May the Voting Begin!

Monday, September 22nd marks the opening of voting in 3 states, Georgia, Kentucky and Virginia. The first debate isn't until this Friday, September 26th. I think you'd have to be pretty confident that there was nothing that could possibly change your mind in order to vote before even the first debate. The outcomes in Georgia and Kentucky are pretty certain, but Virginia is a toss-up at this point.

According to USA Today, 34 states plus DC allow for voting prior to Election Day. That does add a wrinkle to 'Getting Out the Vote'. Early voting has been a growing trend and some states will experience 25-50% of their total votes being cast early. I would be interested in seeing how the 2 campaigns have modified traditional ground games to deal with that many votes being cast in advance of Election Day. If you find a good source, send it to me.

Polls seem to be indicating that the 2 candidates are approximately back to where they were prior to the 2 conventions. The so-called 'beauty contest' of national polls shows Obama with anywhere from a 1 to 7 point lead. The counts of probably electoral votes shows Obama a little ahead. The biggest difference is that McCain has a slight increase in the expected number of electoral votes and Obama has fewer states where his is at least 5% ahead. A great place to see this is at Electoral-vote.com.

By the way, the particular way the states are awarded and the total electoral vote count for today 9/22/2008 at electoral-vote.com is my prediction for how this race will finish (273-265 Obama)

Polls the remainder of this week will continue to see the fading of any effects from the conventions. We will have to wait until some time next week to see the impact of the first debate.