What to Look for in the First Debate

Round 1 of the 3 presidential Debates is this Friday, September 26th being broadcast on many channels. I have seen estimates that as many as 100 million people could watch this first debate, although I find that estimate a bit over the top, but we will see. That viewership in the US would put it somewhere between the M*A*S*H Finale in 1983 (105.9 Million) and Super Bowl XLII earlier this year (97.5 Million)

The most important thing to understand about Presidential Debates are that they aren't really debates, at least not in terms of how someone wins. Most debates under any of the regularly recognized formats are decided based on who presents the most convincing arguments. Presidential debates usually provide a "winner's boost" to the campaign of the candidate who seems the most presidential, almost regardless of the quality of arguments.

It is on this basis that I believe Barack Obama will be highly challenged to come away with a decisive win. In most classic debating styles with formal judges, Obama would probably clean McCain's clock. But his greatest strength in those types of debates could be his Achilles Heel in the Presidential Debates. He needs to be direct, brief, confident and relaxed. His tendency to become too wordy and wonky will not play well to a national audience. McCain is unlikely to succumb to wordiness. McCain's biggest threat is to make a verbal blunder, but in reality, those have not happened too often in Presidential Debates, which is why we remember so well Gerry Ford's Freeing of Eastern Europe, George Bush's watch checking and Al Gore's ominous sighs. McCain can come off more folksy than Obama in a setting like this and that often plays very well.

McCain will have the advantage that the debate is on International issues although don't be surprised if someone the topic of the recent Financial Fallout in the US creeps into proceedings.

Obama needs to channel one of two great Presidential debaters who convinced the viewing public that they were solid enough to become president. Ronald Reagan gave many voters a reason to vote for him just because he stood his ground in the last debate. Bill Clinton (with help from George Bush's watch), won the election in the Town Hall-style debate when he left the podium and walked toward the audience and spoke TO THEM. Even viewers felt like he was talking to them, rather than debating, and that probably sealed the deal.