Before we go too far into analysis on how the general election will play out in November, we need to return to the basics. The popular vote really isn't all that good an indicator of what will happen.
That is why sites like www.electoral-vote.com are so interesting. Taking a look today, May 27th, shows that Barack Obama is ahead of John McCain (266 to 248) but doesn't quite have enough to win, with 24 electoral votes fully up for grabs. This reflects the close race that most political headlines refer to. However, if you click on the link to see how Hillary Clinton would fare against John McCain, it may take a few seconds to put the numbers in focus. The polls would have HIllary Clinton ahead in the electoral vote race by a whopping 133 votes, 327 to 194 with Michigan's 17 electoral votes up for grabs. There is no way to look at these numbers and not be stunned. While there are some ways to explain why the difference might be more pronounced than would occur if those votes were actually taken today, it is just too big to explain away. Some of the state results are just bizarre. Obama beat Clinton by 14 points in the North Carolina primary, but Clinton beats McCain by 6 points and McCain beats Obama by 8 points. You can say that Clinton supporters in NC just are not (yet) ready to support Obama and would vote for McCain instead, but still, how does Hillary Clinton beat McCain in a traditionally Republican state, (at least for the last 20 years).
You know all that stuff Clinton's campaign has been saying about her being more electable, that is just sour grapes, right? Right? There can't be any substance to it, can there be? How strange is it that the candidate who is on the wrong side of the delegate totals and who many have suggested drop out is actually performing substantially better on state polls. While these polls are just snapshots and a lot will happen between now and November, you still just have to look at these numbers and say, "Wow". The next time you hear the Clinton campaign say something about "electability", remember the numbers on this website and try to see the world through their eyes, at least for a moment.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Vice-Presidents for Hire
For a moment, let's pretend that we are in the general election phase and it is down to John McCain and Barack Obama. Who will (or rather who should) they pick to be their running mates?
Let's start with Barack. Even though his choice has received the most attention and probably will continue to do so, it may have the lesser impact of the 2 selections. Let's start with the first name on everyone's mind...Hillary Clinton. If he chose Hillary to be his running mate, I believe it would be game, set and match. The only areas that John McCain can move are in making Obama out to be inexperienced, elitist and soft on international affairs. Hillary on the ticket wipes out 2 of them and softens the third. It also eliminates women and many white male Democrats from switching which lever they pull in November. It would be over. The election...and Barack Obama's ability to lead as President would both be over. True, there have been 'odd couples' as running mates such as JFK and LBJ (at least they were both known by their 3 initials) and Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush ('Voodoo Economics' anyone). I actually think that Barack and Hilarry could figure out a way to co-exist in a workable situation. I just don't think Bill Clinton would fit in an Obama presidency (or any other person's presidency with the possible exception of Hillary). Obama's best choice is someone who either pulls in Clinton supporters like Evan Bayh of neighboring Indiana, or shore up his military credentials by choosing someone with major cred, like Wesley Clark.
John McCain invited a few VP candidates to visit with him over the Memorial Day weekend. Although Charlie Crist of Florida will get a lot of attention because of his possible ability to land the battleground state. However, there was one name the this time really jumped out when I heard it in contrast with the others. Mitt Romney is young, conservative and has the ability to win or at least cause significant battles in several New England states that Democrats normally think are a lock. I don't think John McCain has a lot of places to go to get an edge on his Democratic opponent, but I think Romney has the most potential to give him a shot. At least it will spread the Democratic ticket thin trying to hold onto some of its base electoral votes and give McCain a chance to lock down Florida, Ohio and Michigan.
In reality, most of the action and excitement about the VP mates are before they are selected. They can be a much bigger problem than they can be a big help.
Let's start with Barack. Even though his choice has received the most attention and probably will continue to do so, it may have the lesser impact of the 2 selections. Let's start with the first name on everyone's mind...Hillary Clinton. If he chose Hillary to be his running mate, I believe it would be game, set and match. The only areas that John McCain can move are in making Obama out to be inexperienced, elitist and soft on international affairs. Hillary on the ticket wipes out 2 of them and softens the third. It also eliminates women and many white male Democrats from switching which lever they pull in November. It would be over. The election...and Barack Obama's ability to lead as President would both be over. True, there have been 'odd couples' as running mates such as JFK and LBJ (at least they were both known by their 3 initials) and Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush ('Voodoo Economics' anyone). I actually think that Barack and Hilarry could figure out a way to co-exist in a workable situation. I just don't think Bill Clinton would fit in an Obama presidency (or any other person's presidency with the possible exception of Hillary). Obama's best choice is someone who either pulls in Clinton supporters like Evan Bayh of neighboring Indiana, or shore up his military credentials by choosing someone with major cred, like Wesley Clark.
John McCain invited a few VP candidates to visit with him over the Memorial Day weekend. Although Charlie Crist of Florida will get a lot of attention because of his possible ability to land the battleground state. However, there was one name the this time really jumped out when I heard it in contrast with the others. Mitt Romney is young, conservative and has the ability to win or at least cause significant battles in several New England states that Democrats normally think are a lock. I don't think John McCain has a lot of places to go to get an edge on his Democratic opponent, but I think Romney has the most potential to give him a shot. At least it will spread the Democratic ticket thin trying to hold onto some of its base electoral votes and give McCain a chance to lock down Florida, Ohio and Michigan.
In reality, most of the action and excitement about the VP mates are before they are selected. They can be a much bigger problem than they can be a big help.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Where Art Thou Headed Hillary?
I have already stated more than once that Hillary will not drop out of the race before the final primaries on June 3rd. Actually, she will never drop out, she will just not receive more delegate votes at the convention than Barack Obama. She knows this is the most likely outcome, she just can't say it (who would give money to a candidate who admits they probably won't win?).
So part of her reason for going forward in the way she is doing could be to keep the money flowing, although she still is probably spending it a bit faster than she can raise it, so this isn't really a financially motivated decision.
As Americans, we like people to bow out gracefully when they can't win, and yet we admire those who just won't quit. (I don't know why the rest of the world thinks Americans are a bit odd.)
So what is Hillary's game plan at this point?
Does she really think she can win? (Yes, but she realizes what would need to happen and it isn't pretty)
Is she posturing for a VP nod from Barack (maybe - more later)
Is she prepping for her next run for the Presidential nomination? (almost certainly, but this is not the dominant reason)
Is she just showing that as a non-quitter, she needs to be given everyone's respect? (I think a you betcha is appropriate here)
Is she positioning herself to be in line for Speaker of the House someday? (maybe, but that isn't plan #1 either)
So what is it? It really is very simple. When you are in a race, you run as hard as you can as long as you can and then see what happens. It is really a little bit of all of the above, but from where she is, there really is only one place to go and that is onward.
I struggled trying to recall a single candidate who dropped out of a presidential nomination race and later went on to bigger political accomplishments prior to this year. However, both Ronald Reagan in 1976 and George Bush in 1980 either pushed the eventual party nominee to the brink (Ford beat Reagan 1,187 to 1,070) or lambasted them during the primary season (Bush coined "Voodoo Economics", but still wound up being the VP choice). The exceptions are those who later became their party's nominee. Al Gore and Bob Dole both fall into this category and both eventually lost in the general election. John McCain also withdrew from the 2000 presidential nomination race and is his party's (presumptive) nominee. The precedent does not bode well for him.
So part of her reason for going forward in the way she is doing could be to keep the money flowing, although she still is probably spending it a bit faster than she can raise it, so this isn't really a financially motivated decision.
As Americans, we like people to bow out gracefully when they can't win, and yet we admire those who just won't quit. (I don't know why the rest of the world thinks Americans are a bit odd.)
So what is Hillary's game plan at this point?
Does she really think she can win? (Yes, but she realizes what would need to happen and it isn't pretty)
Is she posturing for a VP nod from Barack (maybe - more later)
Is she prepping for her next run for the Presidential nomination? (almost certainly, but this is not the dominant reason)
Is she just showing that as a non-quitter, she needs to be given everyone's respect? (I think a you betcha is appropriate here)
Is she positioning herself to be in line for Speaker of the House someday? (maybe, but that isn't plan #1 either)
So what is it? It really is very simple. When you are in a race, you run as hard as you can as long as you can and then see what happens. It is really a little bit of all of the above, but from where she is, there really is only one place to go and that is onward.
I struggled trying to recall a single candidate who dropped out of a presidential nomination race and later went on to bigger political accomplishments prior to this year. However, both Ronald Reagan in 1976 and George Bush in 1980 either pushed the eventual party nominee to the brink (Ford beat Reagan 1,187 to 1,070) or lambasted them during the primary season (Bush coined "Voodoo Economics", but still wound up being the VP choice). The exceptions are those who later became their party's nominee. Al Gore and Bob Dole both fall into this category and both eventually lost in the general election. John McCain also withdrew from the 2000 presidential nomination race and is his party's (presumptive) nominee. The precedent does not bode well for him.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
North Carolina and Indiana Recap
Quick recap from May 6th primaries:
Almost spot on for North Carolina. We had Obama correct at 56%, somehow 2% voted for neither and that made the spread 14% instead of my predicted 12%. Polls underrepresented the African American vote again.
Indiana - surprised. Everything seemed to indicate it was becoming more like PA and OH, but in reality, it was much more like the state bordering on Illinois. How much anxiety went through the Clinton campaign late into the night with those ridiculously late returns from Lake County in the NW corner of the state? Were you thinking that Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's ghost was alive and well?
The result is that the delegate math gets almost impossible for Clinton and more superdelegates feel safe jumping on the Obama bandwagon. This is not even to mention the talking heads and Dem Party leaders who just want this thing over so they don't have to buy more Alka Seltzer. Too bad that according to a recent poll, 55% of Dem voters and indys leaning Dem WANT Clinton to stay in the race through the primaries. Only 25% wanted her to drop out. She will oblige the majority.
Almost spot on for North Carolina. We had Obama correct at 56%, somehow 2% voted for neither and that made the spread 14% instead of my predicted 12%. Polls underrepresented the African American vote again.
Indiana - surprised. Everything seemed to indicate it was becoming more like PA and OH, but in reality, it was much more like the state bordering on Illinois. How much anxiety went through the Clinton campaign late into the night with those ridiculously late returns from Lake County in the NW corner of the state? Were you thinking that Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's ghost was alive and well?
The result is that the delegate math gets almost impossible for Clinton and more superdelegates feel safe jumping on the Obama bandwagon. This is not even to mention the talking heads and Dem Party leaders who just want this thing over so they don't have to buy more Alka Seltzer. Too bad that according to a recent poll, 55% of Dem voters and indys leaning Dem WANT Clinton to stay in the race through the primaries. Only 25% wanted her to drop out. She will oblige the majority.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Indiana & North Carolina - Call Them!
Indiana - Clinton 54, Obama 46
North Carolina - Obama 56, Clinton 44
I think the undecided continues to break a little more for Clinton than Obama in Indiana stretching the gap a little more than most polls (Zogby with Obama ahead being the exception). I think most polls are underestimating African American turnout in NC and the spread will be a bit bigger there for Obama.
Wins can be claimed by both camps in this virtual stalemate. But time is running out for Clinton.
Expect Obama's camp and the DNC to put massive pressure on the superdelegates in the next 7 days to declare (read: support Obama). The main reason is that next Tuesday, May 13th does not appear that it will be a good day for Obama with the chance that Clinton gets a big win in West Virginia. One week later on May 20th, there is at best a draw with Clinton winning big in Kentucky and Obama winning by a smaller margin in Oregon. The fear is that if Clinton wins in Oregon, and Puerto Rico coming up 10 days later, that will be several weeks of good news bulding up the Clinton campaign.
So look for a lot of emphasis on Obama's clear victory in North Carolina and news and commentary about Clinton not having the mathematical ability to overtake Obama in pledged delegates.
Clinton will not drop out. Even if she were to lose Indiana, she would not drop out. Even with money problems and a loss in Indiana, she would still almost certain cruise to victories in 3 of the next 4 primaries.
This is a good thing. As much has been made about some Democrats (young and African Americans in particular) being outraged if party officials (superdelegates) gave the nomination to Clinton even if Obama had the most pledged delegates, the noise would be even louder if party officials coerced the 1st woman with a significant chance to be her party's nominee drop out before the end of the primary season.
This game will play out to the end, everyone will have a chance to vote for their choice, the superdelegates will roughly split from this point forward and Obama will be the nominee. Democrats can then get back at pointing their venom at Republicans rather than one another.
Let the game continue!
North Carolina - Obama 56, Clinton 44
I think the undecided continues to break a little more for Clinton than Obama in Indiana stretching the gap a little more than most polls (Zogby with Obama ahead being the exception). I think most polls are underestimating African American turnout in NC and the spread will be a bit bigger there for Obama.
Wins can be claimed by both camps in this virtual stalemate. But time is running out for Clinton.
Expect Obama's camp and the DNC to put massive pressure on the superdelegates in the next 7 days to declare (read: support Obama). The main reason is that next Tuesday, May 13th does not appear that it will be a good day for Obama with the chance that Clinton gets a big win in West Virginia. One week later on May 20th, there is at best a draw with Clinton winning big in Kentucky and Obama winning by a smaller margin in Oregon. The fear is that if Clinton wins in Oregon, and Puerto Rico coming up 10 days later, that will be several weeks of good news bulding up the Clinton campaign.
So look for a lot of emphasis on Obama's clear victory in North Carolina and news and commentary about Clinton not having the mathematical ability to overtake Obama in pledged delegates.
Clinton will not drop out. Even if she were to lose Indiana, she would not drop out. Even with money problems and a loss in Indiana, she would still almost certain cruise to victories in 3 of the next 4 primaries.
This is a good thing. As much has been made about some Democrats (young and African Americans in particular) being outraged if party officials (superdelegates) gave the nomination to Clinton even if Obama had the most pledged delegates, the noise would be even louder if party officials coerced the 1st woman with a significant chance to be her party's nominee drop out before the end of the primary season.
This game will play out to the end, everyone will have a chance to vote for their choice, the superdelegates will roughly split from this point forward and Obama will be the nominee. Democrats can then get back at pointing their venom at Republicans rather than one another.
Let the game continue!
Sunday, May 4, 2008
So What Do We Know Now?
Hilary Clinton winds up winning Pennsylvania by 10 % (or 9.2% depending upon which website you go to). You could have read it here first and gotten an early bedtime on the 21st. So what do we know?
The polls were kind of right, at least if you knew how to read them. Hillary Clinton is getting a very large portion of the "Undecided" voters. I made the point that one or two weeks out, there really aren't that many people who are truly undecided. Even if the say they are and think they are, they may not realize that they probably are Clinton supporters and don't come to terms with it until they are in the voting booth. Obama supporters generally know it and let everyone else know it.
There is no question that Obama's momentum has shrunk to a drip. The question is whether he has enough to finish. Actually, even if he just keeps moving forward, he will have enough to win the Democratic nomination. He actually just needs to not implode. Unfortunately, that isn't obvious at this point which is why even as a few superdelegates have declared for him in the last 2 weeks, there are still a few hundred waiting on the sidelines.
What do Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and several other senior members of the DNC have in common? They want the Democratic Primary Season to be over. However, it appears that the American public is generally content to let every state and a few places that don't get to vote in the general election (Guam and Puerto Rico) have their say before a final decision is made. Interesting that the American public is more patient than the people in leadership and 'expert' roles. Although it is tough to surpass Howard Dean's comedic statements on the superdelegates, Tim Russert has done just that on several occasions. My favorite was on the night of the Pennsylvania primary. He was almost incredulous that the Clinton campaign would hope that the superdelegates would believe Obama is not going to be able to win the general election and throw their support behind Clinton.
Errrr, that is exactly why the superdelegates exist in the first place. You can agree or disagree with their existence in this and future nomination processes, but they were created leading up to the 1984 Presidential Election for the specific purpose of making sure the party put forward a candidate most capable of winning the White House. In that year, although the pledged delegate count slightly favored Part favorite Walter Mondale over Gary Hart, almost all superdelegates threw their support to Walter Mondale (who promptly got annihilated by Ronald Reagan in the general election - something about telling the truth about taxes that the American public didn't want to hear). If Gary Hart had wound up with slightly more pledged delegates than Walter Mondale, Mondale still would have won the nomination, because most superdelegates still considered him to have the best chance to beat Reagan.
If Hillary Clinton finishes the primary season about 100 delegates behind Barack Obama, it would not be dramatically different than the scenario considered by the DNC when they created superdelegates in the first place. Even after winning a majority of the pledged delegates, (and he will) Barack Obama could be considered to have too much baggage (read Reverend Jeremiah Wright) and the superdelegates could decide that Hillary Clinton has the best chance to grab 270 electoral votes in November.
That is the theory and that is the reason why both candidates will remain in the hunt through the final primary in early June.
So what will happen? Well, if you want to move to a remote island or not pay attention to any news reports over the next 6 months, here is a capsule:
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will roughly split the remaining pledged delegates in the upcoming primaries (Clinton probably gets about 20 delegates closer)
The remaining undeclared superdelegates roughly split between Obama and Clinton.
At the convention, Obama wins by about 150 delegates. My guess is Virginia puts him over the top in the roll call vote.
Everyone hugs and kisses and makes up.
The Republicans (but not McCain) attack Obama's controversial weak points (Rev. Wright, patriotism, etc.) and McCain hits on Obama's lack of experience.
The American public considers it all old news (yes Barack, you can thank Hilary for defusing all these potential bombs during the primaries) and doesn't pay much attention to it. The just want jobs and the belief that gas prices will decline in the future.
Obama takes 290 electoral votes in November. The electoral map becomes a bit more purple as some red states vote for Obama and some Blue states vote for McCain. This is not a bad thing.
Remember that you read it first here.
The polls were kind of right, at least if you knew how to read them. Hillary Clinton is getting a very large portion of the "Undecided" voters. I made the point that one or two weeks out, there really aren't that many people who are truly undecided. Even if the say they are and think they are, they may not realize that they probably are Clinton supporters and don't come to terms with it until they are in the voting booth. Obama supporters generally know it and let everyone else know it.
There is no question that Obama's momentum has shrunk to a drip. The question is whether he has enough to finish. Actually, even if he just keeps moving forward, he will have enough to win the Democratic nomination. He actually just needs to not implode. Unfortunately, that isn't obvious at this point which is why even as a few superdelegates have declared for him in the last 2 weeks, there are still a few hundred waiting on the sidelines.
What do Chris Matthews, Tim Russert, Nancy Pelosi, Howard Dean and several other senior members of the DNC have in common? They want the Democratic Primary Season to be over. However, it appears that the American public is generally content to let every state and a few places that don't get to vote in the general election (Guam and Puerto Rico) have their say before a final decision is made. Interesting that the American public is more patient than the people in leadership and 'expert' roles. Although it is tough to surpass Howard Dean's comedic statements on the superdelegates, Tim Russert has done just that on several occasions. My favorite was on the night of the Pennsylvania primary. He was almost incredulous that the Clinton campaign would hope that the superdelegates would believe Obama is not going to be able to win the general election and throw their support behind Clinton.
Errrr, that is exactly why the superdelegates exist in the first place. You can agree or disagree with their existence in this and future nomination processes, but they were created leading up to the 1984 Presidential Election for the specific purpose of making sure the party put forward a candidate most capable of winning the White House. In that year, although the pledged delegate count slightly favored Part favorite Walter Mondale over Gary Hart, almost all superdelegates threw their support to Walter Mondale (who promptly got annihilated by Ronald Reagan in the general election - something about telling the truth about taxes that the American public didn't want to hear). If Gary Hart had wound up with slightly more pledged delegates than Walter Mondale, Mondale still would have won the nomination, because most superdelegates still considered him to have the best chance to beat Reagan.
If Hillary Clinton finishes the primary season about 100 delegates behind Barack Obama, it would not be dramatically different than the scenario considered by the DNC when they created superdelegates in the first place. Even after winning a majority of the pledged delegates, (and he will) Barack Obama could be considered to have too much baggage (read Reverend Jeremiah Wright) and the superdelegates could decide that Hillary Clinton has the best chance to grab 270 electoral votes in November.
That is the theory and that is the reason why both candidates will remain in the hunt through the final primary in early June.
So what will happen? Well, if you want to move to a remote island or not pay attention to any news reports over the next 6 months, here is a capsule:
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will roughly split the remaining pledged delegates in the upcoming primaries (Clinton probably gets about 20 delegates closer)
The remaining undeclared superdelegates roughly split between Obama and Clinton.
At the convention, Obama wins by about 150 delegates. My guess is Virginia puts him over the top in the roll call vote.
Everyone hugs and kisses and makes up.
The Republicans (but not McCain) attack Obama's controversial weak points (Rev. Wright, patriotism, etc.) and McCain hits on Obama's lack of experience.
The American public considers it all old news (yes Barack, you can thank Hilary for defusing all these potential bombs during the primaries) and doesn't pay much attention to it. The just want jobs and the belief that gas prices will decline in the future.
Obama takes 290 electoral votes in November. The electoral map becomes a bit more purple as some red states vote for Obama and some Blue states vote for McCain. This is not a bad thing.
Remember that you read it first here.
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