Can John McCain Win?

The technical answer is, of course, Yes, since until all votes are cast and counted, the result is not determined.

But given polls and the environment in which this election is taking place (unpopular Republican president, state of the economy, etc.) is it possible for John McCain to pull out a win?

Perhaps because I have been watching too much CNN lately, I definitely think so. McCain and Palin's recent message being hammered home about Obama's Socialist agenda seems to be having an impact. As I mentioned at the bottom of my blog entry on the Electoral Vote Update 10 Days Out the crowds are eating it up, even if they are ignoring the fact that many of them will be better off under Obama's 'Socialist' tax plan than McCain's proposals. They are also hammering on Joe Biden's remarks that Obama will be tested by foreign countries in the early days of his presidency. I'm not sure how effective that has been, but certainly some voters have stopped and thought about it. Poll numbers are getting a little closer, as tightening usually happens in the final days of a race. Republican GOTV (Get Out the Vote) efforts are usually good for 2-3 points in battleground states. Democratic ground forces are supposed to be able to match them this year in the GOTV effort, but that does remain to be seen. Rainy weather is forecast for a significant portion of the US on Election Day which could dampen turnout of key Democratic demographics such as young voters and minority voters especially those who have not been habitual voters. Obama is not more than a point or two above 50% in any battleground state and even some 'safe' states and if the undecideds all turn to McCain, it really changes how the polls look.

That is the right side of my brain talking. The left side of my brain is very logically analyzing the state by state polls and not finding many ways that McCain can get to 270 electoral votes. Assuming Pennsylvania currently polling at a 10% Obama edge is safe, Obama just needs to win any one (just 1) of these states to lock it up: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Colorado and Indiana. He is tied or leading in all of these states, and his lead is 7% in Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. An overwhelming number of people are voting early and even if the race keeps tightening or something happens in the final 6 days, it won't change any votes already cast. Finally, perhaps the best election predictor of all time, The Weekly Reader Poll, gave barack Obama a 54.7% to 42.9% win. Students from kindergarten to 12th grade took part in the poll. The Weekly Reader has been correct in 12 of the 13 Presidential Elections they have predicted, missing just the 1992 3-Way race between Bill Clinton, George HW Bush and Ross Perot. Kids might just get better answers from their parents than pollsters, so I am putting my money on the kids (but perhaps not that big a win).