The Worst Nightmare for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party

Yogi Berra famously said, "It ain't over until it's over". The Obama campaign and DNC is probably having that printed on t-shirts, hats and buttons and distributed around the country.

Nightmare #1 - Polls show Obama ahead by far enough that a high percentage of newly registered voters, especially young and minority, decide it is no longer important for them to vote thereby making the race a lot closer than most polls currently indicate.

Nightmare #2 - Virginia (polls close at 7PM Eastern time) and/or North Carolina (polls close at 7:30PM) have exit polls that show a convincing victory for Barack Obama and 1 or more National TV stations call the state for Obama. Without either state, Obama probably has 264 solid electoral votes, so either of these southern states in Obama's corner would put him over the top of the 270 electoral votes needed to gain the Presidency. This would be at 5:30PM in the mountain states and 4:30PM in the west. There would still be a lot of time before polls close in those states, but many new or sporadic voters may be compelled to not make the effort to vote. This could effect Obama's totals in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, but it will certainly have an impact on the so-called "down ticket" races. This is one of several reasons why the Obama campaign has been pushing followers to vote early in states that enable all voters to cast their ballot prior to Election Day. Locking in their following now rather than risk the outcome to how events play out on Election Day.

Obama has raised an unbelievable amount of money ($150 Million in September alone, or almost twice the total of public funds McCain had to spend on his entire campaign) and a considerable portion of it is being spent on GOTV (Get Out the Vote). In addition to being necessary to overcome the traditional advantage that the Republican party has in "The Ground Game", it is the only effective counter to these 2 Obama Nightmare situations. This attentiveness to details and a thoroughness of organization could turn a close election into a landslide and would be a good portent for a government that is on its game.