What's the Difference Between Sarah Palin and a Turkey?

Well, I will let the reader come up with at least dozen punchlines to that setup, but the following video shows you that plenty of times, life is just funnier than anything that script writers can come up with.

This isn't as graphic as some media outlets have indicated, but be forewarned that it is real.


Oh, and to those who appreciate Political Comedy, Sarah Palin is the gift that keeps on giving.

Either Sarah intentionally had them set up that shot with the Turkey Handling Area in the right side of the picture, she was oblivious to it, or she just didn't care. Take your pick, but any way you slice it, Sarah Palin is not like most politicians, at least not those from the Lower 48.

Humor and the Obama White House

I've been a political junkie for many years, but a comedy fanatic for a lot longer, so when the two intersect, well, it's Miller Time.

So the biggest question on my mind is, what will be the focus of comedy during the Obama years? Despite Fred Armisen's attempts, Barack Obama is unlikely to provide a lot of good comedic material. Jay Leno (soon to be Conan O'Brien) and David Lettermen will try their best, but it will be tough with a President who basically is pretty boring (and we should all be thankful for that).

However, last Saturday, I think I saw what Saturday Night Live will plan to focus on for the next 4 years. If the top of the ticket isn't a good candidate for a caricature, go to the Veep. Although Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle and even Spiro Agnew had plenty of jokes pointed their way, Vice Presidents really haven't been the focus of comedy skits. Until now.


If Hillary Clinton does get named as Secretary of State, (and Amy Poehler is available), that provides another big cache of material.


Odds are that at some point, Tina Fey reprises her role as Sarah Palin, because there is no doubt that Sarah will wind up surfacing from time to time. Just today, on a local radio station, I heard Sarah Palin referred to as the 'Paris Hilton of Politics' because she keeps popping back into our consciousness. Who knows, Tina and Amy might be doing the Presidential Debate skits in 2016.

If Hillary is in the Cabinet, well, Darrell Hammond may wind up staying on the SNL staff until he can collect Social Security because Bill Clinton won't be far from the national spotlight and will give comedy writers some good material.

Around the Horn about Clinton as Secretary of State

I have read as many different online opinions as I can find about the concept of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.

They seem to fall into 3 categories:

Bigtime Fans of Obama and/or Clinton - they love it for so many reasons that they aren't seeing any realities. It is the Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama team they had dreamed about.

Clinton or Obama Haters - Nothing is going to make them happy at this point and this is just another opportunity to gripe.

Realists - This is where most of the good insights are coming. Obama is keeping and ally/adversary close and out of the Senate. Bill Clinton's financial dealings will need to be vetted and could wind up closing the door on Hillary's shot at the job. Hillary may prefer staying in the Senate. Even though she is currently the junior senator from NY and not in line for any committee chairs, that will change in time, but only if she stays in the Senate.

Me - I think it happens. Good chance it winds up being a good move for all.

Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State?

Wow.

Apparently (and this is based on a Frankenstein piecing together of info from various media outlets, so all caveats apply) Barack Obama met privately with Hillary Clinton this week and effectively asked her if she were to be offered the position of Secretary of State, would she take it.

Here is a stream of consciousness list of thoughts about it:

Hillary wasn't vetted as VP, but appears to be Obama's first choice for Secretary of State.

How does 4-8 years as Sec of State compare with a probable lifetime job as Senator from NY.

Hillary is a very well known commodity and the American public will generally be pretty comfortable with this.

She is definitely viewed by Republicans as being closer to the Right on International issues than Obama, so they will be fairly supportive of this move.

Secretary of State Clinton is a lot easier to keep in line with the the voice of the administration than Senator Clinton.

Bill Clinton is unlikely to do anything that would intentionally deep six Hillary's position which means he probably stays about as tame as Bill Clinton can be. It also means he might get to travel a bit.

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton would definitely not run for president again. Until perhaps 2016.


On CNN Friday, former Republican speaker of the house, Tom DeLay called Obama's selection of Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff and the potential selection of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State as brilliant. He did then go on to talk about how America would learn how liberal Obama was and what that would do to the economy. (It was a very abrupt change, almost like flipping a switch. That's "The Hammer" for you.)

Word has also surfaced that Obama has also spoken to both New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle. Clinton probably has the right of first refusal and the order of follow-up selection is probably as listed here. If Clinton is not Sec of State, it is because she chooses not to be.

A Palin Retrospective

Politico offers an analysis of the impact of Sarah Palin's addition to the McCain ticket. It identifies 3 ways in which she was supposed to help:

1) Energize the Conservative Base
2) Attract Independents
3) Attract the PUMA group and other Hillary Clinton Supporters

Politico determines that Palin failed on all 3 accounts. The numbers are pretty clear that at best she had a neutral impact on the 2nd and 3rd items, and probably was a negative. Obama won independents by 8% and prior to the Conventions, many polls showed McCain slightly ahead among independents. Obama won women by 13% and if you watched the Vice-Presidential debate on CNN and saw the live voting reactions of undecided men and women, this was not a surprise. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin have the same XX Chromosomes, but that is about where the similarity ends. It might be difficult to find many women who are that far apart in their political views (and even political knowledge). Women weren't buying it and undecideds were perhaps turned off.

The one category I am not so easily convinced about is whether she energized the base. This is an area where the term 'compared to what' comes to mind. Politco stated that "Core Republican turnout declined 1.3 percent compared to four years ago". However, there are 3 important points to consider before drawing conclusions from that fact:

1) Republican registration dropped between 2004 and 2008
2) Almost every poll right before Election Day showed McCain behind by 5-7%.
3) We don't know what Republican turnout for McCain would have been without Palin, only the turnout in 2004.

The drop in Registration alone explains about 50% of the drop in turnout between 2004 and 2008.

A strong indication of defeat often depresses turnout for the underdog party, especially in states that are not battlegrounds and the outcome (one way or another) is almost certain.

Perhaps most importantly, we just don't know what type of turnout John McCain was looking at before he added Sarah Palin to the ticket. Certainly there was not a lot of energy within Conservative circles prior to her selection. If McCain had picked Romney or Pawlenty, would the Conservative base have been as energized? My guess is no. Turnout among Republicans could have been down by a lot more had Palin not been on the ticket.

So that's my take. Palin's impact was that Republican turnout didn't stink as badly as it would have. She was also a great support in McCain's efforts to rebrand himself as part of the Karl Rove school of Republicans which contributed to losing the Independent and Women's vote.

Coming in a future post - What could John McCain have done differently to have a realistic chance to win?

Obama Meets Bush

Barack Obama met with George Bush at the White House on Monday in another step in this transition of power. I had a sense of symmetry as I saw them walking together. Obama's approval rating is about the same as Bush's disapproval rating.

The Sunday talk shows had much speculation on what would be said and asked with many posing that there really wasn't anything that Obama needed to know from Bush. It was widely reported that Obama did wind up encouraging Bush to support a financial bailout of the auto industry with strong requirements that they meet stringent emissions and alternative fuel guidelines in the future. This whole situation is challenging to find the correct side on as the collapse of the US auto industry would result in the loss of 2-3 million jobs. However, a bailout would be like giving your crack addicted friend a pile of cash and driving him to the dealer.

Although we don't know everything that the President and President-Elect spoke about, our friend David Letterman put together his Top 10 list of things that Bush & Obama really talked about:


Item # 3 isn't just funny, it is sadly the reason why we are in such a big mess. When Bush was elected, my biggest concern was that he wasn't a hard worker. I think he outsourced most of his responsibilities to others, particularly Dick Cheney and didn't have an overriding concern about what they did. Barack Obama will have more challenges than perhaps any previous President as they entered office and may or may not have a successful presidency. However, one thing I am not concerned about is that he will be lazy and not hold others accountable for their decisions.

The New Electoral Map

One of the things Barack Obama spoke about early in the Primary Season was his desire to change the Blue & Red status of the Electoral Map over the last few elections. Not only did he change some longtime Reds to Blues, but he even made one state Purple!

There were some states that had been Blue states at some point in the last 4 Presidential Elections, but the Dems had not garnered 50% of the vote which Obama took at least 50%:

New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Ohio
Florida

Some states the Obama didn't win, but still received a higher percentage of the vote than any Democratic candidate in the previous 4 Presidential elections:

Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Georgia
South Carolina
Nebraska

Perhaps most amazingly, won 3 states in which Democrats had not been particularly competitive recently and would not have been thought of as anything but solid red states until last Tuesday:

Virginia
North Carolina
Indiana

Last but not least, the first truly PURPLE state:

Nebraska

as Barack Obama has most probably won the 1st Congressional District surrounding Omaha in a state that he lost by 16% (but did win a higher percentage of the vote than any of the last 4 Democratic Presidential nominees).

Obama won 95% of the African American vote, 67% of the Latino and Asian vote. He took only 43% of the White vote, but that is less of a concern in a country that is becoming even more racially diverse than ever before. Estimates are that Whites will make up less than 50% of the Adult population in the United States by 2016. As people who are more likely to vote Democratic (non-whites, youth, etc.) are moving into urban and suburban centers of battleground states and people who are more likely to vote Republicans concentrate themselves into a dozen or so states that have already been solidly Red States for a long time, Republicans may be painting themselves into a corner that becomes very difficult to overcome.

It is going to take a whole lot more people to move into Kansas and Wyoming thereby increasing the Electoral Vote counts for those states before they can create the foundation of a winning electoral strategy.

Election Night and Prediction Review

I'm spent. Who new that political spectating and blogging was this exhausting. I needed a day to recover and digest everything.

Part of me is proud and amazed that the United States has elected its first person of color as POTUS. Part of me is wondering if Barack Obama has had a moment like Robert Redford did in "The Candidate" at the end after he wins and realizes, Oh my gosh, now what do I do.

First, how did we do on predictions? Go back to our outcome prediction from Monday and you will see we did pretty well. Our electoral vote prediction was Obama 353, McCain 185. We got 49 states and D.C. correct, but missed Obama's 23,000 vote (out of 2.3 Million) win in Indiana. I am particularly proud of the way we called 2 of the toughest states:

The 2 toughest to decide were North Carolina and Missouri, and we split them. My NC outcome is also somewhat based on a high early voting turnout that was more favorable to Obama and rainy weather expected across the state on Election Day. Missouri would lose its bellweather status if it goes for McCain.

Democrats had a huge advantage in early voting turnout and the rain throughout the state on Election Day may just have had enough impact on turnout to keep Obama in the lead. Assuming current vote totals hold, this is the first time in history a Democrat won the election without taking Missouri, which had gone to the winning candidate in 11 straight presidential elections.

Our popular vote projection was Obama 52, McCain 47. It looks like it will wind up being about 52.4% to 46.4%, so again, very close.

Our vote total projection was for 135 Million which would be 65% of age eligible voters. It appears that will wind up being a bit overly optimistic. Although the exact total won't be known for several weeks, there are about 122 Million votes counted so far and probably a few million more absentee and early votes yet to be counted. It will be interesting to do a state by state comparison because some states and nice increases in turnout.

In my Election Day Hour by Hour predictions, we were also pretty close. In fact, we ended with:

At some point, Missouri is eventually declared for McCain making the final total Obama 353, McCain 185

Correctly predicting Missouri would be the last state called and that it would go to McCain. As of 3:30PM Eastern time on Thursday, it is still not officially McCain's, although he leads by almost 6,000 votes.

I thought that Obama would be declared the winner at 10:30PM after Ohio and North Carolina were called. North Carolina wasn't called until today and so it was the block of 4 Democratic states closing at 11PM Eastern time (California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii) that put Obama over the top. In fact, once all the networks had Obama over 200 Electoral votes an hour or so earlier, the knowledge that this foursome with 77 electoral votes was rock solid for Obama meant his ascent past 270 was certain.

Some states that I was surprised were called so early - Pennsylvania, North Dakota. Both were called shortly after polls were closed. I thought North Dakota would be close enough to wait until some votes were tallied. With the significance of Pennsylvania being the only way McCain could get to 270, I would have guessed the networks would have waited a bit, just to make sure (No Florida, No Way), but I guess they had enough data to be confident and didn't want to be outscooped by the other networks.

Other states like Texas and Nebraska, both won my McCain by larger margins than the outcomes in Pennsylvania and North Dakota were listed as too early to call for a lot longer than necessary.

Finally, in our last Soccer Dad Lawn Sign Poll we had Obama 43, McCain 27 raw score, which translates to Obama 61.4%, McCain 38.6%. The actual voting in our county, Delware County, PA was Obama 60.1%, McCain 38.9%. Chalk one up for The Soccer Dads!

It's An Obama-Nation!!!!

There are still more votes to count and electoral votes to award, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.

The official announcement came almost simultaneously from all networks at 11:00 PM Eastern Time as polls closed in California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. There were no attempts to call Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana or Montana before 11AM. In fact, the last 4 were still not called as of 1AM eastern time.

An historic outcome on an historic night.

Lots of days of analysis and highlighting results ahead, but for now, applaud America for overcoming centuries of racial prejudice and electing the first African American president of the United States. A date that will be read about in history books for the remainder of US history.

Election Day 2008 - What to Expect

You can gather together your friends, great refreshments and settle in for a long night watching your HD TV. But unlikely 2000 and 2004, it may not be that long a night before we know how it will end. It will take several hours after the first polls close until one candidate has been declared the winner of enough states to total 270 electoral votes. However, some early states provide the key to who will get to that 270 total.

We'll list the states in the order in which they close. We'll use (D) for states almost certain to vote Democratic, (R) for states to go Republican and (U) for states that are still undetermined which way they will go.

POLL CLOSING TIMES
------------------

6:00 PM Kentucky (8R) and Indiana (11U)

If Indiana is too close to call beyond 7PM, that is a bad sign for John McCain.

7:00 PM Vermont (3D), New Hampshire (4D), South Carolina (8R), Virginia (13U), Georgia (15R), Florida (27U)

The big early battlegrounds are here. Virginia and Florida will dictate the course of the evening. I doubt there will be any declaration for them this hour.

7:30PM West Virginia (5D), Ohio (20U), North Carolina (15U)

By 8PM, the networks will probably declare Indiana for McCain.

7:59 totals - Obama 7, McCain 47

8:00 PM DC (3D), Delaware (3D), Oklahoma (7R), Illinois (21D), Alabama (9R), Conneticut (7D), Maryland (10D), Massachusetts (12D), New Jersey (15D), Kansas (6R), Maine (4D), Tennessee (11R), Michigan (17D), Texas (34R), Mississippi (6R), South Dakota (3R), Pennsylvania (21U), Missouri (11U)

Lots of state, most are not close. However, PA and Missouri are the big ticket battlegrounds in this hour that are the final opportunity for John McCain to keep it close through the night.

8:30 PM Arkansas (6R)

8:59PM totals - Obama 109, McCain 129

9:00 PM New York (31D), Wyoming (3D), Rhode Island (4D), Nebraska (5R), Minnesota (10D), Wisconsin (10D), Louisiana (9R), New Mexico (5D), Colorado (9D), Arizona (10R), North Dakota (3R)

Some of the undecideds start getting called. Virginia and Florida get called for Barack Obama and effectively end the mathematical possibilities for John McCain, although the official electoral vote totals are still far short.

9:59PM totals - Obama 229, McCain 159

10:00 PM Idaho (4R), Utah (5R), Iowa (7D), Nevada (5D), Montana (3R)

10:30PM - Ohio and North Carolina get called for Obama and this Clam Bake is ready for the confetti.

10:59PM totals - Obama 276, McCain 171

11:00 PM Hawaii (4D), California (55D), Oregon (7D), Washington (11D)

11:59PM totals - Obama 353, McCain 171

Midnight Alaska (3R)

FINAL - Obama 353, McCain (174)

At some point, Missouri is eventually declared for McCain making the final total Obama 353, McCain 185

FIRST ELECTION TOTALS IN AT 12:10AM!!!!!
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, Obama 15, McCain 6 - the first time since 1964 the town voted Democratic. This could be the beginning of a very unpleasant day for John McCain.

The Official Voting Booth Presidential Race Prediction

We put all the information into our LEE 1000 computer and out came the following prediction for tomorrow's presidential election:


This is an Obama 353, McCain 185 outcome.

The 2 toughest to decide were North Carolina and Missouri, and we split them. My NC outcome is also somewhat based on a high early voting turnout that was more favorable to Obama and rainy weather expected across the state on Election Day. Missouri would lose its bellweather status if it goes for McCain.

Prediction of Popular Vote - Obama 52%, McCain 47%, Others 1%

Prediction of total votes cast for President - 135 Million

If you have already voted or are too young to vote, you can still play an important role in documenting democracy by becoming part of Video the Vote.

Tomorrow we will have an hour by hour breakdown of how this may play out on Tuesday night.

The Final 2 Days

As expected, the Presidential race is tightening, but National Polls still have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by an average of 6-7%. No candidate has been behind by 5% or more this close to the election and still won it. In fact, the last 4 times that there was a gap of at least 5% in polling 2 days before the election, the final gap was more than 5%.

Pennsylvania is the only state won by John Kerry that John McCain is spending a lot of time and money in this last week. Even though some polls show tightening in PA, the current gap is still 7%. The final battles are being fought on Republican territory and elections are rarely won when you are defending your own ground.

National polls show about 6% of the electorate is undecided. McCain's camp is banking on them winning a predominant share of that 6%. Traditionally, they split pretty evenly. NBC reports that most of the undecideds are older female independents of lower education and this is the group that supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It will be very interesting to see how they eventually vote.

There are 2 factors that may have been underestimated by polling. Young voters are substantially less likely to have a home phone than older voters. Most polls use calls to home phones. Most polls focus on 'likely voters', often using turnout rates of demographics from previous elections. A few (Gallup Extended and others) are trying to adjust this based on an expectation that turnout of minorities and young voters will be at historically high levels. If these two factors have been underestimated, look out. It will be a double digit win for Obama and close to 400 electoral votes.

However it plays out 2 days from now, I believe John McCain was the only Republican candidate that had a chance to win the Presidency in this political climate. I think the John McCain from 2000 would have made this an extremely close race, but the Rove-esque McCain just really didn't have much of a chance.

But however it plays out on Tuesday, let's give John McCain some credit for putting up a good fight, sticking up for what he believes in and appearing on Saturday Night Live with the most popular person in this election, Tina Fey:


You know, John McCain is a pretty funny guy. He was outstanding at the Al Smith dinner and very comfortable in this skit. In 2002, he became the first sitting senator to host SNL and was a total goofball with a great Barbara Streisand imitation/putdown. Special guest appearance by Cindy McCain hawking 'McCain Fine Gold' (great name play) was a perfect role for her. You know, when Bob Dole lost the 1996 election to Bill Clinton (and before he became the spokesman for Viagra), he went on SNL and several other shows and was hysterical. Maybe Republicans running for President need to make sure the American public sees their funny side.

The Non-Polling Way to Predict the Winner

Until an election is over and the votes counted, the outcome is not certain.

However, there are some very important things to consider.

Al Gore and John Kerry came very close to winning the Electoral Vote. Barack Obama is doing better then either of them and John McCain is not campaigning as well and appealing to the American people as well as George Bush.

There is no claim by anyone, anywhere that John McCain will carry any state won by Al Gore or John Kerry. There is talk in the McCain camp about Pennsylvania, but that is because they have no way to claim there is a path to 270 without winning PA. The Phillies won the World Series and this area is filled with happy people. By Election Day they will be sober and looking to win something else and will turn out to vote. Heck there was about 1 Million people at the victory parade on Friday. Phillies fans are familiar with being in a place with a lot of other people for a few hours, so they will definitely turn out to vote in huge numbers on Tuesday.

There are very few people that will claim John McCain has anything but a snowball's chance in h*ll that he will hold onto Bush 2004 states Iowa and New Mexico. That pushes Obama's electoral vote total to 264.

George Bush has historically low approval ratings.

Barack Obama has historically high fundraising amounts.

Republicans all over are bailing on McCain. This last happened in the days leading up to the 1992 election when Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush.

The country wants change. I mean really wants it. They rarely seek it in a member of the same party that is currently in power.

The Obama ground game is very good. Good enough to be better than anything the Republicans can muster. And it doesn't need to be better, just close.

Finally, in the final Soccer Dad, Dance Dad, Lawn Sign Poll, we have a raw score of Obama 43, McCain 27. (This is so non-scientific that it doesn't count as a real poll.) Predominantly Republican neighborhoods had a very similar number of McCain and Obama lawn signs. Predominantly Democratic neighborhoods were almost 10-1 in favor of Obama. This doesn't replicate the actual voting totals, but it does say a lot about the people who feel strongly about their choice for President. A vote is a vote, but a passionate voter probably influences a few others and may get a few ambivalent voters to the polling place. The passion is definitely in Obama's corner and passion usually points in the direction of the winner.