A Bounce in Zero Gravity

The Conventions are over. we know what the pundits think, but what does the American voter think?

Some national polls released in the last 2 days seem to indicate that not only has McCain-Palin recovered from the Obama-Biden Convention bounce, but may actually be in the lead. Trying to look at this from as non-partisan a view as possible, that outcome is somewhat difficult to comprehend. For instance, the USA Today/Gallup Poll released today has McCain ahead of Obama 50% to 46% among registered voters and a stunning 54% to 44% among likely voters.

People may have different opinions about which Convention was better, which Presidential or VP candidate gave a better speech, but it would be challenging for anyone to claim that one was so substantially better than the other that it could create an 18 point swing (from Obama up by 8 to McCain up by 10). My favorite poll result shows that when asked "Who would do better handling the Economy?", John McCain has narrowed the gap from a 19 point Obama lead to just a 3 point lead. This change despite there not being any specific economic plans discussed or even mentioned during the Republican convention. That is a lot of changed opinions just from the often repeated statement that Obama will raise taxes and McCain will cut them (despite the analysis of their plans showing a lot more similarity than difference).

A few things contributing to such a big swing:
- not much time for the Dem bounce to keep bouncing with back to back conventions (Repubs seem to be winning the timing game)
- Palin Pandemonium - probably the biggest energizer of the convention (great timing event number 2)
- some questionable demographic assumptions in the Polls just announced (Dem-Rep registration ratio, income breakdown, Male-Female split, etc.)

It isn't worth spending much time on this analysis for 2 reasons:
- polls a week or two weeks from now may look very different as the Conventions fade in memory
- we don't elect presidents based on a national vote (ask Al Gore)

We'll wait until we start getting some post convention state polls until we start analyzing how this race is likely to turn out. I think the message for today is that the race isn't over yet, nor will it be over anytime soon.