One Week to Go - How Does It Look?

The website fivethirtyeight.com is dedicated to providing incredibly high level numerical analysis of the distribution of electoral votes for the candidates. So it is a real bonus when one of their blogs lays out this elegant analysis of a difference in the messages from the campaigns as portrayed by The Three Ashleys.

Here is the Electoral-vote.com electoral vote count for states with a 5% or greater lead by a candidate:


Although Obama's total is a few points off its high point, it is still solidly above the 270 goal. With 1 week to go, it is very, very difficult to turn around a state that has not just one but several polls averaging out to a 5% or more lead.

Sign of desperation - The Republican party has bought television ads in Montana, a state that has been solid Republican for a long time.

More (lawn) signs of desperation for John McCain - My travels to my son's and daughter's sporting events yesterday took me through some very contrasting neighborhoods. One mile long street is in the wealthiest town in the greater Philadelphia area. There are not many homes on this street that are valued under $1 Million. The high net-worth community generally votes Republican but a lawn sign count along this drive was Obama 6, McCain 3. If John McCain has trouble winning the wealthy Philadelphia suburbanite vote, it will be very difficult for him to win Pennsylvania, the linchpin in his narrow path to 270.

A later part of my trip took me on a similarly long 1 mile stretch of a road through a town, but this was a predominantly black neighborhood of modest income. This city of Chester is perhaps the largest predominantly black location that has a majority Republican registration and usually votes Republican. I stopped getting an exact count of lawn signs because there were too many on these small front lawns to count and drive safely, but it was perhaps about 10 to 1 Obama signs. Granted, since Obama is going to get over 95% of the black vote, this may not be a surprise, but remember, this is an area that usually votes Republican and could account for a portion of the 5% of blacks not voting for Obama. Black turnout could be as high as 90% of registered voters nationwide. Recent presidential elections have had an overall turnout of about 70% of all registered voters and a lower number for minorities and voters under 30. If youth voter turnout is similarly at all time records, a group that is about 2 to 1 favoring Obama, the polls may not be sufficiently calculating Obama's support.