A Finish to an Historic Year in Presidential Politics

In so many ways, this has been an historic year in politics. Some good, some bad, some stranger than fiction, but mostly it has been good.

From a final Presidential race between a mixed-race political neophyte with a strange and potentially damning name running against an aged former POW who had already been counted out several times, to the first close-to-successful female candidacy who despite her struggle against the President Elect was still his nominee for Secretary of State, to an engaged and energized electorate in one of the most economically dangerous times in our country's history, this has been quite a year.

To celebrate, perhaps you would like to attend the Inauguration. Not well-connected? No problem. Just write from your heart and you have a chance. The Presidential Inaugural Committee is giving away tickets to those who write the best essay on why they want to attend.

Without a doubt, 2009 will be a very interesting year, if just to see how this great drama unfolds. But whatever happens, don't expect the same dog and pony shows you have been accustomed to from past presidencies. This Obama dude is one cool character.


This is our 100th and final Blog entry for 2008. A lot more to come in 2009 as the results of The Voting Booth turns into the Obama Presidency.

Keep it Cool in 2009.

What is a Senate Seat Worth Anyway?

Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich is probably guilty of many things, but the most recent indiscretion and the one that forced the hand of US Attorney (and my former classmate) Patrick Fitzgerald to take immediate action was Blagojevich's attempt to sell the senate seat vacated by Barack Obama. In perhaps the most blatant and public version of "Pay to Play" in history, we see just how low a public figure can stoop.

However, we also have a great chance for an Economics lesson. If you were in the market to obtain a U.S. Senate seat would be a fair value? I could regale you with my Economic acumen, but we are all much better off seeing the analysis done by Leigh Caldwell director of think tank Intellectual Business.

His analysis comes up with higher totals than I would and seems to discount that Senators actually have to work to acquire these rewards or they will certainly not be re-elected. However his analysis that the most valuable part of a Senate seat occurs after one leaves the Senate is spot on. Which brings us to think about what other things are there that you would buy and they are more valuable to you after you relinquish them?

Another Senate seat about to be awarded is the New York seat being vacated by new Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton. In a totally different fashion than the Illinois seat, NY Governor David Paterson (himself filling a seat initially won by defrocked Eliot Spitzer), is playing it very close to the vest, but is close to naming his nominee. The most likely candidates are familiar family names, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo and Caroline Kennedy, but I wouldn't be too surprised if someone else is named.

Obama Appoints Clinton as Secretary of State AKA The West Wing Imitates "The West Wing"

Today, in a move anticipated for several weeks, but still stunning in many ways, President-Elect Barack Obama has named former campaign rival Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State.

If this combination sounds a little familiar, perhaps you just need to venture back a few years to another election, but this one was only on the small screen.

In the second to last episode of the great TV series "The West Wing", President Elect Matt Santos (Jimmie Smits) offers the position of Secretary of State to his former campaign rival Arnie Vinick (Alan Alda).

Granted, Alda played the Republican candidate, not a challenger for the Democratic nomination, but there are many other similarities. I think it is telling to recount dialog between Alda's character, Senator Arnie Vinick as he goes over the offer of Secretary of State with his spouse:

"I disagree with him about everything...."
"You don't disagree on foreign policy. You think about it differently. You use different rhetoric but you agree on the objectives—"
"He just wants to take me out of the campaign. He's afraid to run against me again...." He looks at Sheila, "You really don't think I can win, do you?"
"Maybe if you were ten years younger.... It's not just your age.
Stevenson got the nomination twice in a row fifty years ago and he lost both times. You can enter the history books as maybe the last honorable Senator and a great Secretary of State. Or you can be the guy who just didn't know when to quit."

Interestingly, this episode was directed by Tim Matheson, who played Vice President Hoynes earlier in the series. No, I doubt Vice-President Chaney (or Al Gore or even Dan Quayle) had anything to do with directing Obama's offer to Clinton.

What's the Difference Between Sarah Palin and a Turkey?

Well, I will let the reader come up with at least dozen punchlines to that setup, but the following video shows you that plenty of times, life is just funnier than anything that script writers can come up with.

This isn't as graphic as some media outlets have indicated, but be forewarned that it is real.


Oh, and to those who appreciate Political Comedy, Sarah Palin is the gift that keeps on giving.

Either Sarah intentionally had them set up that shot with the Turkey Handling Area in the right side of the picture, she was oblivious to it, or she just didn't care. Take your pick, but any way you slice it, Sarah Palin is not like most politicians, at least not those from the Lower 48.

Humor and the Obama White House

I've been a political junkie for many years, but a comedy fanatic for a lot longer, so when the two intersect, well, it's Miller Time.

So the biggest question on my mind is, what will be the focus of comedy during the Obama years? Despite Fred Armisen's attempts, Barack Obama is unlikely to provide a lot of good comedic material. Jay Leno (soon to be Conan O'Brien) and David Lettermen will try their best, but it will be tough with a President who basically is pretty boring (and we should all be thankful for that).

However, last Saturday, I think I saw what Saturday Night Live will plan to focus on for the next 4 years. If the top of the ticket isn't a good candidate for a caricature, go to the Veep. Although Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle and even Spiro Agnew had plenty of jokes pointed their way, Vice Presidents really haven't been the focus of comedy skits. Until now.


If Hillary Clinton does get named as Secretary of State, (and Amy Poehler is available), that provides another big cache of material.


Odds are that at some point, Tina Fey reprises her role as Sarah Palin, because there is no doubt that Sarah will wind up surfacing from time to time. Just today, on a local radio station, I heard Sarah Palin referred to as the 'Paris Hilton of Politics' because she keeps popping back into our consciousness. Who knows, Tina and Amy might be doing the Presidential Debate skits in 2016.

If Hillary is in the Cabinet, well, Darrell Hammond may wind up staying on the SNL staff until he can collect Social Security because Bill Clinton won't be far from the national spotlight and will give comedy writers some good material.

Around the Horn about Clinton as Secretary of State

I have read as many different online opinions as I can find about the concept of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.

They seem to fall into 3 categories:

Bigtime Fans of Obama and/or Clinton - they love it for so many reasons that they aren't seeing any realities. It is the Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama team they had dreamed about.

Clinton or Obama Haters - Nothing is going to make them happy at this point and this is just another opportunity to gripe.

Realists - This is where most of the good insights are coming. Obama is keeping and ally/adversary close and out of the Senate. Bill Clinton's financial dealings will need to be vetted and could wind up closing the door on Hillary's shot at the job. Hillary may prefer staying in the Senate. Even though she is currently the junior senator from NY and not in line for any committee chairs, that will change in time, but only if she stays in the Senate.

Me - I think it happens. Good chance it winds up being a good move for all.

Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State?

Wow.

Apparently (and this is based on a Frankenstein piecing together of info from various media outlets, so all caveats apply) Barack Obama met privately with Hillary Clinton this week and effectively asked her if she were to be offered the position of Secretary of State, would she take it.

Here is a stream of consciousness list of thoughts about it:

Hillary wasn't vetted as VP, but appears to be Obama's first choice for Secretary of State.

How does 4-8 years as Sec of State compare with a probable lifetime job as Senator from NY.

Hillary is a very well known commodity and the American public will generally be pretty comfortable with this.

She is definitely viewed by Republicans as being closer to the Right on International issues than Obama, so they will be fairly supportive of this move.

Secretary of State Clinton is a lot easier to keep in line with the the voice of the administration than Senator Clinton.

Bill Clinton is unlikely to do anything that would intentionally deep six Hillary's position which means he probably stays about as tame as Bill Clinton can be. It also means he might get to travel a bit.

As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton would definitely not run for president again. Until perhaps 2016.


On CNN Friday, former Republican speaker of the house, Tom DeLay called Obama's selection of Rahm Emanuel as Chief of Staff and the potential selection of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State as brilliant. He did then go on to talk about how America would learn how liberal Obama was and what that would do to the economy. (It was a very abrupt change, almost like flipping a switch. That's "The Hammer" for you.)

Word has also surfaced that Obama has also spoken to both New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Wisconsin Governor Jim Doyle. Clinton probably has the right of first refusal and the order of follow-up selection is probably as listed here. If Clinton is not Sec of State, it is because she chooses not to be.

A Palin Retrospective

Politico offers an analysis of the impact of Sarah Palin's addition to the McCain ticket. It identifies 3 ways in which she was supposed to help:

1) Energize the Conservative Base
2) Attract Independents
3) Attract the PUMA group and other Hillary Clinton Supporters

Politico determines that Palin failed on all 3 accounts. The numbers are pretty clear that at best she had a neutral impact on the 2nd and 3rd items, and probably was a negative. Obama won independents by 8% and prior to the Conventions, many polls showed McCain slightly ahead among independents. Obama won women by 13% and if you watched the Vice-Presidential debate on CNN and saw the live voting reactions of undecided men and women, this was not a surprise. Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin have the same XX Chromosomes, but that is about where the similarity ends. It might be difficult to find many women who are that far apart in their political views (and even political knowledge). Women weren't buying it and undecideds were perhaps turned off.

The one category I am not so easily convinced about is whether she energized the base. This is an area where the term 'compared to what' comes to mind. Politco stated that "Core Republican turnout declined 1.3 percent compared to four years ago". However, there are 3 important points to consider before drawing conclusions from that fact:

1) Republican registration dropped between 2004 and 2008
2) Almost every poll right before Election Day showed McCain behind by 5-7%.
3) We don't know what Republican turnout for McCain would have been without Palin, only the turnout in 2004.

The drop in Registration alone explains about 50% of the drop in turnout between 2004 and 2008.

A strong indication of defeat often depresses turnout for the underdog party, especially in states that are not battlegrounds and the outcome (one way or another) is almost certain.

Perhaps most importantly, we just don't know what type of turnout John McCain was looking at before he added Sarah Palin to the ticket. Certainly there was not a lot of energy within Conservative circles prior to her selection. If McCain had picked Romney or Pawlenty, would the Conservative base have been as energized? My guess is no. Turnout among Republicans could have been down by a lot more had Palin not been on the ticket.

So that's my take. Palin's impact was that Republican turnout didn't stink as badly as it would have. She was also a great support in McCain's efforts to rebrand himself as part of the Karl Rove school of Republicans which contributed to losing the Independent and Women's vote.

Coming in a future post - What could John McCain have done differently to have a realistic chance to win?

Obama Meets Bush

Barack Obama met with George Bush at the White House on Monday in another step in this transition of power. I had a sense of symmetry as I saw them walking together. Obama's approval rating is about the same as Bush's disapproval rating.

The Sunday talk shows had much speculation on what would be said and asked with many posing that there really wasn't anything that Obama needed to know from Bush. It was widely reported that Obama did wind up encouraging Bush to support a financial bailout of the auto industry with strong requirements that they meet stringent emissions and alternative fuel guidelines in the future. This whole situation is challenging to find the correct side on as the collapse of the US auto industry would result in the loss of 2-3 million jobs. However, a bailout would be like giving your crack addicted friend a pile of cash and driving him to the dealer.

Although we don't know everything that the President and President-Elect spoke about, our friend David Letterman put together his Top 10 list of things that Bush & Obama really talked about:


Item # 3 isn't just funny, it is sadly the reason why we are in such a big mess. When Bush was elected, my biggest concern was that he wasn't a hard worker. I think he outsourced most of his responsibilities to others, particularly Dick Cheney and didn't have an overriding concern about what they did. Barack Obama will have more challenges than perhaps any previous President as they entered office and may or may not have a successful presidency. However, one thing I am not concerned about is that he will be lazy and not hold others accountable for their decisions.

The New Electoral Map

One of the things Barack Obama spoke about early in the Primary Season was his desire to change the Blue & Red status of the Electoral Map over the last few elections. Not only did he change some longtime Reds to Blues, but he even made one state Purple!

There were some states that had been Blue states at some point in the last 4 Presidential Elections, but the Dems had not garnered 50% of the vote which Obama took at least 50%:

New Mexico
Colorado
Nevada
Ohio
Florida

Some states the Obama didn't win, but still received a higher percentage of the vote than any Democratic candidate in the previous 4 Presidential elections:

Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Georgia
South Carolina
Nebraska

Perhaps most amazingly, won 3 states in which Democrats had not been particularly competitive recently and would not have been thought of as anything but solid red states until last Tuesday:

Virginia
North Carolina
Indiana

Last but not least, the first truly PURPLE state:

Nebraska

as Barack Obama has most probably won the 1st Congressional District surrounding Omaha in a state that he lost by 16% (but did win a higher percentage of the vote than any of the last 4 Democratic Presidential nominees).

Obama won 95% of the African American vote, 67% of the Latino and Asian vote. He took only 43% of the White vote, but that is less of a concern in a country that is becoming even more racially diverse than ever before. Estimates are that Whites will make up less than 50% of the Adult population in the United States by 2016. As people who are more likely to vote Democratic (non-whites, youth, etc.) are moving into urban and suburban centers of battleground states and people who are more likely to vote Republicans concentrate themselves into a dozen or so states that have already been solidly Red States for a long time, Republicans may be painting themselves into a corner that becomes very difficult to overcome.

It is going to take a whole lot more people to move into Kansas and Wyoming thereby increasing the Electoral Vote counts for those states before they can create the foundation of a winning electoral strategy.

Election Night and Prediction Review

I'm spent. Who new that political spectating and blogging was this exhausting. I needed a day to recover and digest everything.

Part of me is proud and amazed that the United States has elected its first person of color as POTUS. Part of me is wondering if Barack Obama has had a moment like Robert Redford did in "The Candidate" at the end after he wins and realizes, Oh my gosh, now what do I do.

First, how did we do on predictions? Go back to our outcome prediction from Monday and you will see we did pretty well. Our electoral vote prediction was Obama 353, McCain 185. We got 49 states and D.C. correct, but missed Obama's 23,000 vote (out of 2.3 Million) win in Indiana. I am particularly proud of the way we called 2 of the toughest states:

The 2 toughest to decide were North Carolina and Missouri, and we split them. My NC outcome is also somewhat based on a high early voting turnout that was more favorable to Obama and rainy weather expected across the state on Election Day. Missouri would lose its bellweather status if it goes for McCain.

Democrats had a huge advantage in early voting turnout and the rain throughout the state on Election Day may just have had enough impact on turnout to keep Obama in the lead. Assuming current vote totals hold, this is the first time in history a Democrat won the election without taking Missouri, which had gone to the winning candidate in 11 straight presidential elections.

Our popular vote projection was Obama 52, McCain 47. It looks like it will wind up being about 52.4% to 46.4%, so again, very close.

Our vote total projection was for 135 Million which would be 65% of age eligible voters. It appears that will wind up being a bit overly optimistic. Although the exact total won't be known for several weeks, there are about 122 Million votes counted so far and probably a few million more absentee and early votes yet to be counted. It will be interesting to do a state by state comparison because some states and nice increases in turnout.

In my Election Day Hour by Hour predictions, we were also pretty close. In fact, we ended with:

At some point, Missouri is eventually declared for McCain making the final total Obama 353, McCain 185

Correctly predicting Missouri would be the last state called and that it would go to McCain. As of 3:30PM Eastern time on Thursday, it is still not officially McCain's, although he leads by almost 6,000 votes.

I thought that Obama would be declared the winner at 10:30PM after Ohio and North Carolina were called. North Carolina wasn't called until today and so it was the block of 4 Democratic states closing at 11PM Eastern time (California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii) that put Obama over the top. In fact, once all the networks had Obama over 200 Electoral votes an hour or so earlier, the knowledge that this foursome with 77 electoral votes was rock solid for Obama meant his ascent past 270 was certain.

Some states that I was surprised were called so early - Pennsylvania, North Dakota. Both were called shortly after polls were closed. I thought North Dakota would be close enough to wait until some votes were tallied. With the significance of Pennsylvania being the only way McCain could get to 270, I would have guessed the networks would have waited a bit, just to make sure (No Florida, No Way), but I guess they had enough data to be confident and didn't want to be outscooped by the other networks.

Other states like Texas and Nebraska, both won my McCain by larger margins than the outcomes in Pennsylvania and North Dakota were listed as too early to call for a lot longer than necessary.

Finally, in our last Soccer Dad Lawn Sign Poll we had Obama 43, McCain 27 raw score, which translates to Obama 61.4%, McCain 38.6%. The actual voting in our county, Delware County, PA was Obama 60.1%, McCain 38.9%. Chalk one up for The Soccer Dads!

It's An Obama-Nation!!!!

There are still more votes to count and electoral votes to award, but Barack Obama will become the 44th President of the United States.

The official announcement came almost simultaneously from all networks at 11:00 PM Eastern Time as polls closed in California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. There were no attempts to call Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana or Montana before 11AM. In fact, the last 4 were still not called as of 1AM eastern time.

An historic outcome on an historic night.

Lots of days of analysis and highlighting results ahead, but for now, applaud America for overcoming centuries of racial prejudice and electing the first African American president of the United States. A date that will be read about in history books for the remainder of US history.

Election Day 2008 - What to Expect

You can gather together your friends, great refreshments and settle in for a long night watching your HD TV. But unlikely 2000 and 2004, it may not be that long a night before we know how it will end. It will take several hours after the first polls close until one candidate has been declared the winner of enough states to total 270 electoral votes. However, some early states provide the key to who will get to that 270 total.

We'll list the states in the order in which they close. We'll use (D) for states almost certain to vote Democratic, (R) for states to go Republican and (U) for states that are still undetermined which way they will go.

POLL CLOSING TIMES
------------------

6:00 PM Kentucky (8R) and Indiana (11U)

If Indiana is too close to call beyond 7PM, that is a bad sign for John McCain.

7:00 PM Vermont (3D), New Hampshire (4D), South Carolina (8R), Virginia (13U), Georgia (15R), Florida (27U)

The big early battlegrounds are here. Virginia and Florida will dictate the course of the evening. I doubt there will be any declaration for them this hour.

7:30PM West Virginia (5D), Ohio (20U), North Carolina (15U)

By 8PM, the networks will probably declare Indiana for McCain.

7:59 totals - Obama 7, McCain 47

8:00 PM DC (3D), Delaware (3D), Oklahoma (7R), Illinois (21D), Alabama (9R), Conneticut (7D), Maryland (10D), Massachusetts (12D), New Jersey (15D), Kansas (6R), Maine (4D), Tennessee (11R), Michigan (17D), Texas (34R), Mississippi (6R), South Dakota (3R), Pennsylvania (21U), Missouri (11U)

Lots of state, most are not close. However, PA and Missouri are the big ticket battlegrounds in this hour that are the final opportunity for John McCain to keep it close through the night.

8:30 PM Arkansas (6R)

8:59PM totals - Obama 109, McCain 129

9:00 PM New York (31D), Wyoming (3D), Rhode Island (4D), Nebraska (5R), Minnesota (10D), Wisconsin (10D), Louisiana (9R), New Mexico (5D), Colorado (9D), Arizona (10R), North Dakota (3R)

Some of the undecideds start getting called. Virginia and Florida get called for Barack Obama and effectively end the mathematical possibilities for John McCain, although the official electoral vote totals are still far short.

9:59PM totals - Obama 229, McCain 159

10:00 PM Idaho (4R), Utah (5R), Iowa (7D), Nevada (5D), Montana (3R)

10:30PM - Ohio and North Carolina get called for Obama and this Clam Bake is ready for the confetti.

10:59PM totals - Obama 276, McCain 171

11:00 PM Hawaii (4D), California (55D), Oregon (7D), Washington (11D)

11:59PM totals - Obama 353, McCain 171

Midnight Alaska (3R)

FINAL - Obama 353, McCain (174)

At some point, Missouri is eventually declared for McCain making the final total Obama 353, McCain 185

FIRST ELECTION TOTALS IN AT 12:10AM!!!!!
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, Obama 15, McCain 6 - the first time since 1964 the town voted Democratic. This could be the beginning of a very unpleasant day for John McCain.

The Official Voting Booth Presidential Race Prediction

We put all the information into our LEE 1000 computer and out came the following prediction for tomorrow's presidential election:


This is an Obama 353, McCain 185 outcome.

The 2 toughest to decide were North Carolina and Missouri, and we split them. My NC outcome is also somewhat based on a high early voting turnout that was more favorable to Obama and rainy weather expected across the state on Election Day. Missouri would lose its bellweather status if it goes for McCain.

Prediction of Popular Vote - Obama 52%, McCain 47%, Others 1%

Prediction of total votes cast for President - 135 Million

If you have already voted or are too young to vote, you can still play an important role in documenting democracy by becoming part of Video the Vote.

Tomorrow we will have an hour by hour breakdown of how this may play out on Tuesday night.

The Final 2 Days

As expected, the Presidential race is tightening, but National Polls still have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by an average of 6-7%. No candidate has been behind by 5% or more this close to the election and still won it. In fact, the last 4 times that there was a gap of at least 5% in polling 2 days before the election, the final gap was more than 5%.

Pennsylvania is the only state won by John Kerry that John McCain is spending a lot of time and money in this last week. Even though some polls show tightening in PA, the current gap is still 7%. The final battles are being fought on Republican territory and elections are rarely won when you are defending your own ground.

National polls show about 6% of the electorate is undecided. McCain's camp is banking on them winning a predominant share of that 6%. Traditionally, they split pretty evenly. NBC reports that most of the undecideds are older female independents of lower education and this is the group that supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. It will be very interesting to see how they eventually vote.

There are 2 factors that may have been underestimated by polling. Young voters are substantially less likely to have a home phone than older voters. Most polls use calls to home phones. Most polls focus on 'likely voters', often using turnout rates of demographics from previous elections. A few (Gallup Extended and others) are trying to adjust this based on an expectation that turnout of minorities and young voters will be at historically high levels. If these two factors have been underestimated, look out. It will be a double digit win for Obama and close to 400 electoral votes.

However it plays out 2 days from now, I believe John McCain was the only Republican candidate that had a chance to win the Presidency in this political climate. I think the John McCain from 2000 would have made this an extremely close race, but the Rove-esque McCain just really didn't have much of a chance.

But however it plays out on Tuesday, let's give John McCain some credit for putting up a good fight, sticking up for what he believes in and appearing on Saturday Night Live with the most popular person in this election, Tina Fey:


You know, John McCain is a pretty funny guy. He was outstanding at the Al Smith dinner and very comfortable in this skit. In 2002, he became the first sitting senator to host SNL and was a total goofball with a great Barbara Streisand imitation/putdown. Special guest appearance by Cindy McCain hawking 'McCain Fine Gold' (great name play) was a perfect role for her. You know, when Bob Dole lost the 1996 election to Bill Clinton (and before he became the spokesman for Viagra), he went on SNL and several other shows and was hysterical. Maybe Republicans running for President need to make sure the American public sees their funny side.

The Non-Polling Way to Predict the Winner

Until an election is over and the votes counted, the outcome is not certain.

However, there are some very important things to consider.

Al Gore and John Kerry came very close to winning the Electoral Vote. Barack Obama is doing better then either of them and John McCain is not campaigning as well and appealing to the American people as well as George Bush.

There is no claim by anyone, anywhere that John McCain will carry any state won by Al Gore or John Kerry. There is talk in the McCain camp about Pennsylvania, but that is because they have no way to claim there is a path to 270 without winning PA. The Phillies won the World Series and this area is filled with happy people. By Election Day they will be sober and looking to win something else and will turn out to vote. Heck there was about 1 Million people at the victory parade on Friday. Phillies fans are familiar with being in a place with a lot of other people for a few hours, so they will definitely turn out to vote in huge numbers on Tuesday.

There are very few people that will claim John McCain has anything but a snowball's chance in h*ll that he will hold onto Bush 2004 states Iowa and New Mexico. That pushes Obama's electoral vote total to 264.

George Bush has historically low approval ratings.

Barack Obama has historically high fundraising amounts.

Republicans all over are bailing on McCain. This last happened in the days leading up to the 1992 election when Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush.

The country wants change. I mean really wants it. They rarely seek it in a member of the same party that is currently in power.

The Obama ground game is very good. Good enough to be better than anything the Republicans can muster. And it doesn't need to be better, just close.

Finally, in the final Soccer Dad, Dance Dad, Lawn Sign Poll, we have a raw score of Obama 43, McCain 27. (This is so non-scientific that it doesn't count as a real poll.) Predominantly Republican neighborhoods had a very similar number of McCain and Obama lawn signs. Predominantly Democratic neighborhoods were almost 10-1 in favor of Obama. This doesn't replicate the actual voting totals, but it does say a lot about the people who feel strongly about their choice for President. A vote is a vote, but a passionate voter probably influences a few others and may get a few ambivalent voters to the polling place. The passion is definitely in Obama's corner and passion usually points in the direction of the winner.

Halloween Masquerade

Happy Halloween. First, let's see how Halloween is trying to predict the outcome of the Presidential Election. Amazon tracks sales of Obama and McCain masks. It is surprisingly close to many national polls.

Next, an update on our take on the Electoral Vote breakdown.


This map represents an Electoral Vote count of Obama 291, McCain 142 with 105 uncommitted electoral votes. This is 21 more than the 270 needed to get elected. So even if John McCain were to win all of the uncommitted states on this map (and several of them are already leaning Obama), he would still be 23 Electoral votes short. Hence the desire by the McCain campaign to win Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes, but even that would be short. McCain would need to take another state like Nevada or New Hampshire.

You can see a recent explanation of the CNN Magic Electoral Map here:


If you want to prepare for Election night, look at this map which shows when polls close. We plan to make a post in the next few days taking you through hour by hour on Election night and when states and their electoral votes will be called for one of the 2 candidates.


Finally, there are few things that could have seemed more appropriate on this Halloween than my city of Philadelphia doing one heck of a job masquerading as a city of champions. After 25 years of 4 sports teams failing to win a championship, the Phillies won the World Series on Wednesday night. After several nights of absolutely horrible weather conditions that made playing difficult and/or impossible, the parade today was in beautiful warm sunshine with open blue skies. So for the Phillies, their fans, both John McCain and Barack Obama and all of their supporters, today we leave you with Don't Stop Believing by Journey:

Barack Obama - The Movie

This could have turned out to be not only a colossal waste of a ton of money, but could have created a late reason for voters to believe they had too much of Barack Obama and decided NOT to vote for him.

I don't know how many of the 333.5 Million people who watched last night decided to vote for Barack Obama based on last night's 30 minute infomercial on 7 stations. However, it probably prevented any voters who were leaning Obama from running away. It was a bit hokey and overproduced at times, but if he can run a country with half as much efficiency and timing as this production, we'll definitely be heading in the right direction. It was beautifully edited piece and then transitioned seamlessly to Obama speaking live in Florida, a neat feat. I had simultaneous sensations of seeing Bill Clinton's "A Man from Hope" just before Election Day 1992 and the day in hostory (October 27, 1975) when Bruce Springsteen appeared simultaneously on the covers of both Time and Newsweek, an enormous media coup.


Interestingly, Bruce Springsteen has been playing benefit concerts for Barack Obama.

Negative campaigning often works despite our supposed distaste for it. However, it almost always fails against a mostly positive campaign that paints a picture of the future that people can see themselves in. There was no negativity in Obama's infomercial, in fact, John McCain was not even mentioned. This is in stark contrast to McCain's time on Larry King Live the same night as well as the campaign stops for McCain and Sarah Palin in recent days.

Can John McCain Win?

The technical answer is, of course, Yes, since until all votes are cast and counted, the result is not determined.

But given polls and the environment in which this election is taking place (unpopular Republican president, state of the economy, etc.) is it possible for John McCain to pull out a win?

Perhaps because I have been watching too much CNN lately, I definitely think so. McCain and Palin's recent message being hammered home about Obama's Socialist agenda seems to be having an impact. As I mentioned at the bottom of my blog entry on the Electoral Vote Update 10 Days Out the crowds are eating it up, even if they are ignoring the fact that many of them will be better off under Obama's 'Socialist' tax plan than McCain's proposals. They are also hammering on Joe Biden's remarks that Obama will be tested by foreign countries in the early days of his presidency. I'm not sure how effective that has been, but certainly some voters have stopped and thought about it. Poll numbers are getting a little closer, as tightening usually happens in the final days of a race. Republican GOTV (Get Out the Vote) efforts are usually good for 2-3 points in battleground states. Democratic ground forces are supposed to be able to match them this year in the GOTV effort, but that does remain to be seen. Rainy weather is forecast for a significant portion of the US on Election Day which could dampen turnout of key Democratic demographics such as young voters and minority voters especially those who have not been habitual voters. Obama is not more than a point or two above 50% in any battleground state and even some 'safe' states and if the undecideds all turn to McCain, it really changes how the polls look.

That is the right side of my brain talking. The left side of my brain is very logically analyzing the state by state polls and not finding many ways that McCain can get to 270 electoral votes. Assuming Pennsylvania currently polling at a 10% Obama edge is safe, Obama just needs to win any one (just 1) of these states to lock it up: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Colorado and Indiana. He is tied or leading in all of these states, and his lead is 7% in Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. An overwhelming number of people are voting early and even if the race keeps tightening or something happens in the final 6 days, it won't change any votes already cast. Finally, perhaps the best election predictor of all time, The Weekly Reader Poll, gave barack Obama a 54.7% to 42.9% win. Students from kindergarten to 12th grade took part in the poll. The Weekly Reader has been correct in 12 of the 13 Presidential Elections they have predicted, missing just the 1992 3-Way race between Bill Clinton, George HW Bush and Ross Perot. Kids might just get better answers from their parents than pollsters, so I am putting my money on the kids (but perhaps not that big a win).

One Week to Go - How Does It Look?

The website fivethirtyeight.com is dedicated to providing incredibly high level numerical analysis of the distribution of electoral votes for the candidates. So it is a real bonus when one of their blogs lays out this elegant analysis of a difference in the messages from the campaigns as portrayed by The Three Ashleys.

Here is the Electoral-vote.com electoral vote count for states with a 5% or greater lead by a candidate:


Although Obama's total is a few points off its high point, it is still solidly above the 270 goal. With 1 week to go, it is very, very difficult to turn around a state that has not just one but several polls averaging out to a 5% or more lead.

Sign of desperation - The Republican party has bought television ads in Montana, a state that has been solid Republican for a long time.

More (lawn) signs of desperation for John McCain - My travels to my son's and daughter's sporting events yesterday took me through some very contrasting neighborhoods. One mile long street is in the wealthiest town in the greater Philadelphia area. There are not many homes on this street that are valued under $1 Million. The high net-worth community generally votes Republican but a lawn sign count along this drive was Obama 6, McCain 3. If John McCain has trouble winning the wealthy Philadelphia suburbanite vote, it will be very difficult for him to win Pennsylvania, the linchpin in his narrow path to 270.

A later part of my trip took me on a similarly long 1 mile stretch of a road through a town, but this was a predominantly black neighborhood of modest income. This city of Chester is perhaps the largest predominantly black location that has a majority Republican registration and usually votes Republican. I stopped getting an exact count of lawn signs because there were too many on these small front lawns to count and drive safely, but it was perhaps about 10 to 1 Obama signs. Granted, since Obama is going to get over 95% of the black vote, this may not be a surprise, but remember, this is an area that usually votes Republican and could account for a portion of the 5% of blacks not voting for Obama. Black turnout could be as high as 90% of registered voters nationwide. Recent presidential elections have had an overall turnout of about 70% of all registered voters and a lower number for minorities and voters under 30. If youth voter turnout is similarly at all time records, a group that is about 2 to 1 favoring Obama, the polls may not be sufficiently calculating Obama's support.

Does a Lead in the Polls Mean a Win?

A poll is a (fairly) scientific attempt to take a snapshot of public sentiment at a given point in time (often performed over 2-3 days). But even accepting for a moment that a really good poll will show current sentiment, do people wind up voting the way they say they are thinking they will vote just 10-14 days prior?

Gallop does a good job digging through their historical numbers and showing that Late Upsets Rarely Happen. The story is that it is rare for a Presidential Candidate to overcome a polling deficit just a week away from the Election, but it has happened. Bush (2000) and Carter (1980) were leading in polling in late October, but did not win the popular vote on Election Day. Bush still won the electoral vote count which is all that mattered. Carter and Reagan had their only head to head debate on October 28th and as I have mentioned previously, that was the kicker for Reagan. He looked as if he could be OK handling the presidency and people wanted a change. A poll taken after the debate but before Election Day had Reagan moving into the lead, so in many ways, that should have been the poll used by Gallop in this analysis.

What history does show is that if a candidate is behind by double digits in late October, they just can't make up the difference. Early voting in over 30 states has also enabled Obama to lock in the sentiment 2 weeks out and decreases the chances McCain has for a late comeback.

Although Electoral-vote.com shows that the average of its 8 polls has an Obama 6% lead, the Gallop expanded poll has a 9% Obama lead (10% announced this afternoon for 10/27 results). The expanded poll for likely voters uses only current voting intentions, not historical turnout. This estimate is estimating that there will be a higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities. While this is reasonable, it is not certain. Gallop's traditional model has a 5% Obama edge. I am sure the Republicans are focused on this number. So if I keep harping on the fact that this is an electoral vote race, not a popular vote contest, why care about the national popular vote poll results? Assuming it is possible for an underdog to make up as much as 3-5% in the last week of a campaign, a gap of 5% or more is not insurmountable. A candidate could lose the popular vote by up to 1-2% and still win the electoral vote total. If the gap winds up being 3% or more, it is highly unlikely that those votes will be distributed in such a fashion that would give them the electoral victory.

I think the Gallop expanded poll is a pretty fair assessment of how things will play out. As of today, they have the race 53%-43% for Obama with 4% undecided. Assume that most undecideds vote for the party in power which is fairly common and you wind up with a 6% gap on Election Day. The important thing for Obama is that even in the traditional Gallop poll, he still has 50% of the vote, which is important when you know the historical trends of the undecideds.

Electoral Vote Update with 10 Days to Go

Only 10 days to go until Election Day and here is how I see the Electoral Map:


This is a Obama 286 - McCain 139 total with 147 undecided and this is very conservative. I am only coding as red or blue states that I think there is no way they will go the other way. Of the 10 states I show as undecided, Obama is currently leading or tied in 8 with McCain holding small leads in Georgia and South Dakota. McCain would have to win all 10 of these states AND come up with at least 18 electoral votes in states I am listing as safely Democratic. They are hoping for PA with 21 electoral votes, but at the moment, it is still just a lot of wishing and hoping.

In today's Soccer Dad, Dance Dad Lawn Sign Poll, we had Obama 31, McCain 21. As one of our daughter's has traded in her soccer cleats for her ballet shoes to perform in The Nutcracker, my travels took me to some more traditionally Republican towns, but the gap is still pretty solid. If McCain isn't at least tied in the Philadelphia suburbs, he doesn't have enough voters in the "T" of Pennsylvania to offset the votes Obama will get in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

Some things to note in particular comparing this map to the map I listed two weeks out. West Virginia moved from undecided to McCain. However, Montana, South Dakota and Georgia, all very solid Republican states have had polls that make their outcome much less certain. If Obama wins any of those states, it will be the sign of a landslide.

McCain has actually started getting some traction with the Socialist label being slapped on Obama. It has been effective even though it ignores a lot of facts. Most of the people in McCain crowds cheering when McCain says that Obama wants to take money from small business and spread it around would be beneficiaries of Obama's tax cut proposals. A very small percentage of small businesses have profits over $250,000 and Obama's proposed tax increases are 1-3% of profits above that level. Also, my analysis of their respective Health Care plans indicates that Obama's is a modification of the current employer driven system and McCain's tosses that out the window and creates a much more socialized medical care program with a lot more overhead. But that's just me looking at the facts, so what do I know.

Friday October 24th Political Humor

So much good material today.

Let's start with another wonderful SNL Thursday night skit. Everything with Tina Fey just winds up being wonderful and in this one we also get Darrell Hammond and alumnus Will Ferrell.


If you have ever seen the great map graphics on CNN as John King explains how the election will play out, you were in stitches watching the map skit on SNL last night.


Here is CNN's Anderson Cooper talking about it:


Adding some music to your humor, here is Boybama with “Battleground for Your Heart”

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

Pull out the stars. Here is Ron Howard, going Back in Time to reincarnate himself as Opie Taylor and Richie Cunningham in support of Barack Obama.

See more Ron Howard videos at Funny or Die

Upping the star power even more, here is the starlet pulled into the Political limelight by John McCain commercials, Paris Hilton and perhaps the most popular President ever to appear on our TV screens, Martin Sheen as Jeb Bartlett.

See more Paris Hilton videos at Funny or Die

I searched for some funny McCain videos, but after several minutes of web surfing, I still couldn't find any. Happy to post them if you send me the link.

Turnout, Turnout, Turnout

In 2004, over 122 Million people voted for President of the United States. This was a 15% increase over the 105 Million who voted in 2000. This was still only 56% of the Voting Age Population. Only 3 states (Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine) had turnout levels above 70% of Voting Age registration in 2004.

By most accounts, the 2008 election will set a record for turnout. How big will it be? 130 Million? 135? 140?

One sign that this year's turnout will be a record is the record setting turnout so far in the 34 states and D.C. that have early voting, including reports in many areas where people waited on line for several hours before getting to vote. Will polling places be able to handle the Election Day turnout even with so many voting early? Maybe not.

Approximately 1/3 of all votes cast (perhaps 40-45 million) will be done prior to Election Day. This would be about twice the amount of early votes cast in 2004. The significance is that if something were to occur in the final 12 days of the election, it would not have as significant an impact. Votes cast cannot be changed, they are in the bank. This is just one additional thing working against John McCain this year.

The turnout numbers we listed above were based on all age eligible voters. On Election Day, it is also very important to look at just those who are registered to vote (on Election Day, if you aren't registered, it doesn't matter if you are eligible). Overall in the US in 2004, 73% of registered voters turned out to vote. Only 4 states (Washington, Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado) had registered turnout over 80%. That means that 27% of registered voters did not cast a vote. With about a dozen states expected to have a result within 5%, this 27% of no-shows is what the ground forces of both campaigns are focused on. The Republican ground game has always been impressive, but the Obama forces may be the best in the history of the Democratic party. We are probably in for some very big numbers across most states.

Has Obama vs. McCain been like The Rays vs. The Red Sox?

As we open the World Series tonight with my hometown Philadelphia Phillies vs. my parent's hometown Tampa Bay Rays (see what taking the Devil out of you will do) I found it interesting to look back at the AL series pitting the defending champion Red Sox vs. the Rays and see how that compared to the Presidential Campaign.

The representative of the incumbent team fell behind early but had shown on several occasions that they could come back from the brink of extinction.

Throughout the campaign the upstart team had a lot of people asking "Who are they" and "How did they get in this position".

Earlier in the season, even after a strong start, it was assumed the upstart would fade but they not only hung on but got even stronger.

The upstart pulled ahead to a commanding lead in their head to head competition before the incumbent could regroup.

The incumbent did pull back to even and made things exciting for a while.

Youth and consistency was on the side of the upstart and they didn't waiver or get rattled, they just kept playing the game the way they had all season.

I'd love to see the Phillies win the World Series, but I think this is the year of the upstart.

Two Weeks Out - Where do Obama and McCain Stand?

There are only 2 weeks left in this long race and the last few laps will be the fastest yet.

Looking at states that the consensus of polls gives one candidate at least a 5% lead gives us the following map:


This represents an electoral vote count of Obama 286, McCain 155 with 97 electoral votes undecided in 8 states, which would be an Obama win. Since I posted the Obama Supporters Reality Check last week, which showed the possibility of a McCain 274-264 victory, Virginia has been polling a steady lead for Obama between 5-10%. Also, today, McCain's campaign has been admitting that they need to have a strategy to get to 270 electoral votes that does not include Iowa, New Mexico or Colorado. Now I have put Iowa and New Mexico in Obama's column for some time, but McCain really needed Colorado to have a chance. He also really needs Virginia and despite recent polls, McCain's campaign believes they will find some way to win it.

But the math is still tricky for McCain. If he wins all the undecided states on this map and turns around Virginia, that still would leave him with only 265 electoral votes, still 5 votes short. So, guess what the McCain campaign has in their targets? My home state of Pennsylvania. Yup, you got it. The state that hasn't voted Republican in 20 years that dramatically increased its Democratic registration this year and has polls showing Obama up by 8-15% is their Last Stand. As you can see from my Soccer Dad Lawn Sign Polls, I'm not seeing anything that would indicate a change in local attitudes. Perhaps if McCain got every registered voter in the middle of the state to vote and there were torrential downpours all day in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, he might have a chance. Might. If this is their current 270 strategy, that is very thin.

Here is another way to look at Obama's current electoral vote lead. This is from the great site electoral-vote.com. Here is a graph showing electoral vote totals based only on states where a candidate leads by at least 5%, a gap that is generally considered very difficult to overcome at this stage of the campaign.


The solid red line is 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win. Here is what it looked like in 2004 between Bush and Kerry.


Any questions.

Did Hillary Clinton Make Barack Obama Unbeatable?

Last week, Barack Obama's campaign hit a couple of numbers that almost defy comprehension. In St. Louis, MO, under The Arch, Obama held a rally that attracted a crowd estimated at 100,000. That gathering gained all the attention, but in the same weekend there was another Obama rally on the other side of the state in Kansas City that attracted only 75,000. Also announced was Obama's fundraising total from September which set a record. Obama had the previous monthly record of $66 Million set in August. The total from September was $150 Million. $150 MILLION!!!!!!! This is almost double the entire amount John McCain gets from Public Funding and it came from over 1,500,000 people donating an average under $100 each.

So what does all this success have to do with Hillary Clinton?

Although at the time, many senior officials in the Democratic Party were very concerned when Hillary Clinton stayed in the Democratic Primaries until the end, in 3 important ways, Hillary Clinton immunized Barack Obama from potentially fatal McCain attacks, increased his base and gave a major boost to registrations in key states.

FIRST - The Rev. Wright bonfire occurred in the Spring and Obama had time to deal with it. Hillary definitely got traction again when this came out. However, it was old news by the Fall and credit goes to McCain for being steadfast in not resurrecting it. However, had Rev. Wright not hit the hot lights of mainstream media until a few weeks after the Republican Convention when Obama was already off balance, he might not have recovered.

SECOND - Barack Obama was not well known, even after he had taken the delegate lead from Hillary Clinton. Four more months of prime time coverage, especially after John McCain had pretty much locked up the Republican nomination, with more debates than we could count gave more and more Americans a chance to get to know Barack Obama.

THIRD - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina had primaries late in the season and both Clinton and Obama's campaigns made tremendous efforts signing up new voters. In each state, Obama is benefitting from having this registration advantage over John McCain.

This would be one of the most spectacular ironies of the entire election if Hillary Clinton was the person who put Barack Obama over the top.

The Worst Nightmare for Barack Obama and the Democratic Party

Yogi Berra famously said, "It ain't over until it's over". The Obama campaign and DNC is probably having that printed on t-shirts, hats and buttons and distributed around the country.

Nightmare #1 - Polls show Obama ahead by far enough that a high percentage of newly registered voters, especially young and minority, decide it is no longer important for them to vote thereby making the race a lot closer than most polls currently indicate.

Nightmare #2 - Virginia (polls close at 7PM Eastern time) and/or North Carolina (polls close at 7:30PM) have exit polls that show a convincing victory for Barack Obama and 1 or more National TV stations call the state for Obama. Without either state, Obama probably has 264 solid electoral votes, so either of these southern states in Obama's corner would put him over the top of the 270 electoral votes needed to gain the Presidency. This would be at 5:30PM in the mountain states and 4:30PM in the west. There would still be a lot of time before polls close in those states, but many new or sporadic voters may be compelled to not make the effort to vote. This could effect Obama's totals in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon and Washington, but it will certainly have an impact on the so-called "down ticket" races. This is one of several reasons why the Obama campaign has been pushing followers to vote early in states that enable all voters to cast their ballot prior to Election Day. Locking in their following now rather than risk the outcome to how events play out on Election Day.

Obama has raised an unbelievable amount of money ($150 Million in September alone, or almost twice the total of public funds McCain had to spend on his entire campaign) and a considerable portion of it is being spent on GOTV (Get Out the Vote). In addition to being necessary to overcome the traditional advantage that the Republican party has in "The Ground Game", it is the only effective counter to these 2 Obama Nightmare situations. This attentiveness to details and a thoroughness of organization could turn a close election into a landslide and would be a good portent for a government that is on its game.

Sarah Palin Meets Tina Fey

After being recruiting and cajoled to play Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, Tina Fey finally met her look alike, although it was a fleeting moment of togetherness on SNL.


The better skit with Sarah Palin actually had her saying not much of anything, which, if you think about it, is fairly appropriate.


Soccer Dad Lawn Sign Update for 10/18/08 - Obama 24, McCain 12.

Why Presidential Candidates Won't Tell the Truth About Taxes

People are more willing to somehow resolve the dissonance of lower taxes, lower deficit and more programs than that are willing to accept the truth that to do any of that taxes have to be raised.

Politicians have know this a long time, but in case Barack Obama and John McCain were thinking they might actually want to be truthful and level with the American public during the campaign, they only have to be reminded of the 1984 Presidential Campaign.

In honor of this age old tradition of skirting around the reality that in a situation as we are in, that at least some taxes have to be increased, we bring you Walter Mondale's Democratic Nomination Acceptance Speech from 1984:

Whoever is inaugurated in January, the American people will have to pay Mr. Reagan's bills. The budget will be squeezed. Taxes will go up. And anyone who says they won't is not telling the truth to the American people.
I mean business. By the end of my first term, I will reduce the Reagan budget deficit by two-thirds.
Let's tell the truth. It must be done, it must be done. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I. He won't tell you. I just did.

Walter Mondale leveled with the American public. The American public leveled him. Thus, the tax avoidance strategy continues.

Presidential Humor after the Final Debate

I was initially planning on posting a humorous skit on the last presidential debate on Saturday Night Live's Thursday Night Special. However, it wound up not being very funny. So here we have some other political humor that is very funny and not only involves both candidates, but uses the actual candidates. This is from the Alred E. Smith Memorial Dinner:






Word has it that Sarah Palin will actually appear on Saturday Night Live this Saturday, October 18th, 1 week earlier than I previously reported. No word yet on whether or not Tina Fey will also be there.

Oh, OK, well there was 1 pretty good piece on SNL Thursday. Major props to Darrell Hammond for playing Rev. Jessie Jackson discussing the Bradley Effect.

Final Presidential Debate - Who Let the Dogs Out?

William Ayers. ACORN. Joe the Plumber. All the old and new dogs were in the house tonight.

Joe the Plumber is the main topic of discussion. Poor Joe. He is only making $250,000 per year. Remind me not to feel sorry for plumbers. Joe the Plumber is Joe Wurzelbacher, a plumber from Holland, Ohio who expressed concerns to Obama during a campaign stop this past Sunday that if Obama were elected, Joe's taxes would go up when he buys the small business where he has worked for several years. You can hear the entire dialog between Obama and Joe the Plumber and decide for yourself.

So, the economist in me kicks in and tries to clear up a few things. Even though Obama uses the phrase "revenue of $250,000", I really don't think that is what he means. For a small business like Joe's, the profit (revenue minus expenses) of the business pulls directly over into his own taxes. The marginal tax rates of 36% and 39% that Obama refers to are marginal tax rates on Taxable Income (Line 43 on the 2007 1040 Form). Now if Joe has only $250,000 of total revenue (charges to his customers), there is no way he carries all of it over to his tax return as taxable income. He has to have expenses (materials, insurance, rent, vehicle, etc.) and may also have other employees for whom he has payroll, insurance and many other expenses. So the only way Joe gets hit by these higher marginal tax rates is if he is CLEARING more than $250,000. Even then, on your tax filing you have deductions for your dependents, property taxes, mortgage interest, child tax credits, etc. If after all of these deductions, Joe's taxable income is still above $250,000, well, that puts him in the top 5% of all wage earners in America, so even though he works long days, let's not feel too bad for him. Also this tax increase from the current 35% is a 1% increase (to 36%) on taxable income above $250,000 and then a 4% increase (to 39%) on income above some higher level. So lets say Joe is really making $350,000 after all tax deductions. For this $100,000 above the $250,000, his taxes will go up by about $2,000 over the current tax structure. For a guy making more than a third of a million a year, he shouldn't cry over $40 per week less in his paycheck. (Getting down from my soapbox now)

Some observations as they occurred last night:

A switch from talking about taxes to deficits. I don’t know yet what they want to do about health care, but we are already talking about a hatchet and a scalpel, so I am a little concerned. McCain made a passing yes to whether he could balance the budget in his first 4 years (I doubt it will be that easy, especially with all the tax cuts he is referring to).

Good comeback from John McCain on Barack Obama not running against George Bush and if he did want to run against Bush, he should have done that 4 years ago. It sounded like he said 3 years ago when I first heard it, which was kind of funny.

McCain scoring some points going head to head with Obama. Some good scripted points, putting Obama on the defensive, but Obama is often not responding directly and engaging in the battle.

On CNN, there are once again big difference in the scores between the men and women from the Ohio Uncommitted Voter group on most answers. The men are often scoring McCain higher and again the women are scoring Obama higher.

McCain putting out all the dogs. William Ayers. ACORN. McCain saying that the American people should judge when the facts are out there. Well the uncommitted Ohio voters, men and women voted a rare negative as McCain was saying this. Once again, regardless of the debate jab points that McCain seems to be making, but the all-important uncommitted voters just plain don't care, they want answers on the economy.

The running mate question. Could have sworn that was a setup from the Democrats. Obama didn’t touch criticizing Sarah Palin, just talking about Biden. When McCain spoke about Palin, men were voting very highly, women were flat on zero. This echos how they voted during the VP debate whenever Palin spoke. She is NOT bringing in women to vote for the Republican party.

Energy dependence. Both bailed a bit on the question of reduction of importation of oil during their first term. Both agreed instead that over a longer period of 8-10 years, could eliminate need for oil from ME and Venezuela.

Roe v Wade talked about a lot during a debate. It has been a while since we have seen that. This is not an issue that will help McCain appeal to uncommitted voters who tend to be moderate and are much more likely to be Pro-Choice. To a Pro-Choice person, the term Pro-Abortion is pretty highly offensive, so I think this issue really moved uncommitted voters into Obama's category.

Education - vouchers vs. charter schools. Just too complex a topic for anything of value to be said in 9 minutes and most people have no idea what will really work, they just want things to get better.

On the whole, it seemed like McCain did a pretty good job. If I had to award the debate to one of them, I may be more likely to give it to McCain because he was constantly on with great responses, he was sharp and on message. However, several polls after the debate showed an overwhelming (20% or more difference) advantage to Obama. This was pretty stunning to me. It means that most people have made up their mind and the undecided really don't care about the so-called "character issues". They just want to know who will be focused on making their lives better. For a while after the debate, I was thinking McCain, may have just turned momentum his way and this could get closer. The post debate polls tell me this could easily become an Obama landslide.

Reminder that tonight (Thursday, 10/16) at 9:30PM, Saturday Night Live runs their 2nd of 3 Thursday night half hour News specials on nothing but the election. No doubt there will be a takeoff on last night's debate.

Late Breaking Summary of Biden Palin Debate

OK, so this is definitely one-sided and 2 weeks late, but anything this funny needs to see the light of day:


Congratulations to Aden Nak for this piece of comedic genius.

3rd Presidential Debate - Last, Best & Final?

"Last, Best and Final" is a term usually used for bidding on contracts, often in Government circles. It is where you cut out all the fat and put forward your absolute best chance to win.

With just 3 weeks left until the election, tonight's final presidential debate at Hoftra University on Long Island, NY at 9PM Eastern time, might be John McCain's last chance to turn his campaign around and try to hold on to enough battleground states to pull out a win.

If the words spoken tonight were to come from John McCain's campaign, there is not telling just what might be said given recent campaign ads and rhetoric channeled through Sarah Palin. But this will be John McCain speaking. A decent man in a desperate position who is almost certainly at odds with the "win-at-all-cost" kamikaze tactics of those running his campaign. If John McCain is truly a maverick, what we might see tonight is him breaking away from his campaign and saying not what might be politically expedient, but what is in his heart. I don't know if that tactic will turn things around for him, but he would be at peace with it and it certainly couldn't do worse with the American electorate than the recent negative campaigning.

Obama and Biden have challenged John McCain to mention Obama's association with William Ayers to his face and McCain has at least verbally agreed to do just that. When a batter tells a pitcher to "go ahead and give me your heat", the pitcher better be throwing something better than just a fastball, because the batter will be sitting on it and waiting to hit it out of the park. I don't know if McCain will bite and try to discredit Obama on this association that is already old news that didn't get traction outside core Republicans. If he does, I have a feeling that Obama has a great counter punch ready. I hope for all concerned that the two of them just stick to the questions asked by moderator Bob Schieffer of CBS.

An interesting note today is that Christopher Buckley has been let go by The National Review, founded by his dad, the late William F. Buckley. It seems that Christopher's article in The Daily Beast over the weekend "Sorry, Dad, I'm Voting for Obama" led to an onslaught of hate mail at The National Review. In fairness to Rich Lowry, NR’s editor, and its publisher and former high school classmate of mine, Jack Fowler, Buckley soon thereafter submitted his offer of resignation which was quickly accepted. Buckley's next posting at The Daily Beast was "Sorry, Dad, I was Fired". There is a lot of anger and frustration in Conservative circles and I hope the pressure is released in a non-destructive fashion.

Obama Supporters Reality Check

Obama Supporters - Does this map scare you:


It should. This is a McCain 274 - 264 win. Even with recent poll results, this is not impossible.

Granted, this may be one of the only realistic combination of states in which McCain can win, but it is not outrageous. This would require McCain to take all the states leaning Obama (Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Wes Virginia, Ohio, Virginia, Florida) and hold onto the states that are leaning McCain (Indiana, North Carolina). Any state where Obama has less than a 5% lead is not out of reach with a strong Republican turnout. So while most sites are currently projecting a 350 vote tally for Obama, there are a lot of states that are marginally falling into his column.

If Obama wins any 1 of these states other than West Virginia or Nevada, he wins.

If Obama wins just West Virginia or Nevada, it is a 269-269 tie, which gets broken effectively by the House of Representatives with each state getting 1 vote. Most projections are that this would favor Obama, but it would become a bit of the Wild West again.

So what is today's lesson? If you are a McCain supporter, there is still hope. If you are an Obama supporter, don't think for a moment that this race is over and make sure you have a date with a polling place on November 4th.

One more dose of sobriety. An interesting new video is viewable online that covers the John Kerry campaign and shows how even late on Election night, they were sure they were not only going to win, but win by a lot. Inside the Bubble is well worth watching to understand how as Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til its over".

Is North Dakota a Battleground State?

At the bottom of my October 5th post on Going Negative, I mentioned an interest in seeing updated polls in North and South Dakota.

Well, look what we have here. A poll conducted Oct 6-8 has Obama leading 45-43. Now granted, this was conducted by Minnesota State University rather than one of the national pollsters, and is in sharp contrast to polls conducted by Rasmussen, American Research Group and Research 2000 in mid-September. However, those 3 polls were during the Sarah Palin honeymoon period and were in sharp contrast to polls conducted in July and August by the same national pollsters when it was being shown as a close battle.

Although some including electoral-vote.com consider this poll to be wrong or incredible, I think it is consistent with the response in other states over this period, but we haven't had a poll for almost a month in North Dakota. The incredible part was happening in the summer when Obama was close in a state that typically votes Republican by 20 points or more.

A Republican losing North Dakota is like a Democrat losing Rhode Island or Delaware. Not a big deal in the electoral college, but a sign that everything else is about to crumble.

Will Obama Experience a Reverse Bradley Effect?

I had been planning to run this post some time in the next week when I didn't have anything more timely to print. Then this morning I saw Electoral-vote.com refer to a University of Washington study going over basically the same thing. Oh well, I don't get credit for breaking the concept, but here is my take anyway:

A month or so ago, on a cable news show, I heard an interview with a voter from a Rust Belt state talking about the voting tendencies of his co-workers. He said that none of them publicly said they were voting for Barack Obama, but privately several had confided in him that was what their plan.

That got me thinking. Was the Bradley Effect just describing white voters reluctance to tell pollsters they were not voting for the black candidate because they felt that was not the politically correct thing to say? Or, is it really more general - a person believing that it is unacceptable in their local social circle to announce they are supporting a particular candidate? If the later is true, and given that the Bradley race in California in 1982 and a few others that may have been associated with the Bradley effect (Wilder, etc.) were 2 decades ago, is there a more likely outcome of this effect in the 2008 Presidential Election?

What if, in several circles, voters, especially white males, plan to vote for Barack Obama, but aren't sure how their co-workers, neighbors, bowling and softball league members, etc. would respond to it? What are the politically correct things to say in those social circles and might they be very different than in California, a fairly progressive state throughout?

I believe this effect will have some role in the outcome, but it will be very difficult to determine the level. There will be 2 other forces moving in the same direction that will be difficult to separate out. First, I still believe that most pollsters are underestimating the youth vote. The demographic between 18-30 is substantially less likely to not have a land line home telephone which is the predominant method of polling. While pollsters are aware of this fact I do not believe they have sufficiently accounted for it. Secondly, the Obama Ground Game and the passion of Obama voters, in particular young and/or African American voters will probably produce a turnout that is being understated by pollsters 'likely voter' totals.

As an aside, I am not sure I agree with the depth of the findings of the UW study. I believe some of what they experienced was a greater turnout among voters who favored Barack Obama. I think this will also play out in the general election as mentioned above, but although real, I don't think the Reverse Bradley effect was as large as they claim during the primaries.

Is Barack Obama Having an Eli Manning Experience?

After 3 years of at best up and down performances, Eli Manning led his team to the 2008 Super Bowl Championship. Besides his inconsistency, the biggest complaint against Manning was that he was too calm and never got emotional. As the Giants won their last 7 road games in the regular season, then 3 road playoff games and then upset the previously undefeated New England Patriots, Eli Manning was given tremendous credit for staying calm and keeping his team focused.

Since the beginning of his campaign, Barack Obama's top supporters have been concerned that his overly steady and calm demeanor made him seem distant, robotic and overly intellectual. As the debates have played out amid our economic crisis, Obama's steady, calm demeanor has enhanced his ability to communicate his ideas and previously undecided voters seem to be saying that although they don't know if his previous experience directly prepares him for being President, his calm consistency is exactly what they want in leadership in these times of great uncertainty.

Weaknesses becoming strengths, or changing views on the value of the "strong silent type"?

There are so many things that have broken correctly to enable Barack Obama to get to this point. A desire for change, an electorate that may just be free enough of prejudice to judge him on his merits, an incredibly unpopular president from the other party, an economy that trumps all other potential issues including political leadership experience, political ideology (liberal or conservative), military and foreign affairs experience, etc. Perhaps this is one of those times in our country's history when everything lines up to overwhelmingly usher in a President who was at best a long shot just 4 years earlier. In 1976, Ronald Reagan lost the Republican nomination to incumbent President Gerald Ford and at his age, it was assumed to be the end of his career. Four years later, he started what many Republicans believe is one of the greatest Presidencies in their party's history.

Capitulation and a Return to Normalcy

This title could (hopefully) be referring to the Stock Markets as on Friday, we began with a 700 point loss, rising back to almost even, dropping back to almost the same loss, then rose to a gain of 300 points then eased back down, but to a loss of only 128 points. All the possible sellers are probably out and that big intraday gain shows there are buyers ready to re-enter the market. There will probably be a lot of intraday activity, but hopefully the general trend from here on is upward.

However, this is a political rather than economics blog, so I am actually talking about John McCain. I think he has capitulated on the tactic of attacking Barack Obama's character at least to the point of encouraging people to believe caustic and non-factual opinions about Barack Obama. It was starting to get a bit scary. One spectator at a McCain rally this week was shouting 'Kill Him' (referring to Obama). That person detained, questioned and eventually released by the FBI. But a frequently run reel of a town hall rally in Wisconsin this week exhibits some of the depth of anger and frustration some McCain supporters are feeling.


Just a personal note that with the historically low approval rating of the incumbent Republican President, the state of the Economy and the propensity for the American voters to not give a party 3 consecutive terms in the White House, nobody should be surprised that "we are in this position".

After hearing a lot of attacks on Obama, McCain got to a point a few times during a campaign stop in Minnesota that he could not allow to remain unchallenged:



I admire John McCain's desire to take a stand at the presentation of these opinions. He has returned a bit to his old self that probably would have appealed to more moderates and independents than he has with the way his campaign has played out.

SOCCER DAD LAWN SIGN POLL for October 11 - Obama 21, McCain 13