Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

In 2004, over 122 Million people voted for President of the United States. This was a 15% increase over the 105 Million who voted in 2000. This was still only 56% of the Voting Age Population. Only 3 states (Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine) had turnout levels above 70% of Voting Age registration in 2004.

By most accounts, the 2008 election will set a record for turnout. How big will it be? 130 Million? 135? 140?

One sign that this year's turnout will be a record is the record setting turnout so far in the 34 states and D.C. that have early voting, including reports in many areas where people waited on line for several hours before getting to vote. Will polling places be able to handle the Election Day turnout even with so many voting early? Maybe not.

Approximately 1/3 of all votes cast (perhaps 40-45 million) will be done prior to Election Day. This would be about twice the amount of early votes cast in 2004. The significance is that if something were to occur in the final 12 days of the election, it would not have as significant an impact. Votes cast cannot be changed, they are in the bank. This is just one additional thing working against John McCain this year.

The turnout numbers we listed above were based on all age eligible voters. On Election Day, it is also very important to look at just those who are registered to vote (on Election Day, if you aren't registered, it doesn't matter if you are eligible). Overall in the US in 2004, 73% of registered voters turned out to vote. Only 4 states (Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado) had registered turnout over 80%. That means that 27% of registered voters did not cast a vote. With about a dozen states expected to have a result within 5%, this 27% of no-shows is what the ground forces of both campaigns are focused on. The Republican ground game has always been impressive, but the Obama forces may be the best in the history of the Democratic party. We are probably in for some very big numbers across most states.