Gingrich is the Republican's Best Hope

OK, so now that I have your attention, what on earth do I mean. Certainly, you say to yourself, he can't mean that Newt Gingrich has the best chance of the 4 remaining Republican candidates to beat President Obama in the general election. With that assumption, you would be...correct.

As opposed to being the Republican's best general election candidate, Newt Gingrich is the Republican's best hope that Mitt Romney manages to hang on and win the nomination. If Gingrich were to drop out, there is a good chance that Rick Santorum would win enough of the remaining primaries to make it very difficult for Mitt Romney to collect enough delegates before the Republican Convention. A mano-a-mano competition (sorry Ron Paul), would not be an easy road for Mitt Romney, even with some upcoming winner take all primaries in large states with significant urban populations.

Instead, Newt Gingrich continues to split the conservative vote with Rick Santorum, allowing Mitt Romney to continue to win primaries while not attracting more than 40% of the votes. In all polls, Mitt Romney stands the best chance against President Obama in the November general election.

So in his own twisted, self-centered way, Newt Gingrich is once again doing everything he can to bring the Republican party back to national power. Today's primaries in Mississippi and Alabama may be a very close three way battle. If Mitt Romney were to win both, even by the smallest margins, it would probably indicate to all financial backers of Santorum and Gingrich, that the party is over. Without money, they would need to fold their campaigns very shortly. If Romney had to compete against only Santorum or Gingrich, he would lose in both states, and perhaps by double digits.

Also for your reading pleasure today, this poll from Public Policy Polling for the Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Skip down to questions 22 and 23 for both states and try not to let your jaw hit your desk. Not only is Barack Obama believed to be a Muslim by 3 to 4 times as many people who believe him to be his professed faith as a Christian, but in both states, at least 60% DO NOT believe in evolution. They were not asked if they believed in evolution as opposed to Creationism, just whether or not all of the science books they read and are being read by their children in school were accurate or fabrications. Evolution and the belief that God created humans are not mutually exclusive. In fact, of those who are members of the 12 largest religious denominations in the US, approximately 80% belong to churches who SUPPORT the concept of evolution. Perhaps this is unfairly targeting these two states as a poll referenced in the Wiki article linked above shows that nationwide there is a 30% difference in support for evolution between Democrats and Republicans. However, as a guy who grew up in the north and in the first grade of a Catholic elementary school was taught evolution and religious studies in the same day, this high percentage of scientific ignorance or intolerance is pretty stunning.

Will the Republican Tuesday remain "Super"?

Ever since states started to collaborate on holding their primaries on the same day to increase their power relative to the early states (Iowa, New Hampshire, etc.), the Republican nominee has been effectively determined upon the outcome of "Super Tuesday". Will the trend continue?

In 2008, with a relative split in the delegates won on Super Tuesday, it became readily apparent that Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton were going to be battling until the last primary vote was cast. A substantial split of the delegates among Republicans on Super Tuesday 2012 would probably do the same.

However, it appears that with his narrow Michigan win last week, Mitt Romney may have enough momentum to avoid losing too many states today. Notice, this isn't a ringing endorsement of the strength of his popularity among Republican voters. When you only win by a few percentage points in your home state to a candidate who's views are anything but mainstream and who is very underfunded, that isn't a clarion call to your inevitability. But, it might be enough for Mitt. The concept of Mitt Romney losing his birth state of Michigan was so prevalent that when he held on to win, Mitt Romney seemingly beat expectations. Similarly, if Mitt Romney wins the iconic battlefield of Ohio today, almost regardless of the results in other states, it will announce the likelihood of his nomination.

A win today in Ohio and an accumulation of delegates today in the high 100s out of the 400+ available will not so much make Mitt Romney seem like the victor as much as it will make everyone come to the conclusion that neither Rick Santorum, nor Newt Gingrich, nor Ron Paul have the ability to beat Mitt Romney. Kind of backing into the nomination.

If this was the Democratic Party, I would say that the race for the presidency 2012 is over. However, the Republican Party has an uncanny ability to hold their nose and emphatically support a candidate they do not like because they realize they hate him less than his opponent, President Barack Obama.

I believe Mitt Romney will win the most states and delegates today, but both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich will win one or more states and 10-20% of the available delegates today. Mitt Romney still will not be very far ahead of the delegate count. But it will be all but over as to who will be the Republican nominee, even if nobody drops out of the race. Once they get to winner-take-all primaries, coming in second place won't matter and Mitt will coast to the convention.

Will the Real Republican Nominee Please Stand Up?

Today we get the Michigan and Arizona primaries and this surprisingly cloudy Republican primary campaign might get clearer. Or not.

Most pundits had expected Mitt Romney to have broken away from the field at this point in the campaign season given his experience from the 2008 Presidential nomination race as well as his substantial advantages in money and organization over the other candidates. As most of you know, the 2012 campaign has been a series of "Who is the Not-the-Romney today?". The last man (or woman) standing in that situation comedy series is Rick Santorum. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, who lost his last campaign trying to hold his Senate seat by double digits, is somehow leading in most national polls. (BTW - Ron Paul, although durable and perhaps the only person other than the eventual nominee who will contest throughout the campaign season, will likely never wear the crown as Not-the-Romney of the day.)

However, despite leading in national polls, the Presidential nomination race is won state by state and perception by perception. Surprisingly, the actual delegate count rarely matters until there is only one candidate remaining. If Mitt Romney wins today in Michigan, which is his birth state, he will have at least stopped the talk of him not being the nominee until Super Tuesday on March 6th. However, if Rick Santorum manages to win Michigan, this will be a wide open race and may go all the way to the convention.

Interesting, the Republican nomination campaign hinges on the state that had its major industry bailed out by the Obama Administration. This bailout was and continues to be hammered by all remaining Republican candidates. Michigan is also a state where you can be registered in one party and vote in the other party's primary (although you are then recorded as having done so).

An interesting outcome and momentum shifter rests in the Great Lakes state today.

Jon Huntsman, We Hardly Knew You

Although he was perhaps the most qualified candidate in the field to do the job of President in the Twenty-teens, and perhaps most able to appeal to moderates, Jon Huntsman's campaign never got off the ground. His third place finish in moderate New Hampshire after putting most of his chips on that primary made it undeniably clear that it wasn't going to get any better.

In another time, with a different Republican electorate, Jon Huntsman may be the right candidate. But not today, not in 2012. It isn't clear what today's Republican electorate wants. There have been enough clear messages that they don't want Mitt Romney, although that is who they are about to nominate, having not found the stomach to vote for anyone else.

Jon Huntsman seems to be a good guy, a smart guy, a guy with substantial international affairs experience, in particular with China, the single most important expanding economic power in the world. However, Jon still hasn't figured out how to master the TV/Internet sound bite, and that might doom his ability to ever ascend to the Presidency.

However, I put him on the short list for a cabinet position if Mitt Romney wins. That might actually be a more important position that would be a better use of his abilities and experience. How does Secretary of State Huntsman sound?

When the Expected Occurs and Surprises Everyone

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucuses by 8 votes, well kind of. One week later, he won a decisive double-digit victory in his 'practically home state' of New Hampshire. He thus became the first Republican non-incumbent to win both of these first two votes.

While Romney winning Iowa would have been considered a surprise a month ago, he had led all polls recently and having a narrow at best win over streaking Rick Santorum hardly seems like a defining moment. How different would the outcome have been considered if a doze votes went to Santorum and Romeny finished second? After a win in Iowa, Romney's margin of victory in New Hampshire was on the low side of expectations.

So, despite these less than overwhelming performances, Mitt Romney now appears to be a South Carolina win away from being ushered in as the Republican candidate to face President Obama in November's Presidential election. If recent polls showing Romney leading by a comfortable margin are even close to correct, that is pretty much what will happen. Even though Ron Paul will probably stay in the race and despite Newt Gingrich wanting to give Mitt Romney a payback for the negative ads in Iowa, this campaign is very close to being over.

Whereas the 2008 Democratic Campaign went pretty much to the end, the 2012 Republican Primary season may not be in doubt come Groundhog's Day. If that occurs, we will review the implications of a quick decision on a nominee and how it will impact the Fall campaign.

He Who is Last Shall Be First, Almost

The long-awaited and long-written-about Iowa Caucuses are over and they produced the closest and perhaps most confusing result in their history. After all the votes were counted once, Mitt Romney edged out Rick Santorum by just 8 votes. There are no recounts in the Iowa Caucues because, well, precision isn't really that important. The Iowa Caucuses votes are only the start to a multi-tiered process that determines the delegates to the Republican National Convention. Even then, they are allowed to vote for whomever they chose.

But a win is a win and for the longest time during the campaign, it didn't seem like there was any way that Mitt Romney would be the top vote-getter in Iowa. From Palin to Trump to Bachmann to Perry to Cain to Gingrich to Paul, there has always been someone else who it appeared would be the winner of Iowa. So winning the Iowa Caucuses, going 'home' to New Hampshire where Romney has a big lead in polls and having by far the largest success in fund-raising would normally be the ingredients to an early decision in a primary campaign.

Not so fast. Those 8 votes were an important divider between first and second, but perception is everything. Coming in second after spending most of the pre-caucus time battling Stan Hunstman for last place among those being allowed into the debates, was none other than former Pennsylvania Senator, Rick Santorum. How on earth did that happen? I mean, as late as mid-December, you could have gotten tremendous odds predicting that Santorum would finish in the top 2 in Iowa. This is the same Rick Santorum who lost his Senate seat in 2006 to Bob Casey, Jr. by 18%, the largest loss for a standing US Senator in history. What change in gravitational forces and metaphysical dynamics commenced over the holidays that made Rick Santorum the hottest candidate on the Republican campaign trail?

As the biblical reference in the title, "he who is last shall be first". Each of the other Republican candidates or almost-candidates mentioned above who were leading in Iowa polls at some point did get to spend some time in the middle of the circular firing squad of Republican candidates and have all of their statements and former misdeeds given substantial media time and space. Many candidates have looked good on the surface, but once the hood was raised and tires kicked...well, not so much.

However, as almost every other candidate (save Jon Huntsman) got their turn at the top of the heap only to fall down and break their chance at winning the crown, there were very few Not-the-Romneys remaining. Newt Gingrich was the last candidate to have a meteoric ascension to the top of the Iowa poll. After a few weeks in that position as people had more of a chance to hear Newt speak outside of debates, the entire state of Iowa proclaimed, "Oh, THAT Newt Gingrich!" and his ratings tumbled.

The loyal Not-the-Romney supporters looked into the bullpen of relief candidates, looked sensible, intelligent, experienced Jon Huntsman in the eye, looked away and said, "Rick Santorum, you are our man!". But with the shortness of time and impending holidays, the other candidates and the media didn't have much opportunity to let potential voters know why Santorum belonged with the other former Not-the-Romneys. So in this case, being the last Republican candidate before Iowa to win the favor of the more conservative Republican voters was a winning (or almost winning) strategy.

What happens from here? Well, that is one reason why political campaigns are fun, at least from the outside. Nobody knows for certain what will happen. It is most likely that Mitt Romney will win big in New Hampshire next Tuesday, Jan 10th. However, it will be more interesting to see how large the gap will be, who will be second, and if Santorum isn't second, how far down he finishes. Campaigning is still a money and organization game. Romney has both, Paul has both, Perry has money. Rick Santorum is going to have to get a lot of money and organization in South Carolina and Florida in a hurry if his Iowa showing is to become more than a political footnote.