A Palin Retrospective

Politico offers an analysis of the impact of Sarah Palin's addition to the McCain ticket. It identifies 3 ways in which she was supposed to help:

1) Energize the Conservative Base
2) Attract Independents
3) Attract the PUMA group and other Hillary Clinton Supporters

Politico determines that Palin failed on all 3 accounts. The numbers are pretty clear that at best she had a neutral impact on the 2nd and 3rd items, and probably was a negative. Obama won independents by 8% and prior to the Conventions, many polls showed McCain slightly ahead among independents. Obama won women by 13% and if you watched the Vice-Presidential debate on CNN and saw the live voting reactions of undecided men and women, this was not a surprise. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin have the same XX Chromosomes, but that is about where the similarity ends. It might be difficult to find many women who are that far apart in their political views (and even political knowledge). Women weren't buying it and undecideds were perhaps turned off.

The one category I am not so easily convinced about is whether she energized the base. This is an area where the term 'compared to what' comes to mind. Politco stated that "Core Republican turnout declined 1.3 percent compared to four years ago". However, there are 3 important points to consider before drawing conclusions from that fact:

1) Republican registration dropped between 2004 and 2008
2) Almost every poll right before Election Day showed McCain behind by 5-7%.
3) We don't know what Republican turnout for McCain would have been without Palin, only the turnout in 2004.

The drop in Registration alone explains about 50% of the drop in turnout between 2004 and 2008.

A strong indication of defeat often depresses turnout for the underdog party, especially in states that are not battlegrounds and the outcome (one way or another) is almost certain.

Perhaps most importantly, we just don't know what type of turnout John McCain was looking at before he added Sarah Palin to the ticket. Certainly there was not a lot of energy within Conservative circles prior to her selection. If McCain had picked Romney or Pawlenty, would the Conservative base have been as energized? My guess is no. Turnout among Republicans could have been down by a lot more had Palin not been on the ticket.

So that's my take. Palin's impact was that Republican turnout didn't stink as badly as it would have. She was also a great support in McCain's efforts to rebrand himself as part of the Karl Rove school of Republicans which contributed to losing the Independent and Women's vote.

Coming in a future post - What could John McCain have done differently to have a realistic chance to win?