The Non-Polling Way to Predict the Winner

Until an election is over and the votes counted, the outcome is not certain.

However, there are some very important things to consider.

Al Gore and John Kerry came very close to winning the Electoral Vote. Barack Obama is doing better then either of them and John McCain is not campaigning as well and appealing to the American people as well as George Bush.

There is no claim by anyone, anywhere that John McCain will carry any state won by Al Gore or John Kerry. There is talk in the McCain camp about Pennsylvania, but that is because they have no way to claim there is a path to 270 without winning PA. The Phillies won the World Series and this area is filled with happy people. By Election Day they will be sober and looking to win something else and will turn out to vote. Heck there was about 1 Million people at the victory parade on Friday. Phillies fans are familiar with being in a place with a lot of other people for a few hours, so they will definitely turn out to vote in huge numbers on Tuesday.

There are very few people that will claim John McCain has anything but a snowball's chance in h*ll that he will hold onto Bush 2004 states Iowa and New Mexico. That pushes Obama's electoral vote total to 264.

George Bush has historically low approval ratings.

Barack Obama has historically high fundraising amounts.

Republicans all over are bailing on McCain. This last happened in the days leading up to the 1992 election when Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush.

The country wants change. I mean really wants it. They rarely seek it in a member of the same party that is currently in power.

The Obama ground game is very good. Good enough to be better than anything the Republicans can muster. And it doesn't need to be better, just close.

Finally, in the final Soccer Dad, Dance Dad, Lawn Sign Poll, we have a raw score of Obama 43, McCain 27. (This is so non-scientific that it doesn't count as a real poll.) Predominantly Republican neighborhoods had a very similar number of McCain and Obama lawn signs. Predominantly Democratic neighborhoods were almost 10-1 in favor of Obama. This doesn't replicate the actual voting totals, but it does say a lot about the people who feel strongly about their choice for President. A vote is a vote, but a passionate voter probably influences a few others and may get a few ambivalent voters to the polling place. The passion is definitely in Obama's corner and passion usually points in the direction of the winner.