All Over But the Crying

But who will be doing the crying?

After 6 weeks of nothing but Pennsylvania, voters from the Keystone State are about to answer the questions everyone has been asking during that time. Who will win (most people, even Barack Obama are pretty sure it will be Hillary Clinton)? What will the spread be (that sounds more like betting on a football game, but that really is the more important of the 2 questions.

Most polls have the expected spread at about 5-6%. So a result in that range is pretty much expected. If the gap is less than that, most people will take that as the beginning of the end of Hillary Clinton's run for the nomination. (Or should that be the final beginning of the end...or the beginning of the final end... or maybe...)

Since Hillary Clinton started with such a large lead in the polls (up to 20 points), even if she wins by 7-9%, I think it will still be almost a non-event in terms of how it effects the nomination race.

However, if this becomes a double digit gap, one thing would be pretty much guaranteed...the Democratic campaign will go all the way to the Denver Convention. It is the one thing that Obama people are really worried about on Earth Day, because the implications are pretty certain, even if the likelihood is anyone's guess.

At play in determining the outcome:

- 300,00 to 400,000 increase in Democratic registration, with perhaps as much as 65% of those being partial to Obama. The question is whether this increase in registration has been reflected in the way the polling services have conducted their surveys and calculated their results.

- Most polls have had very high Undecided numbers, rising up to even 15% in polls in the week leading up to the Pennsylvania primary. It seems that a very high percentage of these "undecided" voters are likely to break for Hillary Clinton because she is more of a known quantity or they really have already been planning to vote for Clinton, but just weren't confident or comfortable enough about it to provide that answer to pollsters.

- The second hour of last week's debate was by most accounts a distinct victory for Hillary Clinton when the discussion got around to the actual issues. There is some question about how many viewers stayed tuned in after almost an hour of so-called "gotcha" questions. However, Philadelphia was one of only 4 cities in the US where the debate outdrew American Idol in that timeslot. If a lot of undecided and leaning voters in the greater Philadelphia area tuned in, that could be bad news for the Obama campaign.

- The Obama Campaign is perhaps the most well-organized in US primary history. They could have a 1-2% impact on the actual vote.

So here is my guess...8-10% gap for Clinton. Enough to keep things going, but not enough to have an impact on future primaries, superdelegate leanings or fundraising.

Same as it ever was.

Pennsylvania is A-Polling

Half of April's days leading up the Pennsylvania Primary have elapsed and one thing is certain: The polls are very uncertain how this will turn out.

Almost all polls have Hillary Clinton leading, but by how much is the question of the day.

Two polls concluding on April 7th highlight this. Rasmussen has Clinton up by only 5 points (48-43) but Survey USA has Clinton up by 18! (56-38). Er, at least one of them is way off the mark. The Rasmussen survey had 9% Undecided, which was their first PA Poll with an undecided amount in just single digits. About half of the polls done in the last month by a variety of companies have had undecided numbers in double digits. There have been 4.5 weeks of very heavy campaigning and advertising in PA and more than 10% of registered Democrats still aren't sure who they will vote for? By contrast, a bordering and somewhat similar state, Ohio, only had a few polls in the month leading up to their primary with such high levels of undecideds.

Are there really that many Dems in the Keystone State who aren't sure yet who they are voting for or are there just a lot of people who don't feel comfortable telling a pollster their choice? If the latter is the case, which candidate is more likely to have the support of these "undecided" poll respondents? I would look at the candidate with the larger Negative opinion numbers. There are a lot of silent Hillary supporters in PA. Not wanting to attract the ire of the more vocal Obama supporters and have to defend their support of Hillary. They are most likely reserving the declaration of their preference for the quiet and privacy of the voting booth. My guess is PA goes by about the same gap as Ohio, 10%.

That probably only means a 20 delegate pickup for Hillary, but I think she stopped playing the pledged delegate game a long time ago. She is hoping to win 6 or 7 of the last 10 primaries and use that momentum to convince the Superdelegates that she is the one to support.

Like an expected Fed Rate cut, I believe that a Hillary win by 7-12% is effectively already worked into public and media opinions. If the gap winds up being much lower or higher, then that would be a big problem for the candidate on the wrong side of that outcome.

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

I told you that 6 weeks was a long time between primaries and now that we are at the half way point, this past week has shown idleness roust the chorus of “Should Hillary Quit?” from many corners of the journalistic spectrum. Why? They are bored and want to get on with the general election. Some leading members of the Democratic Party (All Obama Supporters) have started saying once again that Hillary should drop out. I’m not sure what they are afraid of.

Here is a Top 10 list for why Hillary Clinton should stay in the race:

#10 – It is a race. You don’t drop out. You run through the finish line. (Yes, I used to be a Track Coach, why do you ask?)

#9 - The first serious contender to be a nominee for President should still be a candidate at the convention.

#8 - How else would the majority of Americans learn about Superdelegates?

#7 - Pennsylvania, Guam, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.

#6 - Nobody has won yet.

#5 - Republicans deserve to think they have a chance to win, at least for a while.

#4 - If Obama was only 150 delegates behind at this point, would many people be suggesting that he should drop out?

#3 - Puerto Rico moved their primary up 6 days to Sunday, June 1^st in anticipation of an enormous turnout. Nobody should rain on their parade.

#2 – Saturday Night Live needs more time to find a good Obama impersonator (perhaps this guy).

#1 - Americans love a great fight, and even if the Democratic Party feels split at the convention, makeup s*x is always great.