('1982' appears prominently on the screen), makes some fair hits on McCain, his knowledge of Economics and his tax proposals, but it also says:
"He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an email."
True, but that has never been a requirement for the Presidency (or being a CEO, etc.). It is a way to say 'old' without using the word. But Sarah Palin sold the Alaskan governor's jet on eBay, so she can teach John McCain how to use the Net. Or they can bring in Al Gore as a Special Advisor since he created it in the first place.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
They Wouldn't Say It If It Wasn't True. Would They?
If a candidate says it to a national audience, it must be true.
If a campaign creates a TV ad and says something, it must be a fact.
Right? Right?
Maybe not. Want to know what the real deal is? Check out FactCheck.org. They are also now creating a Joe Friday-style 'Just the Facts' site The Wire
If a campaign creates a TV ad and says something, it must be a fact.
Right? Right?
Maybe not. Want to know what the real deal is? Check out FactCheck.org. They are also now creating a Joe Friday-style 'Just the Facts' site The Wire
Debater Up!
We have gone through 3 of the 5 stages of a presidential election. The candidacies, the primaries and the conventions are all done. The 4th phase is the debates, so let's go over that a bit.
The 4 debates will be:
3 Presidential Debates
Sept. 26, at Ole Miss., moderator - Jim Lehrer, PBS
Oct. 7, in Nashville, moderator - Tom Brokaw, NBC
Oct. 15, at Hofstra, moderator - Bob Schieffer, CBS
1 Vice Presidential Debate
Oct. 2, at Wash. U in St. Louis - Gwen Ifill, PBS
Although the Presidential Debates will be interesting, at this point, I'll bet more people will be watching the one Vice-Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. Joe Biden has over 20 years experience in the Senate and is the head of the Foreign Relations Committee. Sarah Palin is just 2 years removed from being mayor of a town small enough to fit comfortably in an NBA arena with enough extra seats to hold their snacks and drinks. Joe Biden may not stand a chance. I could go over all the reasons why this supposed overmatch is truly counterintuitive, but they are so very eloquently and humorously stated in this great article by Dahlia Lithwick "How To Debate a Girl, and Win".
The 4 debates will be:
3 Presidential Debates
Sept. 26, at Ole Miss., moderator - Jim Lehrer, PBS
Oct. 7, in Nashville, moderator - Tom Brokaw, NBC
Oct. 15, at Hofstra, moderator - Bob Schieffer, CBS
1 Vice Presidential Debate
Oct. 2, at Wash. U in St. Louis - Gwen Ifill, PBS
Although the Presidential Debates will be interesting, at this point, I'll bet more people will be watching the one Vice-Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. Joe Biden has over 20 years experience in the Senate and is the head of the Foreign Relations Committee. Sarah Palin is just 2 years removed from being mayor of a town small enough to fit comfortably in an NBA arena with enough extra seats to hold their snacks and drinks. Joe Biden may not stand a chance. I could go over all the reasons why this supposed overmatch is truly counterintuitive, but they are so very eloquently and humorously stated in this great article by Dahlia Lithwick "How To Debate a Girl, and Win".
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
What's Bubbling Up?
We're still in a period of flux, but here are the interesting items that could prove to be significant:
First and foremost is the continued edge McCain has over Obama in nationwide polling. The most widely recognized poll, Gallup also is providing McCain with the largest lead, 49%-44%. Others, including Rasmussen (48%-48%) are showing the race effectively tied. It will stay basically like this until the debates.
State polls taken by Rasmussen after the Reupblican Convention are beginning to come in and they are really a mixed bag. Ohio, a statistical tie for a long time, now shows McCain in front by 7 points. Other than that, the results show hope for McCain, but if his post Convention bounce is as high as he gets, he could be in trouble. Some states generally considered likely Obama wins have gotten much closer, but keep Obama in the lead (Washington - 4 points - Survey USA), (Pennsylvania - 2 points). Some battleground states thought to be leaning Obama are still there (Colorado - 3 points). Perhaps most interestingly, some battleground states that McCain probably cannot win without are very, very close even after his bounce (Virginia 49-47 McCain - both Rasmussen and Survey USA), (Florida - TIED 48-48!) So has McCain really gotten a bounce that will help him win the election? If McCain does not win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, it is almost certainly over. Two of those 3 don't look particularly strong at what may be his highest point. Gaining votes in Wyoming and Oklahoma may help his national numbers, but don't change the electoral vote landscape.
2 very interesting stances from the RNC that are like a Prevent Defense: McCain's camp has said several times in the last few days that this campaign is not about issues. That is a very odd and interesting statement, and probably one they need to make to have a chance to win. It has been said that the very wise Republican campaign leaders are able to get enough voters to vote against their best interests in order to win an election, and that is about what it will take this year. Also Sarah Palin has been shielded from the media, hence no Face the Nation, Meet the Press, etc. so far. In fact, a McCain aide told journalists that all Sarah Palin flights would be 'off the record' unless the media were told otherwise. She has agreed to a taped, multi-day interview with Charles Gibson of ABC later this week. That format definitely allows for dealing with any verbal snafus.
The 'Bridge to Nowhere' is being trumped in a lot of McCain adds as something that shows Sarah Palin's independence and desire to get rid of inappropriate spending. There are a lot of sources now contradicting Palin's original stance on the matter, so that might come back to haunt them. Also, there are reports today that Sarah Palin claimed a per diem allowance on over 300 occasions when she was actually home in Wasilla and that she also submitted travel reimbursements of over $40,000 for her husband and children. All legal items and less than her predecessor, but it may be difficult to continue portraying her as a fiscal conservative.
And, lest we forget, Keith Olbermann & Chris Matthews dropped from political commentary on MSNBC for being shall we say, a bit slanted. They were actually helping to bond Republicans together against a common enemy thereby creating just the opposite result they may have intended. Part of the post Republican Convention bounce John McCain is getting is probably due to the perhaps accurate perception that the mainstream media was playing favorites.
First and foremost is the continued edge McCain has over Obama in nationwide polling. The most widely recognized poll, Gallup also is providing McCain with the largest lead, 49%-44%. Others, including Rasmussen (48%-48%) are showing the race effectively tied. It will stay basically like this until the debates.
State polls taken by Rasmussen after the Reupblican Convention are beginning to come in and they are really a mixed bag. Ohio, a statistical tie for a long time, now shows McCain in front by 7 points. Other than that, the results show hope for McCain, but if his post Convention bounce is as high as he gets, he could be in trouble. Some states generally considered likely Obama wins have gotten much closer, but keep Obama in the lead (Washington - 4 points - Survey USA), (Pennsylvania - 2 points). Some battleground states thought to be leaning Obama are still there (Colorado - 3 points). Perhaps most interestingly, some battleground states that McCain probably cannot win without are very, very close even after his bounce (Virginia 49-47 McCain - both Rasmussen and Survey USA), (Florida - TIED 48-48!) So has McCain really gotten a bounce that will help him win the election? If McCain does not win Ohio, Florida and Virginia, it is almost certainly over. Two of those 3 don't look particularly strong at what may be his highest point. Gaining votes in Wyoming and Oklahoma may help his national numbers, but don't change the electoral vote landscape.
2 very interesting stances from the RNC that are like a Prevent Defense: McCain's camp has said several times in the last few days that this campaign is not about issues. That is a very odd and interesting statement, and probably one they need to make to have a chance to win. It has been said that the very wise Republican campaign leaders are able to get enough voters to vote against their best interests in order to win an election, and that is about what it will take this year. Also Sarah Palin has been shielded from the media, hence no Face the Nation, Meet the Press, etc. so far. In fact, a McCain aide told journalists that all Sarah Palin flights would be 'off the record' unless the media were told otherwise. She has agreed to a taped, multi-day interview with Charles Gibson of ABC later this week. That format definitely allows for dealing with any verbal snafus.
The 'Bridge to Nowhere' is being trumped in a lot of McCain adds as something that shows Sarah Palin's independence and desire to get rid of inappropriate spending. There are a lot of sources now contradicting Palin's original stance on the matter, so that might come back to haunt them. Also, there are reports today that Sarah Palin claimed a per diem allowance on over 300 occasions when she was actually home in Wasilla and that she also submitted travel reimbursements of over $40,000 for her husband and children. All legal items and less than her predecessor, but it may be difficult to continue portraying her as a fiscal conservative.
And, lest we forget, Keith Olbermann & Chris Matthews dropped from political commentary on MSNBC for being shall we say, a bit slanted. They were actually helping to bond Republicans together against a common enemy thereby creating just the opposite result they may have intended. Part of the post Republican Convention bounce John McCain is getting is probably due to the perhaps accurate perception that the mainstream media was playing favorites.
Monday, September 8, 2008
A Bounce in Zero Gravity
The Conventions are over. we know what the pundits think, but what does the American voter think?
Some national polls released in the last 2 days seem to indicate that not only has McCain-Palin recovered from the Obama-Biden Convention bounce, but may actually be in the lead. Trying to look at this from as non-partisan a view as possible, that outcome is somewhat difficult to comprehend. For instance, the USA Today/Gallup Poll released today has McCain ahead of Obama 50% to 46% among registered voters and a stunning 54% to 44% among likely voters.
People may have different opinions about which Convention was better, which Presidential or VP candidate gave a better speech, but it would be challenging for anyone to claim that one was so substantially better than the other that it could create an 18 point swing (from Obama up by 8 to McCain up by 10). My favorite poll result shows that when asked "Who would do better handling the Economy?", John McCain has narrowed the gap from a 19 point Obama lead to just a 3 point lead. This change despite there not being any specific economic plans discussed or even mentioned during the Republican convention. That is a lot of changed opinions just from the often repeated statement that Obama will raise taxes and McCain will cut them (despite the analysis of their plans showing a lot more similarity than difference).
A few things contributing to such a big swing:
- not much time for the Dem bounce to keep bouncing with back to back conventions (Repubs seem to be winning the timing game)
- Palin Pandemonium - probably the biggest energizer of the convention (great timing event number 2)
- some questionable demographic assumptions in the Polls just announced (Dem-Rep registration ratio, income breakdown, Male-Female split, etc.)
It isn't worth spending much time on this analysis for 2 reasons:
- polls a week or two weeks from now may look very different as the Conventions fade in memory
- we don't elect presidents based on a national vote (ask Al Gore)
We'll wait until we start getting some post convention state polls until we start analyzing how this race is likely to turn out. I think the message for today is that the race isn't over yet, nor will it be over anytime soon.
Some national polls released in the last 2 days seem to indicate that not only has McCain-Palin recovered from the Obama-Biden Convention bounce, but may actually be in the lead. Trying to look at this from as non-partisan a view as possible, that outcome is somewhat difficult to comprehend. For instance, the USA Today/Gallup Poll released today has McCain ahead of Obama 50% to 46% among registered voters and a stunning 54% to 44% among likely voters.
People may have different opinions about which Convention was better, which Presidential or VP candidate gave a better speech, but it would be challenging for anyone to claim that one was so substantially better than the other that it could create an 18 point swing (from Obama up by 8 to McCain up by 10). My favorite poll result shows that when asked "Who would do better handling the Economy?", John McCain has narrowed the gap from a 19 point Obama lead to just a 3 point lead. This change despite there not being any specific economic plans discussed or even mentioned during the Republican convention. That is a lot of changed opinions just from the often repeated statement that Obama will raise taxes and McCain will cut them (despite the analysis of their plans showing a lot more similarity than difference).
A few things contributing to such a big swing:
- not much time for the Dem bounce to keep bouncing with back to back conventions (Repubs seem to be winning the timing game)
- Palin Pandemonium - probably the biggest energizer of the convention (great timing event number 2)
- some questionable demographic assumptions in the Polls just announced (Dem-Rep registration ratio, income breakdown, Male-Female split, etc.)
It isn't worth spending much time on this analysis for 2 reasons:
- polls a week or two weeks from now may look very different as the Conventions fade in memory
- we don't elect presidents based on a national vote (ask Al Gore)
We'll wait until we start getting some post convention state polls until we start analyzing how this race is likely to turn out. I think the message for today is that the race isn't over yet, nor will it be over anytime soon.
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Republican Convention - Day 4
John McCain finally gets to accept his party's nomination. Eight years ago, in 2000, as he battled George W. Bush for the nomination, and was politically knee-capped by Karl Rove and company, this night seemed a thousand miles away. Thirty years ago, as he spent 5 and 1/2 years in the Hanoi Hilton, the mere thought of this moment would have seemed a thousand years away. Without thinking about whether or not we support John McCain's candidacy, lets all spend just a few moments appreciating the magnitude of this event. If nothing else, this election should provide fuel for everyone to believe that no matter what your situation, anything really is possible.
In direct contrast to most of Wednesday night's speakers, John McCain says to Barack Obama, "...but you have my respect and admiration. Despite our differences, much more unites us than divides us. We are fellow Americans, and that's an association that means more to me than any other." Good on you mate for saying that.
Most of McCain's talk is about the military and dealing with countries that hate us or act with aggression. That is his strength, so best to focus on it. Then McCain says, "I hate war. It is terrible beyond imagination. I'm running for president to keep the country I love safe, and prevent other families from risking their loved ones in war as my family has". Not sure those assembled were passionate about that statement, but it will speak legions to those who are undecided.
There were other speakers on Thursday night, including Cindy McCain, but it would probably be a waste of electrons to spend space writing about them. They were far from the most passionate or effective speakers of this convention. But perhaps that was intentional, as this night needed to be dominated by John McCain.
This was not a passionate speech. But the words are incredibly compelling. Whatever happens from this point forward, you have to be happy he had this moment in time.
Are Sarah and Todd Palin the best looking husband and wife to be part of a major party Presidential Slate?
John McCain has 7 children and Sarah Palin has 5. Would their total of 12 be the largest collection of children for any Pres-VP team?
"Barracuda", by Heart, being played in honor of Sarah "Barracuda" Palin. Who knew that the sound track to the Republican Convention would be a great 80's Dance collection. I wonder if they will have it available on CD? ("Footloose", "Centerfield" and "Celebration" were just a few of the hits tonight)
In direct contrast to most of Wednesday night's speakers, John McCain says to Barack Obama, "...but you have my respect and admiration. Despite our differences, much more unites us than divides us. We are fellow Americans, and that's an association that means more to me than any other." Good on you mate for saying that.
Most of McCain's talk is about the military and dealing with countries that hate us or act with aggression. That is his strength, so best to focus on it. Then McCain says, "I hate war. It is terrible beyond imagination. I'm running for president to keep the country I love safe, and prevent other families from risking their loved ones in war as my family has". Not sure those assembled were passionate about that statement, but it will speak legions to those who are undecided.
There were other speakers on Thursday night, including Cindy McCain, but it would probably be a waste of electrons to spend space writing about them. They were far from the most passionate or effective speakers of this convention. But perhaps that was intentional, as this night needed to be dominated by John McCain.
This was not a passionate speech. But the words are incredibly compelling. Whatever happens from this point forward, you have to be happy he had this moment in time.
Are Sarah and Todd Palin the best looking husband and wife to be part of a major party Presidential Slate?
John McCain has 7 children and Sarah Palin has 5. Would their total of 12 be the largest collection of children for any Pres-VP team?
"Barracuda", by Heart, being played in honor of Sarah "Barracuda" Palin. Who knew that the sound track to the Republican Convention would be a great 80's Dance collection. I wonder if they will have it available on CD? ("Footloose", "Centerfield" and "Celebration" were just a few of the hits tonight)
Sarah Palin & Tina Fey - Separated at Birth?
I had a sense of the visual similarity, but it wasn't until listening to Sarah Palin and seeing her facial mannerisms and comic timing that it hit me just how amazingly similar these two women can appear.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that Lorne Michaels is finding a way to have Tina Fey freed up from some of her "30 Rock" responsibilities so she can play Sarah Palin on upcoming episodes of Saturday Night Live. This Saturday (9/6/08) NBC is rerunning the Tina Fey hosted episode from 2/23/08 that aired right after the Writers Strike ended. I think they are preparing people for Tina's recurring return this Fall. This episode, by the way, has the wonderful, "Bitch is the New Black" piece on the News Update section.
I could be wrong, but my guess is that Lorne Michaels is finding a way to have Tina Fey freed up from some of her "30 Rock" responsibilities so she can play Sarah Palin on upcoming episodes of Saturday Night Live. This Saturday (9/6/08) NBC is rerunning the Tina Fey hosted episode from 2/23/08 that aired right after the Writers Strike ended. I think they are preparing people for Tina's recurring return this Fall. This episode, by the way, has the wonderful, "Bitch is the New Black" piece on the News Update section.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Republican Convention - Day 3
Who threw the raw meat onto the podium?
On the night of runners-up, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Guiliani, in the course of starting their campaign for 2012 spent most of their time attacking Barack Obama, the media and Hollywood (they spread the net wide). Like last night, much bigger applause for attacking the other side than praising the McCain-Palin ticket.
Mitt finished in last place in the zinger category, but he still generated a lot of energy from the crowd.
Mike Huckabee has a knack for a zinger. For that reason (and perhaps that reason only), it would be really interesting to see him as the Republican candidate. Some good ones were "I'm not a Republican because I grew up rich, but because I didn't want to spend the rest of my life poor". He also gave a somewhat low-blow but also very funny line that Sara Palin "received more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States!". Very funny. Unfortunately, not true. I guess Mike still has problem figuring out the difference between votes and delegates.
Rudy Guiliani's best line talking about Obama changing his mind, by saying that Joe Biden better get that Vie-Presidential nomination in writing. Capping off the trio, Rudy showed that they are having trouble keeping track of what is being said somewhere in the media and what is a statement by anyone in the Obama-Biden camp. I'm not sure I have seen a reference that the Obaama-Biden camp said that Sarah Palin as a mother of 5 should be staying at home. But as Rudy said earlier in his talk (in a very ackward point), "if the facts don't work for you, change them".
Only at a Republican convention (or a Hummer Owners Reunion) and with gas at $4.00 could we hear chants of "Drill, Baby, Drill".
Hurrican Sarah blows through the Convention!
Sarah Palin sans video intro (don't bother looking at the schedule of events) does a good job showing why she rose so quickly from PTA to Governor. She is confident and sincere and comfortable speaking in front of a lot of people, even when reading a speech she didn't write. Great facial and hand expressions, she is no Dan Quayle. She will benefit tremendously from highly misinformed low expectations that a female governor from a lightly populated state that is a long trip from anywhere in the lower 48 can understand international affairs. It isn't as if she was sealed in an igloo. Her best line of the night was, "The only difference between a hockey mom and a pit-bull...is lipstick". The line you will hear the most after the convention, "Some people use change to promote their careers, John McCain uses his career to promote change". Typical for a VP speech, but perhaps a bit surprising in her first speech to the country had a lot of venom for Barack Obama. Nice slam on the faux stage at Obama's Acceptance speech saying that "...after the styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot..." and Obama's other-worldly persona, "...after he's done turning back the waters and healing the planet...". Again, lumping Democrats and Hollywood and the Media in one big ball of hate for the Republican faithful.
Not a surprise to me that her speech was very good, (she is a very good speaker). What started to hit me is how well her off-handed sense of humor will trump whatever Obama or Biden have to say (and they are both excellent speakers and debaters). She could get caught missing a fact here or there in her VP debate with Biden, but I almost get this sense that Tina Fey will be debating Biden. Facts aside, a witty hockey mom is tough to out-debate.
A very cohesive, driving, attacking night. This 3 Night format may actually wind up being the plan for future Conventions.
On the night of runners-up, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Guiliani, in the course of starting their campaign for 2012 spent most of their time attacking Barack Obama, the media and Hollywood (they spread the net wide). Like last night, much bigger applause for attacking the other side than praising the McCain-Palin ticket.
Mitt finished in last place in the zinger category, but he still generated a lot of energy from the crowd.
Mike Huckabee has a knack for a zinger. For that reason (and perhaps that reason only), it would be really interesting to see him as the Republican candidate. Some good ones were "I'm not a Republican because I grew up rich, but because I didn't want to spend the rest of my life poor". He also gave a somewhat low-blow but also very funny line that Sara Palin "received more votes running for mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, than Joe Biden got running for president of the United States!". Very funny. Unfortunately, not true. I guess Mike still has problem figuring out the difference between votes and delegates.
Rudy Guiliani's best line talking about Obama changing his mind, by saying that Joe Biden better get that Vie-Presidential nomination in writing. Capping off the trio, Rudy showed that they are having trouble keeping track of what is being said somewhere in the media and what is a statement by anyone in the Obama-Biden camp. I'm not sure I have seen a reference that the Obaama-Biden camp said that Sarah Palin as a mother of 5 should be staying at home. But as Rudy said earlier in his talk (in a very ackward point), "if the facts don't work for you, change them".
Only at a Republican convention (or a Hummer Owners Reunion) and with gas at $4.00 could we hear chants of "Drill, Baby, Drill".
Hurrican Sarah blows through the Convention!
Sarah Palin sans video intro (don't bother looking at the schedule of events) does a good job showing why she rose so quickly from PTA to Governor. She is confident and sincere and comfortable speaking in front of a lot of people, even when reading a speech she didn't write. Great facial and hand expressions, she is no Dan Quayle. She will benefit tremendously from highly misinformed low expectations that a female governor from a lightly populated state that is a long trip from anywhere in the lower 48 can understand international affairs. It isn't as if she was sealed in an igloo. Her best line of the night was, "The only difference between a hockey mom and a pit-bull...is lipstick". The line you will hear the most after the convention, "Some people use change to promote their careers, John McCain uses his career to promote change". Typical for a VP speech, but perhaps a bit surprising in her first speech to the country had a lot of venom for Barack Obama. Nice slam on the faux stage at Obama's Acceptance speech saying that "...after the styrofoam Greek columns are hauled back to some studio lot..." and Obama's other-worldly persona, "...after he's done turning back the waters and healing the planet...". Again, lumping Democrats and Hollywood and the Media in one big ball of hate for the Republican faithful.
Not a surprise to me that her speech was very good, (she is a very good speaker). What started to hit me is how well her off-handed sense of humor will trump whatever Obama or Biden have to say (and they are both excellent speakers and debaters). She could get caught missing a fact here or there in her VP debate with Biden, but I almost get this sense that Tina Fey will be debating Biden. Facts aside, a witty hockey mom is tough to out-debate.
A very cohesive, driving, attacking night. This 3 Night format may actually wind up being the plan for future Conventions.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Republican Convention - Day 2
The Bush’s came to town. George HW, George W and Laura. The best part of their trilogy was when W. said that "John McCain is not a man who's afraid to tell you when he disagrees. Believe me, I know.". The crowd really enjoyed that one. It wouldn't be the last time this evening that there would be applause to a statement that countered W. and what has happened the last 8 years. When you are the incumbent party and say that you have the real candidate of change, that is a very fine line you are walking on.
Fred Thompson gave a progressively riveting review of John McCain’s time in captivity. If you haven’t heard the full extent previously (and perhaps even if you had), you had to be moved. He did a good job even turning McCain’s opposition to Reagan’s desire to put troops in Beirut as a kudo to both parties. I hope Fred is OK, he certainly cleared his throat a lot. It was also a pretty spirited talk attacking the media occasionally and more frequently Barack Obama (without mentioning him). In fact, the loudest cheers were not for pro-McCain statements, but anti-Obama critiques. It seems that the Repubs are more united in their dislike of Obama and the Dems than they are energized by the candidacy of John McCain.
Joe Lieberman could be the first person to speak in prime time for each party just 8 years apart. Some nice things said about John McCain, the most effective was when he said that "God only made one John McCain and he is his own man". "Eloquence is no substitute for a record" was a great summary of everything the Repubs should be saying to point out their best claim as to why McCain should be in the White House. Lieberman did actually get the Repubs to applaud (although very modestly) Bill Clinton while showing the contrast between Clinton and Obama by saying that Clinton was bi-partisan in his moves to balance the budget, reform welfare and trade agreements.
If John McCain really has his way, Joe Lieberman would have been giving a speech (perhaps pretty similar to this one) on Wendesday night as his VP choice. Bi-partisanship is great, just as long as everyone on the ticket is a registered Republican.
The large HD screen behind the speaker is interesting but occasionally eerie.
The Sarah Palin issues backlash has got to be eating at the convention attendees. First a lost night due to Hurricane Gustav, then an almost all out media probe into your recenP selection. If anything, it is creating a 'circle the wagons' attitude, which could get the Repubs pretty stirred up even though they aren't particulary ready to rally around their candidates.
Fred Thompson gave a progressively riveting review of John McCain’s time in captivity. If you haven’t heard the full extent previously (and perhaps even if you had), you had to be moved. He did a good job even turning McCain’s opposition to Reagan’s desire to put troops in Beirut as a kudo to both parties. I hope Fred is OK, he certainly cleared his throat a lot. It was also a pretty spirited talk attacking the media occasionally and more frequently Barack Obama (without mentioning him). In fact, the loudest cheers were not for pro-McCain statements, but anti-Obama critiques. It seems that the Repubs are more united in their dislike of Obama and the Dems than they are energized by the candidacy of John McCain.
Joe Lieberman could be the first person to speak in prime time for each party just 8 years apart. Some nice things said about John McCain, the most effective was when he said that "God only made one John McCain and he is his own man". "Eloquence is no substitute for a record" was a great summary of everything the Repubs should be saying to point out their best claim as to why McCain should be in the White House. Lieberman did actually get the Repubs to applaud (although very modestly) Bill Clinton while showing the contrast between Clinton and Obama by saying that Clinton was bi-partisan in his moves to balance the budget, reform welfare and trade agreements.
If John McCain really has his way, Joe Lieberman would have been giving a speech (perhaps pretty similar to this one) on Wendesday night as his VP choice. Bi-partisanship is great, just as long as everyone on the ticket is a registered Republican.
The large HD screen behind the speaker is interesting but occasionally eerie.
The Sarah Palin issues backlash has got to be eating at the convention attendees. First a lost night due to Hurricane Gustav, then an almost all out media probe into your recenP selection. If anything, it is creating a 'circle the wagons' attitude, which could get the Repubs pretty stirred up even though they aren't particulary ready to rally around their candidates.
Republican Convention - Day 1
Not much to report other than good job to the Repubs for making a well co-ordinated and appropriate change given the potential of Hurricane Gustav. It is not easy to turn a big ship around and they did. Tough to put a lid on a ton of preparation, but they were looking at the big picture and did it very well. Kudos all around.
Laura Bush and Cindy McCain looked Mahvelous in their brief talk to rally the crowd around temporarily turning their support to the victims of the Hurricane. Nicely done.
The big news was what was said/released, but not at the convention:
Sarah Palin's 17 year old unmarried daughter Bristol is 5 months pregnant.
Sarah Palin had also hired an attorney to defend herself against the allegations she tried to have her Trooper former brother-in-law fired.
Sarah's husband Todd was arrested for drunk driving more than 20 years ago.
Sarah Palin is giving the media a ton of work to do.
The Tropper-gate stuff is the only one that could have real teeth, but her daughter's pregnancy just creates a lot of wheel-spinning and the DUI is a non-issue that would have become one had it come out on its own some time down the road. This is some of the stuff that can happen with a relatively candidate not well known on the national scene. Hillary Clinton has a lot more dirty laundry and inuendo in her background, but it has all been trampled to death, so it isn't really newsworthy. New dirt always has the potential to be a Headline.
Props to Barack Obama for saying family is off limits and even saying he will fire anyone on his staff who pushes any issues about Sarah Palin's family. Unfortunately, the Beast that is the media is not so easily handcuffed and even on Labor Day, with a Cat 3 Hurricane about to come close to hitting New Orleans, this stuff was making headlines.
Laura Bush and Cindy McCain looked Mahvelous in their brief talk to rally the crowd around temporarily turning their support to the victims of the Hurricane. Nicely done.
The big news was what was said/released, but not at the convention:
Sarah Palin's 17 year old unmarried daughter Bristol is 5 months pregnant.
Sarah Palin had also hired an attorney to defend herself against the allegations she tried to have her Trooper former brother-in-law fired.
Sarah's husband Todd was arrested for drunk driving more than 20 years ago.
Sarah Palin is giving the media a ton of work to do.
The Tropper-gate stuff is the only one that could have real teeth, but her daughter's pregnancy just creates a lot of wheel-spinning and the DUI is a non-issue that would have become one had it come out on its own some time down the road. This is some of the stuff that can happen with a relatively candidate not well known on the national scene. Hillary Clinton has a lot more dirty laundry and inuendo in her background, but it has all been trampled to death, so it isn't really newsworthy. New dirt always has the potential to be a Headline.
Props to Barack Obama for saying family is off limits and even saying he will fire anyone on his staff who pushes any issues about Sarah Palin's family. Unfortunately, the Beast that is the media is not so easily handcuffed and even on Labor Day, with a Cat 3 Hurricane about to come close to hitting New Orleans, this stuff was making headlines.
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